reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Semiconductors and Technology Leading the Way We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 5700-5785 (up from 5500). We continue to be buyers in the 5700-5785 range if it gets there, and we would also be buyers at 5804-5854 gap support. We are expecting all-time highs soon on the SPX. Technolo...
LPG DORIAN LPG
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
RIGN TRANSOCEAN LTD.
TRT1 TRANSATLANTIC PETROLEUM LTD.
INSW INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS INC.
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
SDRL SEADRILL LTD.
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
VAL VALARIS LTD
ALCC ALTC ACQUISITION CORP
SMR NUSCALE POWER CORP
FRO FRONTLINE PLC
NE NOBLE CORP (NEW)
NNE NANO NUCLEAR ENERGY
TNK SEADRILL LTD
CPLPB TEEKAY TANKERS LTD.
TK CARGOPORT LOGISTICS CA PFD B
TEEKAY CORPORATION LTD.
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
RCKY ROCKY BRANDS
PZZA PAPA JOHN'S INTERNATIONAL INC.
PLAY DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
MSA MSA SAFETY INC.
MPC MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
MCHP MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED
KOP KOPPERS HOLDINGS INC.
GPC GENUINE PARTS COMPANY
DLTR DOLLAR TREE INC.
DG DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION
CVGW CALAVO GROWERS INC.
BEN FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC.
AAP ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC.
MEG. MEG ENERGY CORP.
FSLR FIRST SOLAR INC.
KALU KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION
PVH PVH CORP.
NHC NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORP.
ELF E.L.F. BEAUTY INC.
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
SCPH SCPHARMACEUTICALS INC
MTW MANITOWOC COMPANY INC.
TTEC TTEC HOLDINGS INC.
ADNT ADIENT PLC
ULBI ULTRALIFE
ELAN ELANCO ANIMAL HEALTH INC.
OCGN OCUGEN INC
ITOS ITEOS THERAPEUTICS
ETWO E2OPEN PARENT HOLDINGS INC (A)
PAX PATRIA INVESTMENTS
VAL VALARIS LTD
DINO HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
NE NOBLE CORP (NEW)
ADCT ADC THERAPEUTICS SA
SVV SAVERS VALUE VILLAGE INC
GUTS FRACTYL HEALTH INC
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Oliver Dunvold
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Oliver Dunvold
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
- Steffen Evjen
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- Njål Kleiven
- Stian Wibstad
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, Equinor reported Q1 results in line with expectations. However, we continue to see valuation downside due to Empire Wind risks and a likely sharp YOY drop in 2026e buybacks. OKEA also reported in-line Q1 results. In other news, Equinor announced it agreed to sell its 60% Peregrino stake at a solid price, although we believe the proceeds would have to support near-term shareholder returns to drive a positive share price reaction.
- Steffen Evjen
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, Vår Energi reported Q1 results very much in line with expectations. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and maintained its dividend. Also, OKEA reported a solid Q1, with production and prices slightly above our estimates. While a technical goodwill impairment reduces its dividend basket for 2025, we view this as non-material, as we do not expect any dividends before 2027. Meanwhile, we are 5% below consensus on Q1e EBIT ahead of Equinor’s Q1 results on 30 April (07:00 CET), ...
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- Njål Kleiven
- Stian Wibstad
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- Njål Kleiven
- Stian Wibstad
- Steffen Evjen
Solid NCS production in March
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for March showed liquids production of 1,972kboed (1.6% above its forecast) and gas production of 351mcm/d (0.4% above its forecast). Overall, production was 4.18mmboed (1.1% above its forecast), flat MOM, but down 4.9% YOY. Company-wise, the February production figures should be well known as most companies have already reported their production figures for Q1.
- Steffen Evjen
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
- Steffen Evjen
Stress testing
We have stress-tested our coverage universe at a USD60/bbl oil price, concluding that most names remain dependent on rising oil prices to warrant upside potential from current share prices. Moreover, unless oil prices move higher, we see increasing risk of cuts in shareholder distributions for Vår Energi and Equinor, while the risk appears lower for Aker BP. Overall, we remain cautious as macro risks remain tilted to the downside. We continue to prefer Aker BP as it screens best on valuation and...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, Equinor, Aker BP, and Vår Energi released their Q1 trading updates. Equinor’s realised liquids prices were broadly in line with consensus across all segments. Aker BP reported a modest production beat, 2% above consensus, with realised liquids and gas prices largely as expected. Vår Energi’s Q1 production was 2% below our estimate and consensus, while realised liquids prices met expectations and gas prices exceeded them by 4–11%.
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
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