Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK295.00) - aScope 5 delay in focus

As Ambu pre-released its Q3 results and new FY guidance in early July, the main news was the delay of the aScope 5 Broncho, which comes when several new competitors are entering the market. We believe the delay will be short, and management is confident aScope 4 is still superior to peers. Otherwise, there was little news in the Q3 report, with the exception of strong Visualisation growth in the US. We reiterate our BUY and DKK295 target price.

Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK295.00) - Changes may revive naysayers

The Q2 report was solid for the important Visualisation business but factoring in the flat QOQ guidance for Q3, the results did not differ much from consensus and were reflected in the unchanged full-year group guidance, we believe. The big surprise, however, was the launch of a v1.5 of the duodenoscope, the delays to the clinical trial of it, as well as delays to other GI scopes and the uncertainties created by this. We have lowered our target price to DKK295 (325) and reiterate our BUY.

Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK325.00) - Views from the inside

Following recent interviews with doctors, we doubt Ambu will sell many duodenoscopes before the second version is launched next year. However, our proprietary survey suggests significant long-term potential. Based on our deep dive, we believe other Visualisation products – particularly the cystoscope – should offset initially slow duodenoscope uptake. We have upgraded to BUY (SELL) and raised our target price to DKK325 (281) ahead of several potential positive triggers.

Ambu (Sell, TP: DKK281.00) - Strong Q1, but not strong enough

Ambu’s Q1 was much stronger than expected, driven mainly by a one-off order from the NHS due to Covid-19. This order had been part of the full-year guidance, which is why the guidance was not raised despite the solid beat. However, we had not factored in this order, which could prove critical to reaching the ambition, with the coming quarters set for volatility given very tough comparables. We have lifted our target price to DKK281 (262) but downgraded to SELL (HOLD).

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Ambu (Hold, TP: DKK262.00) - Strong start to 2020/21 discounted

We expect Ambu to report a strong start to the year, particularly in Visualisation, following the second wave of Covid-19. While not necessarily fully reflected in consensus, we believe this is already discounted in the stock after the recent strong performance. In addition, we believe updates on the duodenoscope could disappoint. We have raised our target price to DKK262 (222), but downgraded to HOLD (BUY).

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Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK222.00) - Duodenoscope study back on track

The Q4 results were a little on the soft side, with sales slightly better due to the legacy portfolio and profitability slightly weaker due to product mix. The 2020/21 top-line guidance was largely in line with consensus, while the EBIT margin guidance and CEO comments suggest investments are slowing. We view the updated clinical study timeline for the duodensocope yesterday’s key positive. We reiterate our BUY and DKK222 target price.

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Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK222.00) - Focus on 2020/21 guidance

Helped by easy comparables, we expect Ambu to report strong Q4 2019/20 results (due at 08:00 CET on 11 November), though the main focus is likely to be on the 2020/21 guidance. We believe Ambu could guide for 16–22% organic revenue growth and an 11–13% EBIT margin, largely in line with consensus. We also expect focus to be on recently launched products and the pipeline. We reiterate our BUY and DKK222 target price.

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Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK222.00) - Unexpectedly turbulent quarter

Ambu’s Q3 top line and new guidance were surprisingly weak, but mainly driven by the legacy business. However, the important Visualisation business surprised positively, pointing to sustainably higher post-Covid-19 market share. Geographical discrepancies raise the question of greater competition in the US, but regional Covid-19 guidelines are likely the main reason. GI product portfolio delays and new guidance have led us to lower our target price to DKK222 (234), but we reiterate our BUY.

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Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK234.00) - Guidance increase still possible

We believe the main focus with Ambu’s Q3 report will be to what extent its single-use bronchoscope has continued to benefit from the pandemic. While we had expected Ambu to have already increased its full-year guidance (at least for the endoscope units), we believe management could be playing it conservative. We also expect focus to be on the recently approved duodenoscope and the preparations for its commercial launch. We reiterate our BUY and DKK234 target price.

Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK234.00) - aScope Duo submitted for approval

Following the preliminary Q2 results and the increased top-line guidance in early April, the most exciting news in Ambu’s Q2 report was the submission of aScope Duo for FDA approval. As expected, Ambu also announced its decision to bring forward investments, and adjusted for one-offs we view the new EBIT margin guidance as largely in line with our expectations. We have raised our target price to DKK234 (216), and reiterate our BUY.

Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK216.00) - Covid-19 triggers guidance increase

Ambu yesterday lifted its 2019/20 organic growth guidance to 26–30% (16–22%) on higher demand for its single-use bronchoscope on the back of Covid-19, but suspended its EBIT margin guidance as we believe it is likely to bring forward investments. We view the new top-line guidance as conservative, and while it is one-off in nature it is likely to support broader adoption of its disposable technology longer-term. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK216 (196).

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Ambu (Buy, TP: DKK196.00) - Awaiting duodenoscope approval

We believe Ambu is on the verge of receiving FDA approval for its single-use duodenoscope, and we have delved into what we consider its considerable potential. This product is central to the short case, and its approval should support continued short-covering. We have also looked at Ambu’s Visualisation business including the ENT launch, which we conclude got off to a similar start to the aScope 3. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK196 (175).