A director at Bank Neo Commerce Tbk PT sold 100,000,000 shares at 585.000IDR and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last tw...
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Key takeaways from 2022 Hong Kong Policy Address. Sportswear: Near-term difficulties will not mask promising prospects. Results Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/ HK$252.80/Target: HK$387.70): 3Q22: Results come in within expectation as headwinds persist. INDONESIA Asian Gems Corporate Highlights Bank Neo Commerce (BBYB IJ/BUY/Rp800/Target: Rp2,300): Re-rating will depend on the rights issue. MALAYSIA Asian Gems Corporate Highlights TIME dotCom (TDC MK...
Since booking a monthly profit in Jun 22, BBYB continued to post monthly profits in the last three months and positive development in operations. We believe monetising its 18m users will be one of its main focus areas going forward as well as allocating higher provisions as a buffer in expectation of a deterioration in asset quality. The clarity and successful execution of the rights issue shall be a positive catalyst for the stock price. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rp2,300.
Digital banks continued to post monthly profit in Aug 22 on the back of robust loan growth, high yield, and lower CIR. Digital banks are gradually gaining market share in loans and deposits, and seeing positive developments in operations. However, we see hiccups in digital banks' asset quality as loans are scaling up and macro developments are making an adverse impact. We reiterate BUY on BBYB on the back of its positive development in profitability and market share as well as its cheaper valuat...
LDR gradually rose to 84% in Jul 22 (Dec 21: 79%) as the loan growth accelerated to 10.7% in Jul 22 (Jun 22: +10.4%) while deposit growth decelerated to 8.6% yoy (Jun 22: +8.9%). Given higher reserve requirement (GWM) and rate hikes, we expect limited upside on NIM from lower CoF. Some banks which have CoF are less sensitive to high rates and have an exposure on floating rate assets could benefit from the rate hikes. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, top pick BMRI and BBNI.
BBYB’s monthly profit turned positive in June, with net loss in 2Q22 narrowing to Rp195b (1Q22:417b). This was driven by: a) 47% qoq loan growth, b) 2.5% higher NIM, and c) 14% qoq decline in operational cost. The positive earnings momentum could continue in 2H22, supported by management’s various business initiatives for the rest of the year. Rights issue is slated to be completed in 2H22 which could increase BBYB’s CAR. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Rp2,300.
Bank Neo Commerce (BBYB IJ/BUY/Rp1,320/Target: Rp2,300) 1H22: Positive PPOP in June on the back of robust top-line and cost control. H.M. Sampoerna (HMSP IJ/HOLD/Rp930/Target: Rp900) 2Q22: Unable to pass on excise tax; downgrade to HOLD. United Tractors (UNTR IJ/HOLD/Rp32,300/Target: Rp33,000) 2Q22: Above expectations with NPAT rising 127.9% yoy. Astra International (ASII IJ): Technical BUY Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ): Technical BUY
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: Manufacturing PMI dips to 49.0% on broad-based weakness. Sector Consumer: Further improvement of external environment. INDONESIA Results Bank Neo Commerce (BBYB IJ/BUY/Rp1,320/Target: Rp2,300): 1H22: Positive PPOP in June on the back of robust top-line and cost control. H.M. Sampoerna (HMSP IJ/HOLD/Rp930/Target: Rp900): 2Q22: Unable to pass on excise tax; downgrade to HOLD. United Tractors (UNTR IJ/HOLD/Rp32,300/Target: Rp33,000): 2Q22: Above expectations with NPAT ...
We revise down our earnings estimates due to elevated costs. As BBYB is targeting to have 35m-40m registered users by 2024, CIR will remain elevated in 2022-23, which will result in a Rp608b PPOP loss this year. We also raise our CoC assumption by 6% this year to provide better loss-loan coverage as the bank has started offering direct digital loans through its mobile app. We believe BBYB will turn a profit in 2024. Maintain BUY. The recent sell-off on the stock offers a 110% upside to our new t...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales surged over 50% mom in 6-12 Jun 22. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: BYD, Geely, GWM, Zhongsheng and Minth. Update Minth Group (425 HK/BUY/HK$18.84/Target: HK$30.00): Reaching the inflection point of recovery. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$30.00. WuXi Biologics (Cayman) (2269 HK/BUY/HK$65.15/Target: HK$100.00): Rapid business expansion supported by growth opportunities in new modalities. INDONESIA Update Bank Neo Commerce (BBYB IJ/BUY/Rp1,095/Ta...
The deep price correction on digital banks gives an attractive risk-reward profile. We see an improvement in banks’ monthly profitability mainly due to high NIM and lower CIR. Seabank and ARTO continued to post positive net profit in Apr 22 while BBYB showed a narrowing PPOP loss at Rp44b in Mar 22 (Feb 22: -Rp108b). BBYB still leads in customer acquisition with more than 1m downloads per month. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Reiterate BUY on BBYB with a target price of Rp3,300.
In our view, investors could rotate from the financial sector to the technology sector and technology stocks could outperform after a 30-40% decline in some names. We upgrade the technology sector to OVERWEIGHT. Investors can consider establishing positions on consumer staple or cement names now, in anticipation of a decline in commodity prices. We also expect the recovery in retail to continue. Our picks: BUKA, BBYB, UNVR, ROTI, SMGR, INTP, MAPI and LPPF.
Strategy: Banking Stocks Could Decline In Rate Hike; Downgrade To MARKET WEIGHT Our picks : TLKM, EXCL MAPI, LPPF, JSMR, SIDO, KLBF, MIKA, BUKA, and BBYB. TRADERS’ CORNER Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ): Technical BUY Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ): Technical BUY
Based on our analysis, we conclude that share prices of Indonesian banks are likely to decline during a period that interest rates are hiked. Historically, large-cap banks declined by 20-30% while mid-cap banks declined by ~50%. We recommend investors to switch out of the banking sector into telco (TLKM, EXCL), retail (MAPI, LPPF), infrastructure (JSMR), healthcare (SIDO, KLBF, and MIKA) and technology (BUKA, BBYB).
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