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Integrated Diagnostics Holdings: 1 director
A director at Integrated Diagnostics Holdings bought 1,058,730 shares at 0.489USD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the la...
- Michel Said
- Mohamed Antar
- Passant Mohamed
Egypt healthcare 3Q20e results preview | Earnings confirm the rebound;...
Healthcare coverage 3Q20e earnings set to rebound; Pharma players to lag. We look for a q-o-q rebound in revenues and earnings for our healthcare coverage, chiefly underpinned by a hike in traffic, following the ease of mobility restrictions, and a slowdown in COVID-19 cases in 3Q20. Pent-up demand is seen as coming more in favour of healthcare services providers, with earnings growing on average by 11% (excluding SPMD). Conversely, pharma players are seen delivering muted earnings growth (exclu...
- Michel Said
- Passant Mohamed
IDHC LN | Strong beat during pandemic warrants an upgrade
Upgrade TP to USD4.43/share, turn buyers. A stronger-than-expected set of 2Q20 results led to an upward revision of our revenue evolution estimates (on higher revenue/test), hiking our 12M TP by 8% to USD4.43/share, offering a 20% upside and warranting an Overweight rating. IDH trades on a 2021e P/E of 15.3x, in line with the stock’s historical average, while offering a 2020-22e EPS CAGR of c20% and a 2020e dividend yield of c6%. Further upside from M&A activity is on the table, backed by a heal...
- Michel Said
- Passant Mohamed
IDHC LN | 2021 operational recovery priced in; Cut to Neutral
Stock fairly priced, 6% yield to resume in 2021e. We value IDH using five-year DCF model leading to a 12M TP of USD4.10/share, warranting a Neutral rating, revised downwards from USD5.00/share. This comes as we factor in lower traffic in 2020e, negatively impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak, and higher capex, uplifted by radiology expansion. IDH trades on a 2021e P/E of c16x, in line with its historical average, reflecting full operational recovery in 2021e. We pencil in a 100% payout ratio in 202...
- Aly Khairy
- Khaled Sadek
Robust year ahead but valuation is rich; Cut to N
Operations resilient but insufficient to fully offset FX dilution. We raise our 2018-22e EBITDA by c24% as we: i) hike revenue/test assumptions by c27% (assuming an average price increase of 10% p.a. vs. 6% previously), and ii) factor in a faster rollout of new branch additions. Despite the EBITDA hike, we raise our TP by 10% to USD4.6/share, as our higher USD:EGP assumption (16.5 from pre-float level) dilutes IDH’s valuation. Accordingly, we cut our rating to Neutral, on limited upside. IDH tra...
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
- Khaled Sadek
Headwinds ahead priced-in, reiterate OW
Cut TP by 33% to USD4.20/share on FX scarcity, clientele mix. We lower our 2016-20e EBITDA by an average of 17% p.a. as we cut patients’ footfall estimates by 14% (+6% y-o-y in 2017e) and on FX supply shortage (c30% of cash CoGS in FCY). The translation effect on valuation of assuming a USD:EGP rate of 12.5 vs. 9.5 in our previous update reduces our TP further. IDH trades on a 2017e P/E of 17x (at an FX rate of 12.5), c20% below EM peers and vs. c20x for MENA healthcare players.
- Mohammad Kamal
IDH Initiation report
​A play on the formalization of the healthcare space in MENA: As privatehealthcare grows in capacity, and ‘sponsored’ and insured patients receiveimproved coverage, demand for diagnostic testing grows in tandem. We see14% industry growth in terms of volume by 2018Scale economies, barriers to entry, and operating leverage should push RoEupwards, away from peer set (16% 17e vs. 13%)We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and a USD 4.5 TP (+26% vs. CMP)
- Khaled Sadek
Initiate with Overweight: Growth and yield in one
Initiate with a 12M TP of USD7.6/share, offering 29% upside. IDH is the top diagnostics player in Egypt, where per-capita healthcare spending sits 40% below emerging market levels, adjusting for income. IDH has superior i) EBITDA margin (c45% versus peers’ c20%), ii) FCF generation (FCF/sales north of 25%), and iii) growth prospects (2015-17e recurring EPS CAGR of 24%). Our TP implies a 2016e P/E of 22x, 8% below MENA healthcare providers’ 24x. IDH trades at 42% and 46% PEG discounts to MENA and...
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