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Tushar Manudhane
  • Tushar Manudhane

MOSL: GRANULES INDIA (Buy)-On track to build product pipeline as well ...

GRANULES INDIA: On track to build product pipeline as well as capacity (GRAN IN, Mkt Cap USD1.2b, CMP INR371, TP INR440, 18% Upside, Buy)   Availability of key starting materials to improve over near term Granules India (GRAN) delivered a better-than-expected 1QFY22 performance, led by better off-take in the Intermediates (PFI) and Finished Dosage (FD) segments. The impact of the sharp rise in key starting materials (KSM) for Paracetamol was offset by controlled opex, driving better-than-e...

Granules India Ltd: 1 director

A director at Granules India Ltd sold 109,000 shares at 321.220INR and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

EM Pullback Opportunity Supporting our global bull market thesis, uptrends remain intact for the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM). At this point, concerns surrounding the Wuhan coronavirus have led to some market setbacks and deterioration in market indicators, however they have not resulted in breakdowns. This is true even for areas of the market most-directly affected, including China (MSCI China) and emerging markets (MSCI EM). For these reasons and, as long as ther...

Tushar Manudhane
  • Tushar Manudhane

MOSL: GRANULES INDIA (Buy)-Another quarter of record high revenue/EBIT...

(GRAN IN, Mkt Cap USD0.5b, CMP INR140, TP INR165, 18% Upside, Buy) Formulation – the backbone of strong earnings trajectory ** GRAN is on a sustained earnings growth trajectory, led by higher business from forward integration, expanding its portfolio and reach. ** We raise our EPS estimate by 6.5%/7.3%/2.2% for FY20/21/22 to factor in (a) increased formulation business on account of ANDA launches in the US and (b) improving profitability due to forward integration and addition of higher-margin...

Tushar Manudhane
  • Tushar Manudhane

MOSL: GRANULES INDIA (Buy)-Strong end to FY19, momentum to sustain ove...

Granules India: Strong end to FY19, momentum to sustain over next 2-3 years (GRAN IN, Mkt Cap USD0.4b, CMP INR110, TP INR150, 36% Upside, Buy)   Formulation-driven growth: Sales increased 22% YoY to INR6.1b (our estimate: INR6.5b) in 4QFY19. Gross margin (GM) improved 740bp YoY (+270bp QoQ) to 46%, led by a superior product mix. Sales were largely driven by a 43%/22% YoY increase in FD /API sales, partly offset by a 14% decline in intermediates sales. Profitability supported by a superior...

Tushar Manudhane
  • Tushar Manudhane

MOSL: GRANULES INDIA (Buy)-Superior performance persists-outlook remai...

Granules India: Superior performance persists; outlook remains robust (GRAN IN, Mkt Cap USD0.3b, CMP INR92, TP INR140, 52% Upside, Buy)   GRAN delivers record quarterly EBITDA: GRAN's 3QFY19 sales came in at INR6.3b (v/s our estimate of INR5.5b), up ~54% YoY, led by API and formulation (FD) segment. Gross margin (GM) declined by ~600bp YoY (+200bp QoQ) to 43.2%, primarily due to increased competition and higher input costs. Despite sharp contraction in GM, GRAN was able to maintain EBITDA m...

MOSL: GRANULES INDIA (Buy) -Scoring well on execution; outlook remains...

Granules India: Scoring well on execution; outlook remains positive (GRAN IN, Mkt Cap USD0.3b, CMP INR97, TP INR140, 44% Upside, Buy)   Quarter characterized by strong revenue growth: GRAN’s 2QFY19 sales increased by 48% YoY to INR5.8b (our estimate: INR4.7b), led by API and Formulations (FD) segments. Growth, however, was partly offset by flat sales in Intermediates segment. Gross margin shrank ~430bp YoY to 45.3%, primarily due to higher input costs. Margins were stable (-20bp QoQ) as GRA...

MOSL: GRANULES INDIA (Buy)-Increased operating leverage to drive profi...

Granules India: Increased operating leverage to drive profitability (GRAN IN,Mkt Cap USD0.3b, CMP INR93, TP INR130, 40% Upside, Buy)   Revenue growth, and higher income from JVs and other sources drive profitability: GRAN’s 1QFY19 sales grew 17% YoY to INR4.5b (our estimate was INR4.8b), led by finished dosages and APIs. Gross margin declined from 53% in 1QFY18 to ~45% primarily due to increase in raw material prices. However, GRAN has been able to pass on the raw material price hike to cus...

MOSL: GRANULES INDIA (Buy)-Revenue in-line-margins below expectation

Granules India: Revenue in-line; margins below expectation (gran IN, Mkt Cap USD0.5b, CMP INR119, TP INR175, 47% Upside, Buy)   Sales rose 14% YoY to INR4.1b (est. of INR4.06b). EBITDA margin came in at 18% (-320bp YoY, -160 bp QoQ) v/s our expectation of 20.6%, because of: 1) high input cost, 2) forex fluctuations and 3) new capacity ramp-up. EBITDA stood at INR740m v/s our estimate of INR837m. PAT declined 10% YoY to INR350m due to lower margins and associate income (est. of INR433m). US...

MOSL: GRANULES INDIA (Buy)-Gearing up for next phase of growth-JV to b...

​GRANULES INDIA: Gearing up for next phase of growth; JV to be under pressure, but long-term prospects intact(GRAN IN, Mkt Cap USD0.4b, CMP INR124, TP INR200, 61% Upside, Buy)We recently hosted the management of Granules India (GRAN) at our Midcap Conference. We surmise that the JV business will be impacted in the near term due to deferral of sales by a key client, though the company maintains its medium-term revenue growth guidance (of 20-25% CAGR) from Omnichem JV. GRAN plans key filings (4-...

MOSL: GRANULES INDIA (Buy)-Story unfolding on expected lines-Vizag-bas...

​GRANULES INDIA: Story unfolding on expected lines; Vizag-based facility under JV with Omnichem receives EIR(GRAN IN, Mkt Cap USD0.5b, CMP INR122, TP INR200, 64% Upside, Buy)Granules India's (GRAN) Vizag facility was inspected by the US FDA in Dec-16, post which it was issued seven 483 observations. This is a new facility, and currently the JV is manufacturing pre-APIs from this facility. EIR will clear the road for the JV to reach out to innovators to supply APIs. We expect GRAN to make APIs ...

MOSL: GRANULES INDIA (Buy)-Combination of strong growth and multiple r...

​GRANULES INDIA: Combination of strong growth and multiple re-rating(GRAN IN, Mkt Cap USD0.5b, CMP INR149, TP INR200, 34% Upside, Buy)From being one of the largest Paracetamol API manufacturers for regulated markets, Granules India (GRAN) has now ventured into CRAMS and US Rx business, where it can leverage its competitive advantage of being a high-quality, low-cost producer. Despite delivering ~40% PAT CAGR over last five years, we expect GRAN to deliver ~35% PAT CAGR till FY20E. This will be...

MOSL: GRANULES INDIA (Buy)-Margin expansion continues-Strong FY18 guid...

​Granules India: Margin expansion continues; Strong FY18 guidance(GRAN IN, Mkt Cap USD0.4b, CMP INR146, TP INR200, 37% Upside, Buy)Sales declined 2.4% YoY to INR3.6b (5% above est.) in 4QFY17. EBITDA came in at INR785m (9% above est.), with the margin expanding 60bp YoY (+40bp QoQ) to 21.6% (est. of 20.8%). Notably, EBITDA margin has improved from a low of ~11% in FY13 to current levels, led by a change in product mix and capacity expansion. PAT rose 68.2% YoY (+17% QoQ) to INR457m (25.6% abov...

Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report

Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...

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