AI capex & replatforming; semicap into 2026; Apple, Arm & more.

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 34 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Grab 2Q25: increasing penetration & usage; margin expansion ahead. Bu...

America’s AI Action Plan. Our 5 quick takes.

The Trump administration published its AI Action Plan yesterday. Please click the link below to see our summary on the 5 most relevant points for tech infrastructure and the broader AI supply chain.

ASML: best positioned for 2026 in the Semicap pack. Upgrade to Buy, €7...

Consensus expects ASML to grow revenues 2% next year, compared to 6-12% for its peers. That is conservative. If anything, we see room for ASML to outperform, driven by high leading-edge exposure. Beyond 2026, we also expect ASML to grow in the upper end of its peer group. Normal order intake in 3Q would allow management to ease concerns around 2026 growth, and with the stock trading on 25x forward earnings we see limited risk of further de-rating. We hence upgrade the stock to Buy, €790 Target...

Semi cycle update. Much ado about nothing: Tariff and DeepSeek effects...

We publish today our quarterly and extensive review of where fundamentals, expectations, and valuations stand in semis and give our views on how investors should be positioned for the rest of the year. For details, please follow the link below.

Memory: China XPU ban lifted. Samsung most exposed. All benefit

Nvidia announced it can resume shipping XPUs to China. We’ve prepared a one-slider summarising the implications for memory vendors.

What makes a neo-cloud so special? Conversation with the CEO of togeth...

We hosted the second webcast of our AI transforming Industries series a few weeks ago. We had a fantastic conversation with Vipul Ved Prakash, CEO of together.ai, a GPU “Neo-Cloud” with tens of thousands of Nvidia GPUs deployed, powering open-source models and high-performance AI workloads at scale. Please see the link below our top thoughts on the back of this conversation, along with a full transcript.

Replatforming Analysts and Disintermediating SaaS? Top takes from our ...

We hosted the third webcast of our AI transforming Industries series last week. We had a fantastic conversation with Ketan Karkhanis, CEO of ThoughtSpot on how AI is disrupting business analytics. Please see the link below our top thoughts on the back of this conversation, along with a full transcript.

Deep dive into Chinese Semicap: How much of a headwind for Western pla...

Chinese WFE spending quadrupled in five years to $41bn, driven by aggressive local deployments, while domestic vendors rapidly gained traction, capturing 13% of local spending already, mostly in deposition, etch, and CMP. In this deep dive, we assess the competitiveness of key Chinese vendors, including Naura, AMEC, and SiCarrier. We estimate first the pace (and the scope) at (and on) which they could close the gap with their western peers. On that basis we estimate the share they can gain ov...

The Great Replatforming, part I – the Special Theory

Capex ROI is the trending question these days, but what does it actually mean? In a “replatforming”, capex are enablers of revenue growth and productivity enhancements, as long as they are the foundation for a good “right to make money” (a defensible competitive advantage) and meet good demand. Our “Special Replatforming Theory” looks at how it has been at play for a decade already at hyperscalers, and how we expect the next 10 years to play out, with AI bringing an even more capital-intensive...

Cisco Systems Inc: 2 directors

Two Directors at Cisco Systems Inc sold 24,404 shares at between 65.521USD and 65.536USD. The significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over th...

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 1Q25

We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 237 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.

Bible 1Q25 – Enterprise IT: AI drives Cloud growth, SaaS not reacceler...

Today, we are publishing the Enterprise IT section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Legacy IT spending is moderating after a strong 2H24, but public-cloud growth remains steady as AI demand offsets a slowdown in traditional workloads. SaaS revenue growth remains in the low-teens with...

Growth in Public Cloud: Where from? What’s next?

Growth in Public Cloud reaccelerated, in line with our expectations, and, if anything, even stronger than we thought, and shifting fast, with AI representing an increasing share of public cloud growth, and with the fast-growing crowd of native AI start-ups becoming a meaningful segment. We gathered all the initial datapoints at hand and looked at all angles we could, to provide a first perspective of how public cloud is growing today and where it is headed next.

Bible 1Q25 – Memory: all set for the upcoming HBM run.

Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. DRAM COGS increased 9% YoY but was down 15% QoQ, along usual seasonality and with China curbs hurting Samsung’s HBM. The outlook remains strong, with all manufacturers expecting HBM revenues to more than d...