Vicore Pharma: KOL & Mgmt Takeaways, buloxibutid's IPF positioning upd...

Yesterday, we attended a lunch organized by Vicore’s management with Dr. Francesco Bonella, an IPF specialist based in Germany who has advised companies such as Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche, Galapagos, and BMS in the development of compounds for rare lung diseases. Dr. Bonella is also an investigato

Vicore Pharma: Phase 2b ASPIRE trial making good progress

Vicore Pharma reported its Q1'25 results which mainly focused on balance sheet items and a recap of corporate achievements for the quarter, with notably i) a cash position at SEK1,049m, and ii) opex stable at SEK91.5m (vs SEK99.3m). We are encouraged to see the good progress in the phase 2b ASPIRE

Q1: Good progress with ASPIRE

Secures 20-year charter for MKII and Hilli FID

Golar LNG (Buy, TP: USD48.00) - Upside potential building

We believe focus for investors will be the potential contracts in Argentina rather than the Q1 report. Recent developments look to have left Golar LNG in pole position for two FLNGs for ~6mtpa Argentine LNG exports, and we would expect more visibility once the FID for Hilli is in place in Q2e. Moreover, we believe the project pipeline could allow for further announcements in due course as the company maintains an option for FLNG #4 at the shipyard. Hence, we find the risk/reward has improved des...

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

TSMC & ASML signals, Auto semi recovery, and more. The Tech Weekly Wra...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 14 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1050.00) - Solid Q1 despite tough landscape

We view the balance of 2025 as highly uncertain given tariffs and the demand outlook, but view Autoliv’s solid Q1 and reiterated 2025 guidance as signs of confidence from the company. We believe Autoliv will have to carry at least some of the tariff costs (management says all will be passed on), and thus remain below the 10–10.5% EBIT margin guidance (we estimate 9.9%). We reiterate our BUY, as we see almost 40% EPS growth in 2024–2026e. We have raised our 2025e adj. EBIT by 6%, but cut our targ...

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1135.00) - Still favoured in the sector

We expect the 2025 adj. EBIT margin guidance of 10–10.5% announced pre-tariffs to be reduced (we forecast 9.6%). For Q1, we estimate organic sales up 1.7% YOY (consensus -2.1%) and are 2% below consensus on adj. EBIT (we forecast an adj. EBIT margin of 7.6% versus consensus of 8.0%). We expect EBIT to grow by c40% until 2027e, and the valuation is c20% below the historical average on NTM P/E, with capacity for further share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK...

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Set for spicy growth

Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...

Vicore Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK38.00) - Focus on ASPIRE recruitment

The Q4 report was a non-event in our opinion, and we expect the market to focus on the recruitment pace for the ongoing phase IIb ASPIRE trial in IPF. The trial started recruiting in H2 2024 and c32 of a total 92 clinics are now actively recruiting patients. We expect the trial recruitment to be completed in early 2026 and data read-out in H1 2027 (52 weeks of treatment). We reiterate our BUY and SEK38 target price.