Tele2 AB: 1 director

A director at Tele2 AB bought 4,500 shares at 101.150SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

The Capital Goods Data Miner - May 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Hexagon, Metso, Sandvik, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Sandvik AB: 2 directors

A director at Sandvik AB sold 5,000 shares at 227.800SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 42/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

April sales: +2.8 comparable (positive calendar)

Rana Gruber (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Volatile iron ore prices

Rana Gruber reported a mixed set of Q1 results, with accounting and hedging effects as well as volatile iron ore prices, which blurred much of the underlying operational result. We have lowered our 2024–2026e EPS by 1–3% on the results and our updated forecasts for the latest iron ore futures curve and FX changes. We continue to find a 2024e P/E of 7x on current spot rates attractive, while we await the benefits of the company’s upgrade to Fe 65% and potential further upgrades longer-term. We re...

The weekly navigator

In the past week: 1) we hosted an investor lunch with Latour’s CEO Johan Hjertonsson at our Stockholm office; and 2) Webrock Ventures reported its first quarterly results as a listed company, with its sights set on financial self-sufficiency by 2026.

Skanska (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Q1 miss, but underlying solid

Q1 EBIT missed Infront consensus and our forecast, mainly due to a couple of one-off charges. Order intake was broadly as we expected, but sales and starts in Residential Development (RD) beat our forecasts despite Boklok still struggling with profitability. However, given market expectations of falling interest rates, we expect divestments of commercial assets to increase. We have cut our 2024e EPS by c5% on the Q1 writedowns, but raised our 2024–2026e EPS on an improved residential outlook. Wi...

In line adjusted for EO

Axactor (Hold, TP: NOK4.60) - Challenging collection climate

Soft collections in the Nordic and German markets, and corresponding portfolio revaluations, led to a 9% YOY drop in total income in Q1. Although the EUR100m–200m annual investment target was reiterated, we expect modest activity short-term due to limited NPL volumes at attractive prices. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 10–14%, primarily reflecting lower collections, lowered our target price to NOK4.6 (6.8), and downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY).

Expanding the portfolio

We expect ~30% more production in 2024. Bestla field grants valuable long-term prospects. Bond seems de-risked – decent short-term carry.

Tougher to collect in Northern Europe

Cash EBITDA -20%/-15% vs. ABG/consenus, margins 62% which filter into poor EBIT -25%/-22% vs ABG/cons. ERC down 2% q-o-q = cons down 3-10% = stock down -7-13%.

Copper is golden - Sandvik up to BUY

Copper and gold rally will turn order growth around in H2. Also secular drivers benefiting both Epiroc and Sandvik. Sandvik has highest value upside - up to BUY.

To catch up with improving fundamentals

Increasing Mining optimism after copper, gold rally. Adj. EBITA'24e-26e +2-3%. Upgrade to BUY (Hold)

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The Q1 reports proved that sector companies could maintain record-high margins despite volume declines.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we raised our target price on Latour to SEK285 (280), but reiterated our HOLD; 2) Kinnevik-owned Lunar raised SEK282m of new capital; and 3) we will host an investor lunch with Latour’s CEO Johan Hjertonsson at our Stockholm office next week.

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.40) - Q1 misses on EBIT and KPIs

EBIT of EUR-8m was below our estimate and Vara consensus, and unit sales missed too. The inventory of unsold completed homes for sale continued to increase. The company states it will continue to focus on its capital releases, with sale of its stake in the Tripla shopping mall and reducing unsold inventory as the major moving parts. However, YIT’s markets are weak and its debt remains elevated. We reiterate our SELL and EUR1.4 target price, while we believe new equity might be also needed.

Rebound will take a few years

Minor changes to underlying estimates. Sold units lagging peers. Downside risk to consensus in 2025/2026.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1600.00) - In the fast lane

Despite beating guidance in Q1, Autoliv kept its 2024 guidance intact. In our view, this adds upside potential to consensus for 2024 and some credibility to the 12% medium-term EBIT margin target. Although we estimate 29% YOY growth in 2024e adj. EBIT, fundamentals are likely to be on the sidelines as we expect the company to resume its large share buyback programme in the coming weeks (the mandate has USD873m, c9% of the market cap, left for 2024). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our targe...

Lime Technologies (Hold, TP: SEK340.00) - Softer Expert Services marke...

The Q1 sales were a bit soft, but compared to our forecast this appears fully related to Expert Services (subscription revenues overall solid). We have trimmed our net sales and EBITDA estimates by c2% for 2024–2025. We reiterate our HOLD and have reduced our target price to SEK340 (345).

Brighter beyond Q2

Q1'24 EBIT 6% below our expectations, driven by BTT. Soft short-term outlook but brighter beyond Q2'24e. '24e-'26e down 4-3%, TP cut to EUR 17.5 (18.5), HOLD.