reports
- Chris Hoare
CelcomDigi (Buy, TP: RM6, +80%) Q3 24 Quick Take: Lowered service rev...
Service revenue trend remained muted on SIM consolidation and a conscious effort to flush out rotational churners in Prepaid, resulting in a downward revision in service revenue guidance to “flat to slight decrease” from “low single digit increase” prior.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Chong Lee Len
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum
- Jonathan Koh
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Malaysia Research Team
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, November 04, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. Sector Aviation – China Airlines: 3Q24 earnings a slight miss; expect losses in seasonally weak 4Q24. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Macau Gaming Oct 24 GGR up 7% yoy and...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
00285 BYD ELECTRONIC (INTERNATIONAL) CO. LTD.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
7113 TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD.
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
5162 VSTECS
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
AD2 AIR CHINA LIMITED CLASS H
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
1055 CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
0670 CHINA EASTERN AIRLINES CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS H
AXIATA AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
MAXIS MAXIS BHD
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
RHBBANK RHB BANK BHD
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
ECW ECO WORLD DEVELOPMENT GROUP
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
TDC TIME DOTCOM BHD
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CDB CELCOMDIGI BHD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
- Chong Lee Len
- Jo Yee Ng
Telecommunications - A Surprise Award Of Second 5G Network To U Mobile
A Surprise Award Of Second 5G Network To U Mobile The second 5G network award to U Mobile comes as a surprise and we expect this to have an overhang on Maxis and CelcomDigi as both heavyweights weigh their options moving forward. We note that U Mobile has invited CelcomDigi and TM to participate in the rollout of its second network. Potential winners are telco contractors such as edotco, OCK, EdgePoint Towers and Naza Communications. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. The sector currently trades at 6.2x 12...
- Chong Lee Len
- Jo Yee Ng
Telecommunications - 2Q24: In Line; Transition To Dual Wholesale Netwo...
2Q24: In Line; Transition To Dual Wholesale Network For 5G By Year-end 2Q24 results came in within expectations, with sector earnings contracting 5% yoy and 2% qoq. The quarter was characterised by: a) 2% yoy service revenue growth, with Maxis achieving 5% yoy growth; and b) strong underlying demand for home broadband amid price competition. Following the results, we project sector earnings to grow 3%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Our top picks are CelcomDigi, Maxis and TIME dotCom. We expect the sec...
- Chong Lee Len
- Jo Yee Ng
CelcomDigi (CDB MK) - 2Q24: In Line; 2024 Gross Synergy Savings To Sur...
2Q24: In Line; 2024 Gross Synergy Savings To Surpass Previous Guidance CELCOMDIGI reported a 2Q24 net profit of RM406m (+8% qoq; 18% yoy). Excluding a RM14m one-off cost booked in the quarter, 2Q24 core net profit came in at RM420m (-14% qoq; -20% yoy), in line with our expectations. Management expects 2024 gross synergy to surpass the previous guidance of RM700m, partly offset by integration costs. Maintain BUY with a DCF-based target price of RM4.50. The stock trades at 8.4x EV/EBITDA, -0.5SD ...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ringo Tang Chi Yu
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, August 20, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results China Resources Beer (291 HK/BUY/HK$24.00/Target: HK$41.30): 1H24: Premiumisation lags; trim sales volume and profit targets. China Resources Building Materials Tech (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.57/Target: HK$1.83): 1H24: Below expectations; hopeful on pent-up demand in 2H24. CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical Co (300765 CH/BUY/Rmb23.39/Target: Rmb33.00): 1H24: Results satisfactory; R&D and CSPC Baike acquisition well on track. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/BUY/Rmb20.25/Target: Rmb23.30): 2Q24: ...
MAPI MITRA ADIPERKASA
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
IJM IJM CORP BHD
CAB CARLSBERG BREWERY MALAYSIA B
SSG SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD
KLK KUALA LUMPUR KEPONG BHD
PROP PROPNEX LTD
300765 CSPC INNOVATION PHARMACEUTICAL CO L
CDB CELCOMDIGI BHD
1313 CHINA RESOURCES BUILDING MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS LTD
2008 HANS LASER TECHNOLOGY CO LTD
- Chong Lee Len
CelcomDigi (CDB MK) - Flow Through Of Merger Synergies
Flow Through Of Merger Synergies Network integration works are expected to yield savings of RM5.5b over five years. With a target completion of 75% by end-24, we believe CelcomDigi is set to see a flow through in merger savings by 2H25. The stock offers a three-year earnings CAGR of 15% and 5% dividend yield. The potential monetisation of its tower assets may be a catalyst. The stock has retraced 10% ytd and we see emerging value. Upgrade to BUY with an unchanged DCF-based fair value of RM4.50.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, July 25, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$88.00/Target: HK$118.50): 2Q24: Weak results; advanced packaging progress remains intact. Maintain BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb35.41/Target: Rmb86.00): 2Q24: Earnings up 25% yoy/qoq, in line. Maintain BUY. Target price: Rmb86.00. Update Pinduoduo (PDD US/BUY/US$134.24/Target: US$200.00): Navigating against unwavering geopolitical concerns. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp1,630): 1Q24 reve...
- Chong Lee Len
- Wei Xiang Ku
Telecommunications - Transition To Dual Wholesale Network For 5G By En...
Transition To Dual Wholesale Network For 5G By End-24 Telcos have been invited by the government to submit proposals to develop Malaysia’s second 5G network. The government also said that telcos are restricted to holding equity only in one entity. As such, consortiums forming entity B (second network) will sell their share in DNB. The government will also exit DNB. We expect the government to announce a second network by end-24. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks are TIME and MAXIS.
- Chong Lee Len
- Wei Xiang Ku
Telecommunications - 1Q24: Results In Line; Transition To Dual Wholesa...
1Q24: Results In Line; Transition To Dual Wholesale Network For 5G In 2H24 1Q24 results were within expectations with earnings growth of 14% yoy on the back of a 2% service revenue growth, higher wholesale income (as TM and TIME benefit from burgeoning data centre build-ups) and good cost discipline. We expect the sector to transition to a dual wholesale network by 21 June. Key events to look out for in 2H24 include: a) fixed-line price competition, and b) synergistic savings from CelcomDigi. Ma...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Chong Lee Len
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, June 12, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Dragon Boat Festival: Consumer services, experiential spending, and lower-tier cities lead growth. INDONESIA Update Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ/HOLD/Rp4,300/Target: Rp4,300) Issuance of new shares to complete the divestment process. MALAYSIA Sector Telecommunications 1Q24 earnings up 14% yoy on the back ...
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
600132 CHONGQING BREWERY CO.LTD CLASS A
000858 WULIANGYE YIBIN CO. LTD. CLASS A
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
02331 LI NING COMPANY LIMITED
6012 MAXIS BHD.
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
600887 INNER MONGOLIA YILI INDUSTRIAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
600872 JONJEE HI-TECH INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL HOLDING CO. LTD. CLASS A
INCO VALE INDONESIA
6888 AXIATA GROUP BHD.
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
603288 FOSHAN HAITIAN FLAVOURING & FOOD CO. LTD. CLASS A
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
06862 HAIDILAO INTERNATIONAL HOLDING LTD.
T TELEKOM MALAYSIA BHD
BAUTO BERMAZ AUTO BHD
BRC BRC ASIA LTD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
1368 XTEP INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
TDC TIME DOTCOM BHD
6186 CHINA FEIHE LTD
MNSO MINISO GROUP HOLDING ADS (N SHARES)
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
09922 JIUMAOJIU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LTD.
ME 23ANDME HLDG CO
CK CH. KARNCHANG PUBLIC CO LTD
CDB CELCOMDIGI BHD
TIMECOM 029 GROUP SE
- Chong Lee Len
- Wei Xiang Ku
CelcomDigi (CDB MK) - 1Q24: In Line; Earnings Driven By Gross Synergy ...
1Q24: In Line; Earnings Driven By Gross Synergy Savings CelcomDigi’s 1Q24 net profit rose 18% yoy but fell 14% qoq to RM377m. This included a RM140m VSS cost booked in the quarter. Stripping this out, 1Q24 core net profit came in at RM487m (-5% yoy; -3% qoq), in line with expectations. The group estimates 2024 gross synergy of RM700m, partly offset by network integration cost. Maintain HOLD with a DCF-based target price of RM4.50. The stock trades at 9x EV/EBITDA, -1SD below its five-year mean, ...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Chong Lee Len
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Kong Ho Meng
- Stevanus Juanda
- Sunny Chen
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, May 29, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK/BUY/HK$3.38/Target: HK$4.20): FY24: Bottom line beat estimates; guiding 15% yoy revenue growth and net margin of 5% in FY25. INDONESIA Update Astra International (ASII IJ/SELL/Rp4,510/Target: Rp3,900): Sales declines for the 10th consecutive month; weakness to last till end-24. MALAYSIA Results CelcomDigi (CDB MK/HOLD/RM4.00/Target: RM4.50): 1Q24: Within expectations. Stock offers 4% dividend yield for 2024 as management focus...
- Chong Lee Len
- Wei Xiang Ku
Telecommunications - 4Q23: Results Mixed; Special Interim Dividend Fro...
4Q23: Results Mixed; Special Interim Dividend From TIME In 4Q23, CelcomDigi and Axiata reported better-than-expected earnings while TIME’s earnings were adversely affected by competition and network costs. After the results, we estimate pedestrian 2024 sector earnings growth of 4% yoy to RM5,872m. Key events to look out for in 1H24 include: a) fixed-line price competition, b) potential award of DWN, and d) synergistic savings from CelcomDigi. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick is TIME for its attr...
- Chong Lee Len
- Wei Xiang Ku
CelcomDigi (CDB MK) - 2023: Results Above Expectations; Earnings Drive...
2023: Results Above Expectations; Earnings Driven By Gross Synergy Savings CelcomDigi’s 4Q23 net profit fell 5% qoq but rose 3% yoy to RM435m. The qoq decline was due to higher staff, maintenance and tax. 2023 net profit of RM1.6b (-21% yoy) is above our expectations but in line with street estimates. The group declared a fourth interim net DPS of 3.5 sen, bringing full-year net DPS to 13.2 sen (yield of 3%). Maintain HOLD with a DCF-based target price of RM4.50. CelcomDigi will continue to focu...
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Jun Sian Tan
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, February 21, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: A closer look at China’s property market: Takeaways from project visits in Shenzhen/Guangzhou/Shanghai/Suzhou. Update Meituan (3690 HK/HOLD/HK$72.75/Target: HK$70.00): 4Q23 results preview: Pressured margins given persisting headwinds and competition. Downgrade to HOLD. INDONESIA Sector Banking: Loan growth to support earnings growth in 2024. MALAYSIA Results CelcomDigi (CDB MK/HOLD/RM4.37/Target: RM4.50): 2023: Above our expectations but in line with street est...
- Chris Hoare
ASEAN Telcos Outlook 2024; Continued market repair in Indonesia, Thai...
After a decent 2023, in 2024 we are likely to see further evidence of market repair in Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia driven by consolidation in both Mobile and Broadband. The economic outlook in the region is generally positive too, helped by post-Covid tailwinds, and China decoupling.
- Chong Lee Len
- Wei Xiang Ku
CelcomDigi (CDB MK) - Reaping Integration Benefits For The Enlarged En...
Reaping Integration Benefits For The Enlarged Entity CelcomDigi is focused on network integration with the aim of reducing physical tower assets by 30% in the longer run. We expect 2024 net profit to recover by 30% yoy in the absence of lumpy accelerated depreciation seen in 2023. Key events include: a) potential 5G dual wholesale network, b) faster-than-expected cost synergies, and c) rational postpaid competition. The stock trades at 10x EV/EBITDA (mean) and offers 4% dividend yield for 2024. ...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, January 15, 2024
REGIONAL Sector Banks: ASEAN Banks: quarterly update. Plantation: Maintain 2024 CPO ASP at RM4,200/tonne, with pricing expected to be higher in 1H24. Accumulate Malaysia upstream players and companies with better-than-peers production growth. GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation: Dec 23 CPI inflation beat expectations but deflationary pressure remains. Money Supply: Dec 23 M2 and credit growth slowed, expect further monetary easing. Trade: Dec 23 trade numbers beat expectations; auto exports conti...
- Chong Lee Len
- Wei Xiang Ku
Telecommunications - 3Q23 Results Within Expectations; 2024 To Be Rang...
3Q23 Results Within Expectations; 2024 To Be Range Bound In 3Q23, both CelcomDigi and TM reported better-than-expected earnings. The key drivers were CelcomDigi’s merger savings and TM’s positive tax credit. After the results, we project a 2023 sector earnings contraction of 15% yoy to RM4,909m. Key events to look out for in 1H24 include: a) fixed line price competition, b) 80% 5G coverage, c) potential award of DWN, and d) synergistic savings from the merger of Celcom and Digi in 2024-25. Maint...
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