Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Scope for a revaluation

With ample evidence of improved demand for paper board and a better price outlook for market pulp, we believe earnings headwind has now turned into a tailwind. We also expect earnings to be driven by incremental volumes after capacity expansions at existing mills. After ambitious investments over the past three years, the company’s paper board capacity is up c25%, while its net long pulp position has increased by close to 30%. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to EUR11 (...

March: Pulp shipments +8% y-o-y

Circio Holding (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Recommendation and target price wit...

We continue to like Circio’s focus on the circRNA programme and believe it will be able to secure a partnering deal in 2025. However, the funding situation is unclear. It recently announced an intention to raise cNOK50m–60m in Q2. As we have limited input on the terms of the upcoming capital raise and Atlas Capital Markets’ (the counterparty of the convertible bond facility announced in February 2023) degree of participation and conditions, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK630.00) - US royalties higher than expected

Q1 earnings were much higher than we and consensus expected, despite a top-line miss. While Buvidal sales were c6% below our forecast, Brixadi royalties of SEK26m were well above our SEK15m estimate. The 2024 guidance was reiterated. Following the results we have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 13% on average, and in turn our target price to SEK630 (550). We reiterate our BUY.

CAMURUS reports Q1, showing encouraging sales uptake in the US

Camurus reported its Q1 2024 results, where i) total revenues came in at SEK 390m (vs css SEK 405m, -3.7%), of which SEK 364m product sales (+3% QoQ at CER), ii) profit before tax came in at SEK 97m (vs css 80.3m, +20%), and iii) a cash position at SEK 2,274m. We observe a steady increase in the nu

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK550.00) - Solid start to 2024e

We forecast solid Q1 earnings, albeit down slightly YOY on a higher operating cost base (results due at 07:00 CET on 8 May). However, with Q1 last year marking the low point of R&D spend in 2023, we do not find this alarming. We believe the company will reiterate its 2024 guidance. We reiterate our BUY and SEK550 target price.

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...

One step forward, two steps back

Q1: 9% beat, but Kemi shutdown to weigh on Q2. Early-cyclicals improve, late-cyclicals to follow. Kemi and Husum projects could add >50% to EBIT. HOLD.

Metsa Board (Hold, TP: EUR7.70) - Positive start to 2024

The Q1 results were largely in line with our expectations, and the long-lasting market headwind finally turned into a tailwind, enabling paper shipments to rise 20% QOQ. However, while we expect market conditions to remain fairly healthy in 2024 and beyond, Metsa Board looks unlikely to reap the benefits due to interruptions at the Kemi flagship mill during Q2. With favourable business exposure to packing and pulp, we reiterate our HOLD and EUR7.70 target price.

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - Q1 slightly on the soft side

Q1 EBITDA was c2% below consensus, with a somewhat soft mix, as Extrusions and Aluminium Metal, the two largest segments, were below forecasts. We have increased our 2024e EPS by 7% on the USD2,600/t spot aluminium price, and 2025–2026e by 2% on the Q1 results. We are 30% below consensus 2025e EBITDA; we do not see enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as the price appreciation in recent weeks suggests. We still expect aluminium prices to decline with lower ...

Demand growing faster than supply - BUY

Q1'24 EBITDA of NOK 5.4bn, '24e-'26e EBIT up 2-3% post report. Market tightening rapidly in Q1 - demand up 5%, supply up 3%. Reiterate BUY — TP NOK 75.

EBITDA 2% below on higher cost

Metsa Board (Hold, TP: EUR7.70) - Underlying earnings set to rise

With rising pulp prices alongside evidence of more normal conditions for the paper business, we are convinced that Metsa Board will show much stronger earnings compared to 2023, which represented a cyclical low point. However, in the short term, H1 earnings are set to be affected from the Finnish strike and long-term interruption at the Kemi mill, something that is likely to linger on the share price. We reiterate our HOLD and our target price of EUR7.7.

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - 30% below 2025e EPS consensus

We expect aluminium prices to come down with falling global energy prices, and reiterate our SELL and NOK50 target price. We are 30% below consensus on 2025e EBITDA; we do not see large enough demand to raise aluminium prices above the marginal producer’s cost, as suggested by the price appreciation in recent weeks, we believe. We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK6.2bn (results due at 7:00 CET on 24 April), driven by high hydropower production volumes in the quarter. We have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by ...

Executing as planned with a PDUFA date set for 21st October 2024 in Ac...

This morning Camurus announced that the FDA has accepted the NDA for Oclaiz (CAM2029) for the treatment of patients with acromegaly, with a PDUFA target action date of 21st October 2024. Following the FDA decision, we expect a launch in early 2025 and we remind that we believe that it has the poten

CAMURUS: After strong 2023, cautious 2024 guidance highlights need for...

Yesterday, Camurus reported its FY 2023 results, where i) total revenues came in line with expectations at SEK 1,717m, of which SEK 1.299m product sales (+39% YoY), ii) profit before tax were at SEK 549.5m (estimate SEK 582.9m), and iii) FY 2024 guidance pointing towards total revenues of SEK 1,740

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK550.00) - Overreaction to 2024 guidance

The Q4 results were in line with the pre-announced figures from the capital raise earlier this year. However, we believe the 2024 guidance was perceived as weak for the top line and PTP. The latter guidance included cSEK300m in investments for building a commercial organisation in the US, well above what we and the market expected. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK550 (425), after adding a proportion of the value of the pipeline to our valuation.

Norsk Hydro (Sell, TP: NOK50.00) - Little support for 22% EPS growth

Q4 EBITDA was 13% below consensus and we consider consensus 2023–2026e EPS CAGR of 22% too high (NOK7.8 in 2026e). Norsk Hydro’s earnings are closely linked to energy prices, and we expect global energy prices to continue to decline. Annually, EPS averaged NOK2.2 in the 10 years prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with lower energy prices. We have cut our 2024-2025e aluminium price forecast by USD50/t and our Norwegian electricity price by EUR10/Mwh, and our 2024–2025e EPS by 6–9%. We reitera...

Metsa Board (Hold, TP: EUR7.70) - Evidence of improving markets

Q4 volumes were down almost 30% YOY, and EBIT was close to breakeven – largely in line with our muted expectations. However, based on good January activity, Metsa Board guided for better volumes for containerboard and carton board, and consequently an EBIT improvement in Q1 versus Q4. We are encouraged by the new outlook statements, but have made few changes to our earnings recovery scenario for 2024–2025. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR7.7 target price. Constructive Q1 guidance. The soft Q4 earn...

Coverage update

Given team and strategy changes, Oscar Haffen Lamm is now assuming coverage of Medincell, Camurus, Valneva, Aelis Pharma, Abivax, Calliditas, Egetis Therapeutics, Basilea, Geneuro, Achilles, Valerio, Innate Pharma, Morphosys, Inventiva Pharma, Vicore, DBV Technologies, and Genfit.Maria Vara is now