reports
- Shahmir Malik
Amreli Steel: 3QFY23 Review - Higher-than-expected GMs lead to earning...
ASTL has posted NPAT of PKR476mn (EPS: PKR1.60) in 3QFY23 versus a loss of PKR389mn (LPS: PKR1.31) in the last quarter. The result came in higher than our expected EPS of PKR0.71, where major deviation stemmed from higher-than-expected GMs and lower finance cost. KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM 3QFY23 RESULT INCLUDE: * Revenue clocked in at PKR11.7bn, down 12% QoQ and 27% YoY. Decline in revenue is mainly led by sluggish demand amid lower construction activity and PSDP allocation. We expected net sales ...
- IMS Research Team
Amreli Steel: 2QFY23 Review: Inventory losses and higher finance cost ...
ASTL has posted net loss of PKR389mn (LPS: PKR1.31) in 2QFY23 from EPS of PKR2.03 SPLY. The loss can be attributed to massive rise in COGS due to stock pile up and elevated finance cost. This result wiped out the profits from last quarter and takes 1HFY23 into NLAT of PKR185mn (LPS: PKR0.62) from EPS of PKR7.80 in 1HFY22. KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM 2QFY23 RESULT INCLUDE: * Revenue clocked in at PKR13.2bn down 11% YoY, but up 44% QoQ in 2QFY23. The sequential increase in revenue is led by improvement...
ASTL_1QFY23 Analyst Briefing Takeaways, (AKD Off the Analyst's Desk No...
Amreli Steels Limited (ASTL) held its analyst briefing earlier today, wherein the following was discussed: To recall, the company posted PAT of PkR1.3bn (EPS: PkR4.46) for FY22, lower by 3%YoY compared to the same period last year. ASTL’s Net sales for the year were PkR58.1bn, higher by 48%YoY. Despite declining volumes, the risen revenue was majorly due to higher retention prices. However, gross margins for the quarter remained under pressure due to sky rocketing scrap prices, peaking a...
- Ali Aziz Soorty
Amreli Steel: 1QFY23 Review: Earnings beat on GMs and taxation
ASTL has posted NPAT of PKR204mn (EPS: PKR0.69) in 1QFY23, down 71% YoY, while halving QoQ. The 1Q result has come in higher than our projected EPS of PKR0.33, where the variance emanated from higher-than-expected gross margins and low effective tax rate. KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM 1QFY23 RESULT INCLUDE: * Revenue has clocked in at PKR9.8bn (down 17% YoY), significantly lower than our expected revenue of PKR12bn. The decline in revenues is majorly attributed to lower-than-expected volumetric sales. ...
- Ali Aziz Soorty
Pakistan Steel: Lower demand and inventory losses to dent profitabilit...
* IMS Steel Universe is expected to post cumulative NPAT of c.PKR1.6bn in 1QFY23, down 55% QoQ (-82% YoY), amid lower margins, inventory & exchange losses, and elevated finance cost. * We expect gross margins of the IMS Steel Universe to remain flat QoQ, but down 3.8ppt YoY due to (i) lower offtake due to floods and elevated construction costs, (ii) elevated power and fuel cost, and (iii) inventory losses from flat steel due to decline in HRC-CRC spreads in case of ISL. * IMS Steel...
- Ali Aziz Soorty
Amreli Steel: 4QFY22 review – Lower volumes and margins dragged to los...
ASTL posted a loss of PKR509mn (LPS: PKR1.71) for 4QFY22, down from a NPAT of PKR531mn (EPS: PKR1.79) last quarter. This has taken FY22 NPAT to PKR1.3bn (EPS: PKR4.61), c.3% down from SPLY. The announcement is against our positive earnings expectation of PKR1.23/sh, with major deviation stemming from a variance in volumetric sales, PKR devaluation affected scrap costs, and blistering electricity cost related Fuel Cost Adjustments (FCA). Recent adverse monsoon spells have put ASTL to reduce pr...
- Ali Aziz Soorty
Pakistan Steel: 4Q preview – Profits to decelerate amid supertax, lowe...
IMS Steel Universe is expected to post cumulative NPAT of c.PKR1.6bn in 4QFY22, down 34% QoQ, as slower volumes amid elevated construction cost and one-off tax implications will drag profits. We expect gross margins of long steel companies will hold up due to i) sequential increase in rebar prices, and ii) mild softening in international scrap prices. Similarly, flat steel margins are likely to improve sequentially, due to relaying of costs and high inventory levels. Despite the series of pri...
MUGHAL & ASTL_Projections incorporating macro-developments, (AKD Daily...
AKD Daily MUGHAL & ASTL: Projections incorporating macro-developments · We revisit our investment case for MUGHAL and ASTL where we revised our target prices to PkR94/sh and PkR35/sh from PKR140/sh and PkR57/sh for MUGHAL and ASTL, respectively. Incorporating RF of 15.5% and PkR/US$ of 198/210 in FY23/24F. · We expect the earnings outlook for MUGHAL and ASTL to remain dreary in FY23 with the companies expected to see a volumetric decline of 10-12%YoY to 280-340K tons in rebar/girder dispatches f...
- Ali Aziz Soorty
Amreli Steel: 3QFY22 review – depleted margins hurt profitability
ASTL has posted NPAT of PKR531mn (EPS: PKR1.79) for 3QFY22, which is up 6% yoy but down c.12% qoq. This has taken 9MFY22 NPAT to PKR1.8bn (EPS: PKR6.18), almost double the NPAT of PKR9.29mn (EPS: PKR3.12) in SPLY. The 3Q result has come in lower than our projected EPS of PKR2.09, where the variance emanated from lower-than-expected gross margins. KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM 3QFY22 RESULT INCLUDE: * Revenue has clocked in at c.PKR15.9bn (up c.63% yoy), beating our expected revenue of PKR14.3bn, where ...
- Team AKD Research
MLCF & ASTL_ Result Previews,
AKD Daily MLCF & ASTL: Result Previews MLCF — 3QFY22 EPS to stand at PkR1.02: Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF) will be holding its board meeting today to announce 9MFY22 result where we expect unconsolidated EPS of PkR3.2 for 9MFY22, down 36%YoY. Unconsolidated EPS for 3QFY22 is expected to stand at PkR1.02, down 75/39% YoY/QoQ. The decline in profitability is a result of increasing energy prices where we witnessed coal prices touching an all time of high of USD460/ton during Mar’22....
- IMS Research Team
Pakistan: Long Steel – Stable earnings growth beyond FY22f
* We reiterate our Buy rating on ASTL and MUGHAL with new June 2023 TPs of PKR44/sh and PKR131/sh, respectively. Broadly, our estimate revisions are driven by expectation of slower demand, along with higher prices of global scrap and domestic rebar. * MUGHAL is our top pick among the listed long steel producers, where its diversification in non-ferrous segment sets it apart. The company will enhance this attribute by expanding its Copper processing capacity and will also add a new capac...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Amreli Steel: 2QFY22 review – Earnings miss on lower-than-expected gro...
ASTL has posted a NPAT of PKR602mn (EPS: PKR2.03) for 2QFY22, nearly doubling yoy but down c.15% qoq. This has taken 1HFY22 NPAT to PKR1.3bn (EPS: PKR4.39), more than tripling from a NPAT of PKR0.4bn (EPS: PKR1.42) in SPLY. The 2Q result has come in much lower than our projected EPS of PKR3.41, where the variance emanated from lower-than-expected gross margins. KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM 2QFY22 RESULTS: * Revenue has clocked in at c.PKR14.8bn (up c.55% yoy), in line with our expectations. Growth is ...
- Team AKD Research
ASTL_1QFY22 Result Review (above expectation), (AKD, Off the Analyst's...
AKD, Off the Analyst's Desk ASTL: 1QFY22 Result Review - (above expectation) Amreli Steels Limited (ASTL) announced result for 1QFY22 where company posted impressive NPAT of PkR702mn (EPS: PkR2.36) vs NPAT of PkR111mn (EPS: PkR0.37), increasing by 534%YoY and 58.4%QoQ. The topline registered a growth of 50%YoY to PkR11.8bn mainly due to increase in gross margin to 14.3% against 10.8% witnessed in 4QFY21 owing to increase of 15.4%QoQ in local rebar prices and a decline of 3%QoQ in avg. scrap...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Amreli Steel: 1QFY22 review – earnings beat due to higher-than-expecte...
ASTL has posted an NPAT of PKR702mn (EPS: PKR2.36) for 1QFY22, up c.60% qoq and c.6x yoy, significantly beating our EPS estimate of PKR1.36. The variance emanated from higher-than-expected gross margins (potentially due to scrap procurement at lower rates in the previous quarter) and lower finance costs. KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM 1QFY22 RESULT INCLUDE: * Revenue has clocked in at c.PKR12bn; which is flat qoq due to lower sales volume amid religious holidays and monsoon season, but this was offset b...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Pakistan Steel: 1QFY22 preview – Expect lower profits as margins will ...
* We expect our Steel Universe to post cumulative 1QFY22 NPAT of PKR3.2bn, down c.10% qoq amid a decline in gross margins despite multiple price hikes and an overall decline in volumes. * In our view, gross margins of all companies in our coverage should see a qoq decline due to: (i) normalisation of inventory gains, (ii) higher raw material costs and, (iii) decline in volumes amid Eid holidays and prolonged Monsoon season. * Despite a series of price hikes in 1Q in both long and f...
- Team AKD Research
Pakistan Steel_Scrap price lose steam , (AKD Daily, Aug 24, 2021)
AKD Daily Pakistan Steel: Scrap price lose steam International scrap prices have decreased by 11% since Jul’21 to currently stand at US$456/ton compared to last 3 months avg. of US$493/ton as global demand slows down with economic recovery stalling on the back of global floods and increasing Delta variant cases in major scrap trading regions. Closure of steel manufacturing facilities, end product supply chain disruptions and policy shift in China with Chinese manufacturers cutting down pr...
- Team AKD Research
ASTL_Riding the construction boom, (AKD Daily, Aug 17, 2021)
AKD Daily ASTL: Riding the construction boom ASTL held its analyst briefing on Friday to apprise investors about company’s financial performance and future outlook. To recall, company posted PAT of PkR1.37bn (EPS: PkR4.61) in FY21 vs. net loss of PkR1.24bn in the same period last year. The phenomenal growth in FY21 came on the back of increased revenue, up 48%YoY to PkR39.2bn mainly attributable to i) impressive volumetric growth of 33%YoY where rebar sales clocked in at 375.7K tons (+33%Y...
- Team AKD Research
ASTL & INDU_4QFY21 Result Previews, (AKD Daily, Aug 11, 2021)
AKD Daily ASTL & INDU_4QFY21 Result Previews, ASTL – Earnings to rebound in FY21 to PkR4.53/sh: ASTL is slated to announce its 4QFY21 result (13th Aug'21), where we expect the company to record a nominal profit of PkR420mn (EPS: PkR1.41) vs net loss of PkR438mn (LPS: PkR1.48) in 4QFY20. This will take FY21 NPAT to PkR1.35bn (EPS: PkR4.53) on the back of sturdy offtakes +32%YoY against a net loss of PkR1.13bn (LPS: PkR3.79) in FY20. The expected earnings for the quarter primarily comes on the b...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Amreli Steel: 4QFY21 analyst briefing takeaways
ASTL posted a NPAT of PKR443mn (EPS: PKR1.49) in 4QFY21, a sharp jump from a NLAT of PKR438mn SPLY (LPS: PKR1.48), while down 12% qoq. This took cumulative FY21 NPAT to PKR1.4bn (EPS: PKR4.61). ASTL did not announce any dividends during the year. KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF 4QFY21 RESULTS * Rebar sales clocked in at c.104,500 tons, up c.15% qoq from c.89,000 tons in 3Q. Despite fewer working days due to Eid holidays, strong rebar demand enabled ASTL to sell a record c.43,000 tons in June. Realized reb...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Amreli Steel: 4QFY21 review – Good end to the year; broadly in-line
ASTL has posted a NPAT of PKR443mn (EPS: PKR1.49) for 4QFY21, compared with a NLAT of PKR438mn (LPS: PKR1.48) in SPLY, while down 12% qoq. This has taken aggregate FY21 NPAT to PKR1.4bn (EPS: PKR4.61). The 4Q result came broadly in line with our projected EPS of PKR1.57, where the variance emanated from lower-than-expected gross margins (potentially due to scrap bought at higher prices in the previous quarter) and a lower- than-expected tax rate, which cushioned the bottom line. KEY TAKEAWAYS...
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