reports
- Rahul Hans
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd: 1QCY23 Review - Depressed margins and ...
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd (FFBL) has posted unconsolidated NLAT of PKR5.4bn (LPS: PKR4.20) for 1QCY23, compared to NPAT of PKR614mn (EPS: PKR0.48) in 4QCY22. The loss came in higher than our expected loss of PKR2.45/sh. The deviation stemmed from lower GMs and higher-than-expected exchange losses. On a consolidated basis, the net loss is PKR4.6bn (LPS: PKR3.76) in 1QCY23 as compared to profits of PKR3.2bn (EPS: PKR2.47) in 1CY22. KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF 1QCY23 RESULT (UNCONSOLIDATED): * Net r...
- Rahul Hans
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd: 4QCY22 Review - Higher expenses and ta...
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd (FFBL) has posted unconsolidated NPAT of PKR0.6bn (EPS: PKR0.48) for 4QCY22, lower than our expected NPAT of PKR1.6bn (EPS: PKR1.21). The deviation stemmed from impairment booked on FFL investment and higher tax rate. This takes consolidated CY22 NPAT to PKR2.3bn (EPS: 1.80), down 64% YoY. On a consolidated basis, FFBL has posted net profits of PKR4.2bn (EPS: PKR3.25) in 4QCY22 as compared to profits of PKR3.3bn (EPS: PKR2.54) in 4CY21. This takes CY22 NPAT to P...
- Rahul Hans
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd: 3QCY22 Result Review - Hefty exchange ...
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd (FFBL) has posted an unconsolidated loss of PKR1.7bn (LPS: PKR1.31) for 3QCY22, compared to NPAT of PKR2.3bn (EPS: PKR1.76) in 3QCY21. The result is against our earnings expectation of PKR1.77/share, owing to higher-than-expected exchange losses to the tune of PKR4.2bn. This takes 9MCY22 EPS to stand at PKR1.33. We highlight that the company has posted a loss for the first time since 2QCY20. On a consolidated basis, FFBL has posted a loss of PKR455mn (LPS: PKR0....
- Rahul Hans
Pakistan Fertilizers - 3QCY22 Result Previews
PROFITS TO SURGE SEQUENTIALLY AMID NORMALIZED TAX RATE * Despite the sequential decline in fertilizer volumes owing to floods and short-lived plant breakdowns of EFERT and FFC, IMS Fertilizer Universe earnings are estimated to increase by a sharp 3.4x QoQ to PKR17.8bn due to lower tax rate, elevated fertilizer prices and strong interest income. * Industry Urea/DAP offtake is estimated to clock in at 1.52/0.14mn tons in 3QCY22, down 13%/77% YoY, owing to floods, and high DAP prices in ca...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd: Strong core profits can spark a comeba...
* We reiterate our Buy stance on FFBL with a SoTP based TP of PKR37/sh (fertilizer ops: PKR20/sh). Fertilizer profits are expected to do well amidst strong core margins and lower finance cost due to reduced borrowings. * Strong core performance should offset impairment on subsidiaries, if any. A possible reduction in FFL losses owing to increased prices and lower finance costs should help FFBL on a consolidated level. However, FML is expected to expand losses. * Despite resilient e...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd: Analyst Briefing Takeaways
FFBL held its Analyst Briefing Session today to discuss the recent performance and the future outlook. In 2QCY22, IMS Fertilizer Universe posted a c.55% decline in NPAT, whereas the decline in FFBL’s earnings (c.30% YoY) was cushioned due to the large dividend from PMP. On a consolidated basis, improvement in financial performances of FFL (focus on changing sales mix from tea-whiteners) and reduction in losses in FML, contributed to the c.60% YoY rise in NPAT. In 2HCY22, we expect FFBL to pos...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd: 2QCY22 Review: Exchange loss and stupe...
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd (FFBL) has posted unconsolidated NPAT of PKR1.8bn (EPS: PKR1.38) for 2QCY22, down c.30% YoY, lower than our expected EPS of PKR2.11. This takes 1HCY22 EPS to PKR2.64. The deviation stemmed from higher-than-expected other expenses and taxation. On a consolidated basis, FFBL has posted net profits of PKR0.9bn (EPS: PKR0.67) in 2QCY22, up c.60% YoY, taking 1HCY22 consolidated EPS to PKR3.14, up from an EPS of PKR1.28 in SPLY. KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF 2QCY22 RESULT: * Net...
- Team AKD Research
Stock Smart Weekly (Apr 28, 2022)
StockSmart Weekly Review Following the last week’s 1,049pts sell off, the market recovered 520pts on the first trading session this week on the back positive development with IMF. According to their spoke person, the IMF delegation is expected to visit Pakistan in May. In addition to this, the length of the program is also expected to increase till Jun’23 with additional US$2bn financing arrangement, taking the total program size to US$8...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
- Rahul Hans
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd: 1QCY22 Review: Lower-than-expected GMs...
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd (FFBL) has posted unconsolidated NPAT of PKR1.6bn (EPS: PKR1.26) for 1QCY22, much lower than our expected NPAT of PKR2.6bn (EPS: PKR1.98). The deviation stemmed from lower-than-expected gross margins and higher other expenses. On a consolidated basis, FFBL has posted net profits of PKR3.2bn (EPS: PKR2.47) in 1QCY22 as compared with profits of PKR1.1bn (EPS: PKR0.87) in 1CY21. KEY HIGHLIGHTS OF 1QCY22 RESULT: * Net revenues have nearly doubled yoy to PKR24.8bn a...
- Team AKD Research
KSE-100_Approaching near support zone
AKD Daily Technicals KSE-100: Approaching near support zone, The index opened on a positive note and remained volatile throughout last trading session. The Index posted an intraday high of 253pts, a low of 442pts and concluded with a loss of 390pts to settle at 45,943pts level. The volumes witnessed during the last trading session were comparatively lower than the previous trading session. The MACD is bullish since it is trading above its signal line. The MACD crossed its moving average, the...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
- Rahul Hans
Pakistan Fertilizers: Sector will continue to post decent earnings and...
* IMS Fertilizer Universe is expected to post cumulative net profits of PKR20.1bn in 1QCY22 up c.20% yoy. The rise in profitability is mainly attributed to (i) elevated Urea and DAP prices, and (ii) higher industry offtake. * Industry Urea/DAP offtake are estimated to clock in at c.1.50/0.20mn tons in 1QCY22, representing an increase of 7%/3% on a yoy basis. Higher Urea sales are mainly attributable to better farmer economics and preemptive buying before recent price hike by PKR180/bag ...
- Abdul Ghani Mianoor
Pakistan Fertilizer: Increasing Urea prices will expand dividend yield...
* Urea prices have increased: As per channel checks, FFC and FFBL have increased Urea prices by PKR80/bag, taking them to c.PKR1,810/bag, effective 13 March 2022. We think that EFERT and FATIMA are likely to follow suit. The increase in price is majorly aimed at passing on inflationary pressures such as the increase in packaging and transportation costs. * Multiple factors have created room for more hikes: According to NFDC data, Urea Inventory levels in January 2022 had declined to c.2...
- Rahul Hans
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd: 4QCY21 review – Multiple one-offs and ...
Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd (FFBL) has posted unconsolidated NPAT of PKR241mn (EPS: PKR0.19) for 4QCY21, much lower than our expected NPAT of PKR4.46bn (EPS: PKR3.46). The key deviation was an allowance for expected credit losses of PKR4.25bn on loan payments and markups accrued on FML and FFL. FFBL also didn’t announce any dividend vs. our expectation of PKR2.1/sh. On a consolidated basis, FFBL has posted net profits of PKR3.28bn (EPS: PKR2.54) in 4QCY21, which takes CY21 net profits to P...
- Rahul Hans
Pakistan Fertilizer: Dec 2021 - Sales volume update
According to the monthly data of fertilizer offtake by NFDC, Urea offtake in December 2021 increased by 4% mom, but declined by 32% yoy to c.599,000 tons. The yoy decline was majorly due to high base effect as sales last year were unusually high in anticipation of increase in prices. In CY21, Urea offtake has surged to a 12 years’ high of 6.34mn tons, up 5% yoy. The market share of FFC/FFBL shrunk by 3/1ppt to 39%/8% in CY21; whereas, EFERT’s share increased by 2ppt to 36%. Urea ex-factory pr...
- Rahul Hans
Pakistan Fertilizer: 4QCY21 result preview
DIVERGENT TRENDS IN DAP AND UREA BUT OVERALL PROFITS TO RISE * IMS Fertilizer Universe is expected to post cumulative net profits of PKR21.4bn in 4QCY21 up 4% yoy. The impact of higher DAP margins and Urea prices will be countered by lower profits of EFERT and FATIMA due to the discontinuation of concessionary gas for them. * Industry Urea/DAP offtake are estimated to clock in at c.1.63/0.72mn tons in 4QCY21, representing a decline of 11%/10% yoy in Urea/DAP offtake. Lower Urea sales ar...
- Rahul Hans
November 2021: Urea inventory plunged to 32mth low
According to the monthly data of fertilizer offtake by NFDC, Urea offtake in November 2021 increased by 8% yoy and 12% mom to c.574,000 tons. The yoy increase was majorly due to anticipation of an increase in Urea prices and uptake in demand from farmers amid better crop yields and elevated commodity prices. On a cumulative basis, in 11MCY21, Urea offtake surged by 11% yoy to 5.74mn tons. The market share of FFC/FFBL shrunk by 3/2ppt to 39%/8% in 11MCY21; whereas, that of EFERT/FATIMA increas...
- Team AKD Research
Pakistan Fertilizer_Urea drives the volumes in Nov'21, (AKD Daily, Dec...
AKD Daily Pakistan Fertilizer: Urea drives the volumes in Nov’21 As per the numbers released by NFDC, total urea offtake for the industry clocked in at 574k MT (+8%YoY/+12%MoM). The cumulative 11MCY21 numbers depict a growth of 11%YoY to stand at 5.7mn MT in contrast to 5.15mn MT in same period last year. DAP offtake decreased 36%MoM/38%YoY to 219k MT taking 11MCY21 DAP offtake to 1.64mn MT compared to 1.96mn MT in same period last year, down by 16%YoY. As per NFDC, the average prices ...
- Rahul Hans
Pakistan Fertilizers: October 2021 sales volume update
HIGHER UREA OFFTAKE HAS MAINTAINED LOWER INVENTORY LEVELS According to monthly data of fertilizer offtake released by NFDC, Urea offtake in October 2021 increased by 24% yoy and 5% mom to c.514,000 tons. The yoy increase is majorly due to higher demand from farmers amid better crops yield and elevated commodity prices. On a cumulative basis, in 10MCY21, Urea offtake increased by 12% yoy to 5.17mn tons. The market share of FFC/FFBL shrunk by 4/1ppt to 39%/8% in 10MCY21; whereas, that of EFERT/...
- Team AKD Research
Pakistan Strategy_Oct'21 market review and outlook, (AKD Daily, Nov 01...
AKD Daily Pakistan Strategy_Oct’21 market review and outlook KSE-100 index returned 2.9%MoM during the month of Oct’21 while the US$ adjusted return during the month clocked in at 2.3% as PkR depreciated by 0.6%MoM against the Greenback. Resolution of civil-military relationship, announcement of Saudi support package and increasing likelihood of an agreement between IMF and authorities to revive the plan were the key triggers. Flow wise, Foreigners continue to exit Pakistan’s traditiona...
- Team AKD Research
Pakistan Fertilizer FFBL_ A bumper year, (AKD Daily, Nov 03, 2021)
AKD Daily Pakistan Fertilizer FFBL_ A bumper year We revisit our investment case on Fauji Fertilizer bin Qasim Limited (FFBL) where we expect the company to witness a bumper year as the DAP price momentum is likely to continue into 1QCY22. Based on the aforementioned bull cycle, we incorporate average DAP primary margins for FFBL at US$136/MT for CY21, which are expected to normalize to US$100/77 per MT in CY22/23F as supply disruptions smoothen out. With Rabi season kickoff, we expect the...
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