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Q12024  Seplat Unaudited Financial Result | Elevated Tax Expense Drive...

Elevated Tax Expense Drives Net LossIn Q1:2024, Seplat Energy’s revenue grew by a remarkable 76.73% year-on-year (YoY) to reach NGN268.62bn. This exceptional performance was fueled by substantial growth in both crude oil (up 64.72% YoY) and gas (up 184.84 % YoY) revenue streams. Average production slowed down by 4.8% YoY to 49,258 barrels of oil and equivalent per day (boepd) compared to 51,720 boepd. However, higher oil (USD86.17pb in Q1:2024 vs USD82.32pb in Q1:2023) and gas (USD3.11/Mscf in Q...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 03/05/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.75 per share: Raising new equity to fund a high impact activity programme – ADX has raised A$13.5 mm of new equity priced at A$0.105 per share. One free-attaching option will be issued for evert two placement shares with an exercise price of A$0.15 per share and an expiry date of 08/05/2026. The proceeds from the raise will fund (1) the production testing of the 450 m gas column encountered at ...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Seplat Energy: 1Q24 results - operations strong, financials skewed

Seplat delivered an encouraging operating performance in 1Q24 including production of 49.3kboed, towards the upper end of guidance (44-52kboed). All current guidance was maintained but good progress on the ANOH export infrastructure and an earlier than expected resumption of exports through Zone 6 of the Trans Niger Pipeline improve confidence that guidance will be at least met. Financial performance for the quarter was skewed by a substantial underlift, FX effects, and a high deferred tax charg...

Egor Fedorov ... (+2)
  • Egor Fedorov
  • James Wilson

EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly

EM credit markets continue to hold up well amid the challenging macro backdrop, with some more optimism building around the higher-yielding portion of the market. With valuations fairly tight on the whole, we expect more positive technical tailwinds, such as a return of inflows to the asset class, will be needed for spreads to tighten further. Key topics: • EM Credit: Weekly review. • Egypt surges amid foreign investment from UAE. • CEEMEA corporates: Brief review of key events: ENGPRO, KZO...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Seplat Energy - FY23 results – strong performance, more to come

Seplat delivered a strong operating and financial performance in 2023 with production up 8% to 47.8kboed and EPS increased by 27% to US$0.14, despite a near 20% fall in the oil price. Reserves increased by 9% to 478mmboe. Guidance for start-up at ANOH was reconfirmed and Seplat remains highly confident that the transformational MPNU acquisition will complete. Cash flow was strong and net debt was reduced to US$306m (YE22 US$366m). The current quarterly dividend of USc3 was supplemented with a sp...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Seplat Energy - Research Update - Valuation Catalysts

We believe Seplat has multiple catalysts for value uplift which remain poorly understood despite the share price outperformance this year. Based on new modelling, we provide detailed insights into these catalysts. Most certain are improved operational reliability and the start-up of the ANOH gas project. Completion of the MPNU acquisition and conversion to the new PIA terms could be transformative while enhanced corporate governance and the improved outlook for Nigeria add supportive context. Se...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Auctus on Friday - 03/11/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.80 per share: On Track to start drilling in early November - 3Q23 production of 324 boe/d and cash of A$5.7 mm at the end of September were near our expectations. This includes 101 bbl/d gross production for Anshof that was shut-in on 19 September after reaching the regulatory limit for test production. Until that date the Anshof-3 well produced at a stable rate of 114 bbl/d, which is above the...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Seplat Energy - 9M23 Results - Good performance, ANOH update

Seplat delivered a strong operating performance in 9M23, despite third-party infrastructure issues in 3Q23 with production up 11% YoY to 48.2kboed. Cash generated from operations was flat YoY while net debt was cut to US$347.6m and is expected to fall further by YE23. Guidance for FY23 was narrowed to 46-50kboed for production and US$160m-US$180m for capex. The quarterly dividend was maintained at the current run rate of USc3.0 with Seplat hinting at another potential special dividend. Seplat i...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Seplat Energy - 1H23 results – solid operating performance

Seplat delivered a solid operating performance in 1H23 with production up 2% to 50.8kboed and FY23 production guidance of 45-55kboed was reiterated. Net profit for the period was US$82.6m, down 1% YoY, on lower oil prices and net of overlift, FX loss on Naira devaluation, and higher G&A but benefitting from a low tax rate, with EPS halved to US$0.07. The dividend was maintained at the current USc3 quarterly run rate, up 20% YoY. Net cash generated from operations was US$209.4m (1H22 US$284.3m) w...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Seplat Energy - Q1 Update

Seplat reported a 1.6% YoY increase in operating profit to $103.7m for 1Q23 as higher working interest production, up 8.6% YoY to 51.7kboed, more than offset lower oil prices. Diluted EPS tripled to US$0.10 benefitting from a low tax charge which more than offset higher finance charges. Production guidance was maintained at 45-55kboed. Adjusted EBITDA slipped 5.1% to US$140.2m with cash generated from operations down 21.7% to $139.9m, impacted by a negative working capital swing, but net debt fe...

Stephane Foucaud
  • Stephane Foucaud

Auctus on Friday - 28/04/2023

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Target price of A$0.100 per share: 1Q23 update – 1Q23 production in Austria was 299 boe/d. The company held A$3.41 mm in cash at the end of March. Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C: On track for near term acquisition – The FY22 financials were in line with our expectations. The company held C$3.7 mm in cash at YE22. Criterium has also filed the notice of intention to file a short form prospectus. This could be an indica...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Seplat Energy - FY Results Update

Seplat reported FY22 net income of $104.7m with adjusted EBITDA up 12.1% YoY to $416.9m and debt cut to $365.9m, despite payment of $140m in transaction deposits. That enabled the Board to announce a US$0.05c special dividend taking the total for the year to $0.15 representing a yield of 11%. Seplat experienced a difficult year operationally which held back the results, nevertheless the strong cash performance saw debt cut and enabled the payment of a $0.05 special dividend. Export resilience ha...

Oliver Juggins
  • Oliver Juggins

Seplat Energy - Q3 Results Update

In Q3 Seplat suffered from an unusually elevated level of evacuation problems, but these issues have all been addressed in time for Q4, and it is guiding strong exit production (55kboepd), at the very top end of its prior FY guidance range. As such, we expect this to be a bump in the road from which the company has already recovered, but which will leave a mark on the FY results – albeit one that is more than offset by improved oil prices, with 9M22 revenue up 34.4% at an average price of $108....

Janet Ogabi
  • Janet Ogabi

Seplat: Crude oil theft erodes earnings

Seplat Energy reported a pre-tax loss in Q3 of US$24mn – the first quarterly loss since the oil price crash at the start of Covid in 2020 and, before that, the militant attacks in 2016/17. This time around, the poor result can be attributed to the oil thefts that have forced oil operators to declare force majeure. The Nigerian government has taken numerous steps to put a stop to the thefts, which drove the country's oil production to under 1mn barrels per day (mbpd) in August – lower than the...

Janet Ogabi
  • Janet Ogabi

Seplat caught in the middle of shaky IOC exits

The past two weeks have been a rollercoaster for Seplat that has begun to weigh on the company's share price, which has dropped 4% in the London listing and 9% in Nigeria (the bulk of which occurred yesterday). On August 8, the President (who is also the Minister of Petroleum) approved Seplat's acquisition of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU), which is an oil major (or IOC – International Oil Companies). But this was repealed by the regulator soon after, and the President also withdrew...

Seplat Energy: 1 director

A director at Seplat Energy sold 16,139 shares at 1,570.000NGN and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

Oliver Juggins
  • Oliver Juggins

Seplat Energy - H122 Results - August 2022

Seplat has released an impressive set of half year results, buoyed by strong oil prices and resilient gas prices, despite short-term downwards pressure from the Domestic Supply Obligation under the Nigerian PIA. Revenue was up 71%, with oil sold at an average price of $107/bbl and gas $2.76 Mscf – at the same time operating costs fell 17% to $8.1/boe, leading to a $209.9m PBT, $418.6m net debt, and $350m cash at hand. Leverage is low, at 0.78x net debt to LTM EBITDA, and cash flow from operatio...

Oliver Juggins
  • Oliver Juggins

Seplat Energy - 1Q22 Results - April 2022

Seplat has had an excellent start to the year, with strong revenue (+58.6% YoY), EBITDA (+81.6% YoY), operating cash flow (up 40x), and balance sheet (net debt flat YoY at $442.6m). Guidance was re-iterated, the dividend held, and we still see completion of the MPNU acquisition as the key catalyst at present, followed by confirmation of first flow through the Amukpe-Escravos project. We're due to hear more on both in H2.

Oliver Juggins
  • Oliver Juggins

Seplat Energy - FY Results Quick Take - Consensus Updated

Analysts have released updated estimates following the full year results taking into consideration the acquisition involving ExxonMobil shallow water assets. Seplat released a strong set of FY results, with oil prices providing a significant tailwind – indeed, enough to more than offset the significant downtime experienced at the Forcados Oil Terminal in the year. The board recommended a 2.5c dividend, in line with the other three quarterly dividends last year. The market outlook is positive, w...

Oliver Juggins
  • Oliver Juggins

Seplat Energy - FY Results Quick Take

Yesterday Seplat released a strong set of FY results, with oil prices providing a significant tailwind – indeed, enough to more than offset the significant downtime experienced at the Forcados Oil Terminal in the year. The board recommended a 2.5c dividend, in line with the other three quarterly dividends last year. The market outlook is positive, with the oil price environment remaining buoyant and no sign of OPEC+ imposing further production limits on Nigeria – in fact they were increased dur...

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