reports
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
In the past week, we published an update on Equinor; we expect lowered renewables targets and capex guidance at the upcoming Capital Markets Update to be overshadowed by limited will or capacity for attractive shareholder distributions beyond 2025. We see significant downside risk for the stock to trade in line with peers on 2026e total shareholder yields. In other news, Panoro Energy released its Q3 results; we consider the report fairly neutral. Finally, production at Johan Sverdrup is back to...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 22/11/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C: Portion of deeper target at Welchau flows water on test – Two intervals (total of ~16 m) in the Steinalm formation. were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces. Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate highlights the high permeability of the natural fractures, the absence of hydrocarbons is disappoi...
ENW ENWELL ENERGY
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
PANR PANTHEON RESOURCES
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
ENQ ENQUEST PLC
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
CRCL CORCEL
ATOM ATOME ENERGY PLC
ITH ITHACA ENERGY PLC
NOG NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC
SEAPT NO SEACREST PETROLEO BERMUDA - SEAPT NO
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
PLSR PULSAR HELIUM INC.
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Martin Mauseth
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stephane Foucaud
Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Production reaching 13 mbbl/d. Two high ...
• There were no surprises in the 3Q24 accounts. • Since last week, WI production has increased from 12.5 mbbl/d to 13 mbbl/d. • Gross production in Gabon continues to be ~40 mbbl/d. Three further workovers for ESP installation are planned during 4Q24. The nameplate capacity of the FPSO could be increased by 10% to 44 mbbl/d. • Gross production in EG stands at 29 mbbl/d. The second infill well is starting production and could take overall gross production in EG to 35 mbbl/d. This new well could ...
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Martin Mauseth
- Oliver Dunvold
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Panoro Energy (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Exiting the year on a high
We forecast USD17m in Q3 EBITDA (no reliable consensus). While 2024 has been hampered by operational issues, we still see 2024 exit production of ~13kboed, with Dussafu already producing at a plateau of 40kboed (gross) in mid-November. Thus, with most hiccups hopefully over, we believe Panoro is well positioned for significant FCF expansion in 2025–2026e, supported by production growth and a decline in capex. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK38 (39), factoring in increase...
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Bruno Cavalier
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
MRK MERCK KGAA
EOAN E.ON SE
ALO ALSTOM SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
ANA ACCIONA SA
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
SIE SIEMENS AG
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
REY REPLY S.P.A.
LAND LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC
BNTX BIONTECH SE
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
SHEL SHELL PLC
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Amira Manai
- Jerôme Bodin
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
APAML APERAM SA
EVT EVOTEC SE
GBF BILFINGER SE
SCR SCOR SE
BLC BASTIDE LE CONFORT MEDICAL SA
PSM PROSIEBENSAT.1 MEDIA SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
ENI ENI S.P.A.
MBB MBB INDUSTRIES SE
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
REP REPSOL SA
ERG ERG S.P.A.
CARM CARMILA SAS
LTA ALTAMIR ACT PORTEUR
RENE REDES ENERGETICAS NACIONAIS SA
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
DMP DERMAPHARM HOLDING SE
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
S92 SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AG
VK VALLOUREC SA
NA9 NAGARRO
AERO MONTANA AEROSPACE AG
MRX MISTER SPEX SE
NVM NOVEM GROUP SA
SHEL SHELL PLC
CO CASINO GUICHARD-PERRACHON
- Ahmed Ben Salem
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/15/2024
Swiss-based Accelleron was formed from the spin-off of ABB’s highly profitable turbocharger division in 2022. We view the share as a promising investment on 1/ market leadership in an attractive niche, 2/ about ~40% ROCE, 3/ conversion of ~80% of EBITDA into cash, leading to fast deleveraging, and a solid base for shareholder remuneration (75% pay out), and 4/ strong long-term visibility linked to a ~75% service share, the bulk of which is recurring. Despite an already strong stock pe...
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
MRK MERCK KGAA
EOAN E.ON SE
ALO ALSTOM SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
ANA ACCIONA SA
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
SIE SIEMENS AG
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
REY REPLY S.P.A.
LAND LAND SECURITIES GROUP PLC
BNTX BIONTECH SE
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
SHEL SHELL PLC
AGN AEGON N.V.
- Amira Manai
- Jerôme Bodin
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
APAML APERAM SA
EVT EVOTEC SE
GBF BILFINGER SE
SCR SCOR SE
BLC BASTIDE LE CONFORT MEDICAL SA
PSM PROSIEBENSAT.1 MEDIA SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
ENI ENI S.P.A.
MBB MBB INDUSTRIES SE
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
REP REPSOL SA
ERG ERG S.P.A.
CARM CARMILA SAS
LTA ALTAMIR ACT PORTEUR
RENE REDES ENERGETICAS NACIONAIS SA
COL INMOBILIARIA COLONIAL SOCIMI SA
BP. BP P.L.C.
DMP DERMAPHARM HOLDING SE
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
S92 SMA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY AG
VK VALLOUREC SA
NA9 NAGARRO
AERO MONTANA AEROSPACE AG
MRX MISTER SPEX SE
NVM NOVEM GROUP SA
SHEL SHELL PLC
CO CASINO GUICHARD-PERRACHON
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Thijs Berkelder
ODDO : IEA report– a surplus and easing of geopolitical tensions pushi...
>Slowdown in demand confirmed for 2025 - The IEA has just published its monthly report in which it has marginally lifted its demand growth estimates by 60 kb/d to +920 kb/d for 2024 but maintains unchanged its 2025 estimate at +1 Mb/d. This level compares with +1.2 Mb/d on average over 2000-2019 and a record of +2 Mb/d in 2023. This slowdown can be explained by the economic slowdown and the deployment of renewable energies. Chinese demand has slowed sharply for th...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/11/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well. Water disposal infrastructure operational. High net cash – The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%. The well reached TD ~ one month ago. After ~1 month of production, CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 were also producing >30% water with ~1 mbbl/d oil produ...
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
GENL GENEL ENERGY
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
MATD PETRO MATAD
NTOG NOSTRA TERRA OIL & GAS COMPANY
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
AOI AFRICA OIL CORP
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
BWE BW ENERGY
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
KIST KISTOS PLC
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
- Ahmed Ben Salem
- Thijs Berkelder
ODDO : Rapport AIE –Surplus et accalmie géopolitique pèsent sur les pr...
>Le ralentissement de la demande se confirme en 2025 - L’AIE vient de publier son rapport mensuel et révise légèrement à la hausse ses estimations de croissance de la demande de 60 kb/j à +920 kb/j pour 2024 mais les maintient inchangées à +1 Mb/j pour 2025. Ce niveau se compare à +1.2 Mb/j en moyenne en 2000-2019 et un record de +2 Mb/j en 2023. Ce ralentissement s’explique par le ralentissement économique et le déploiement des énergies renouvelables. La demande ...
- Steffen Evjen
US shale: limited revisions and colour on 2025 activity levels
Our Q3 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4–5% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). Our survey also suggests capex down ~2% YOY, as the companies continue to guide for flat activity. Limited colour was provided on 2025 activity levels and associated capex, which we will know more about in the Q4 results season. For Q3, our universe marginally underspent its cash flow, albeit with net debt continuing to build QOQ a...
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): High production in 4Q24. Launching a share ...
• The 3Q24 production and cash position at the end of September had been reported previously. • Production in September and October stood at ~26.4 mbbl/d. This is very high. The company expects production to be ~26 mbbl/d over 4Q24. We only assumed 24-25 mbbl/d. • The high production combined with (1) the settlement in early October of a 0.18 mmbbl lifting sold at the end of 3Q24 and (2) above average liftings in 4Q24 suggests high cashflow and free cashflow in 4Q24. As previously reported, Vale...
- Filipe Botelho
- Josseline Jenssen
- Lorena Reich
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Åsne Holsen
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- Haakon Amundsen
- John Olaisen
- Stian Wibstad
- Stephane Foucaud
GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Success at Confluencia Norte: material r...
• The three exploration wells at Confluencia Norte in Argentina are now in production with an aggregate gross flow rate of 4 mbbl/d (Geopark WI: 50%). The wells are still cleaning-up and production is increasing towards its peak within 90 days. • This is a very good result that derisks the area where no reserves have been booked so far. We understand that the performance of the wells currently tracks GeoPark’s P10 case. • We are increasing our expected total YE24 WI production for GeoPark in Arg...
- Steffen Evjen
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