As the earning season has concluded, investors are taking stock about the auto sector’s FY24 Q2 results and updated guidance numbers. Analyst Julie Boote reviews the key developments in the industry, and how these could affect automakers’ earnings in the second half of the fiscal year.
Toyota Motor (7203 JT) is likely to report a profit decline in FY24 Q2, as high expenses are set to more than offset moderate positive contributions from vol/mix/price and the currency. However, since this OP decline is anticipated (as per consensus numbers), the key focus should be on Toyota’s FY24 guidance: we view the automaker’s profit forecasts as conservative, leaving room for an upgrade.
Given that the EV market is not a free market, led by demand and supply, but a distorted market, moved by political intervention in the form of subsidies (or lack of), making EV sales forecasts is very challenging indeed. This is a headache for analysts, but even more so for auto companies with a ten-year planning horizon. In this report, we outline the sales situation for different regions, as well as providing an outlook based on currently available information.
When the BoJ raised rates in March, it had been 17 years since it had last done so, though the world was very different then. While the July rate hike was unlikely to move the economic needle, the question now is what else might follow the subsequent financial market maelstrom. Pelham Smithers discusses the outlook for Japan’s macro environment, what new fiscal policies the new PM might introduce, how the BoJ might react and the all-important trend in corporate earnings. This then leads us to...
Mazda’s profits surged in FY24 Q1 on the back of currency gains, with the sharp rise in incentives surprising markets. Analyst Julie Boote examines Mazda’s incentives policy and whether the rising trend is likely to remain in place.
Suzuki delivered some strong FY24 Q1 results but is cautioning about deteriorating earnings for the rest of the year. While FY24 sales growth should remain in positive territory and pricing is still firm, analyst Julie Boote warns that the risk of Suzuki’s key Indian operations performing worse than expected is rising.
Rivals Nissan and Honda surprised markets with the announcement of a future collaboration on EVs and software. While it is still early days, the two companies seem keen to take advantage of scale and synergies in the highly competitive EV space. Given the industry’s rapid transition towards new mobility, analyst Julie Boote investigates whether a more comprehensive alliance or a merger could be possible and beneficial.
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