reports
- Steffen Evjen
Mixed risk for dividend cuts
Following the recent sharp oil price drop to ~USD70/bbl, we see increased investor concerns about the robustness of shareholder distributions. Historically, disappointments related to dividends and/or buybacks have triggered meaningful negative share-price reactions. For our large-cap NCS coverage, we believe oil prices would have to move below USD60/bbl for any negative surprises to unfold for Aker BP and Equinor, as both have strong balance sheets, enabling dividend flexibility. On the other h...
- Stephane Foucaud
Pharos Energy Plc (LSE: PHAR): Very strong financials. Busy drilling p...
• 1H24 production of 5,851 boe/d had been reported previously. • Pharos has re-iterated its FY24 production guidance of 5.2-6.5 mboe/d. The company expects to spend US$26 mm (net) capex in 2024 (US$27 mm previously). • The highlight of this announcement is the strong financials. While the net cash of US$17.5 mm at the end of June is in line with what had been reported previously, the 1H24 operating cashflow had been negatively impacted by an inventory build of ~US$12 mm. This implies that the ne...
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published an update on DNO, seeing significant value potential from its Norwegian portfolio. As one of the most successful NCS exploration companies in recent years, the company has discovered net resources of ~135mmboe. In other news, we upgraded Aker BP to BUY (HOLD), viewing its recent underperformance as an attractive entry point. Also, a gas market update with Equinor left us slightly more bullish with regards to the near- and long-term gas market outlook.
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, the Aker BP-operated Tyrving field commenced production ahead of the planned start-up in October. In other news, Vår Energi completed the divestment in the Norne area to DNO; adjusting for cash flow between the effective transaction date on 1 January and close on 30 August, DNO paid a net cash consideration of ~USD24m. Also, BlueNord reported August preliminary production of 27.0kboed. Adjusting for the Harald fiel
- Steffen Evjen
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 30/08/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price £0.70 per share: Key horizontal wells outperforms expectations – Arrow has now drilled 3 horizontal wells in Carrizales Norte. The flow rates of the wells are exceeding our expectations. The first CN horizontal well (CNB HZ-1) is being restricted to a current oil flow rate of 2,090 bbl/d with approximately 41% water cut. The average oil production for the first 60 days of production was 2,37...
- Steffen Evjen
Maha Energy AB: 1 director
A director at Maha Energy AB sold 1,000,000 shares at 8.120SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we updated our oil and gas price assumptions. We see a softer oil market balance than before and have lowered our oil price assumptions. For gas, we have raised our assumptions based on increased geopolitical risks. Accordingly, we have updated our company estimates. Despite outperforming Equinor and Aker BP by ~25% YTD, we have kept Vår Energi as our top sector pick.
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/08/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price £0.45 per share: Commencing drilling operations at high impact well in Morocco – Drilling operations have commenced on the Anchois East well (now named Anchois-3). The well has three objectives. An initial pilot hole will be drilled to evaluate the potential of the Anchois Footwall prospect, located in an undrilled fault block to the east of the main field with a 2U Prospective Resource estimate of 170 ...
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
OMV OMV AG
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
AOI. AFRICA OIL
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
CHAR CHARIOT OIL & GAS
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
I3E I3 ENERGY
SOUC SOUTHERN ENERGY CORP
NOG NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
IAECN ITHACA ENERGY
- Steffen Evjen
OKEA (Hold, TP: NOK23.00) - Struggling to identify any near-term share...
We have cut our near-term oil price estimates given the softer oil market balance than we expected but have raised our gas price assumptions on increased geopolitical risk. We forecast negative FCF for 2024–2026, and see downside risk to Statfjord production estimates. Thus, we struggle to see any near-term catalysts, and believe the stock is fairly valued. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK23 target price.
- Steffen Evjen
Strong NCS production in July
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for July showed strong liquids production of 2,079kboed (6.2% above forecast) and gas production of 360mcm/d (12.3% above forecast). Overall production was 4.35mmboed, up 5% MOM (9.3% above forecast). Company-wise, production was up MOM for Equinor, Vår Energi and OKEA, but down for Aker BP and DNO. With the Q2 reporting season complete, the NOD’s field-by-field breakdown should be well known.
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published a Q2 survey on our US shale universe. Production guidance saw limited estimate revisions, and is still expected c4% higher YOY, while capex is expected to be flattish YOY. In other news, DNO released its Q2 report, with figures broadly in line with consensus. Due to its solid balance sheet, the company decided to increase its quarterly DPS by 25%, from NOK0.25 to NOK0.3125. Also, Equinor won a US offshore wind lease auction, securing a long-term development option for a b...
VAALCO Energy, Inc. Announces Participation in EnerCom Denver Conferen...
VAALCO Energy, Inc. Announces Participation in EnerCom Denver Conference HOUSTON, Aug. 14, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- VAALCO Energy, Inc. (NYSE: EGY; LSE: EGY) (“VAALCO” or the “Company”) today announced its participation in the EnerCom Denver Conference to be held in Denver, Colorado where Chief Executive Officer George Maxwell is scheduled to make a presentation on Tuesday, August 20th at 8:05 am Mountain Time (9:05 am Central Time). Senior management will also host one-on-one meetings with investors. The presentation will be webcast live and archived on VAALCO’s website, , in the “Inves...
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
US shale: Significant overspending in Q2 and limited production growth
Our Q2 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). Our survey also suggests capex down ~1% YOY, as the companies continue to guide for flat activity. For Q2, our universe spent 120% of its operating cash flow as net debt continues to build across the industry.
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, Panoro Energy and DNO released Q2 trading updates. Panoro Energy reported slightly weaker-than-expected net production at 8.7kboed, leaving downside risk to the 2024 production guidance. However, we see H2 production trending up, leaving the company well placed for significant FCF generation in 2025–2026e (FCF yields of 35–40%). For DNO, gross production from Kurdistan was fairly in line with our estimate, while North Sea production was slightly better. In other news, BlueNord reporte...
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