AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 30/05/2025

Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Gearing-up for acquisitions? – 1Q25 production was 4,085 boe/d with no horizontal wells drilled in the period. RCE is more mature than CN and while no drilling has taken place at RCE, the decline rate between 4Q24 and 1Q25 was only ~5%. 1Q25 Production was constrained by increased water production preventing the company increasing the speed of the pumps at some of its producing wells. The increased amount of produced water increase...

Energy Morning - 28 May 2025

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 23/05/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Adding four low risk drill-ready shallow gas prospects to start drilling by YE25 – ADX has now matured 13 shallow gas prospects across the ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II licence areas in Austria. The play is proven, supported by historical discoveries within the basin. Nearby historical discoveries in the area have produced 220 bcf to date. The prospects benefit from AVO anomalies, enhanc...

Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): The road to 50 mboe/d by 2030

• During the capital markets day last week, Vaalco outlined a production growth profile reaching >45 mboe/d in 2029 and 50 mboe/d in 2030 – surpassing the peak production of ~40 mboe/d that we had anticipated. • Production is expected to reach ~30 mboe/d by mid-2026 , driven by the 2025/2026 drilling program in Gabon and the restart of production at Baobab in Côte d’Ivoire (CI). • The next major increase is forecasted for 3Q28, with the start-up of Venus in EG, adding +20 mbbl/d gross productio...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/05/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C: Recovering 75% WI of licences in Morocco – Energean has returned its Moroccan offshore interests to Chariot. As a result, Chariot now holds 75% in the Lixus Offshore and Rissana Offshore licences. Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.90 per share: Acquiring a LNG facility for Kazakhstan to deliver first LNG sale in 2Q26 – 1Q25 production in Uzbekistan was 11,179 boe/d (+6% vs. production in 4Q24). Condor ...

Pharos Energy Plc (LSE: PHAR): High impact drilling in Vietnam in 4Q25...

• Production from January to April 2025 was 5,757 boe/d, comprising 4,216 boe/d from Vietnam and 1,541 bbl/d from Egypt. This is consistent with the FY25 production guidance of 5.0-6.2 mboe/d, which has been reaffirmed. • In Egypt, receivables increased from US$29.5 million at year-end 2024 to US$31.7 mm by the end of April. However, the company has received US$4.9 mm from EGPC over the same period. Pharos held US$22 mm in cash at the end of April, in line with our expectations. • The FY25 capex...

Hybridan Small Cap Feast: 15/05/2025

Our daily digest of news from UK Small Caps 15th May 2025 @HybridanLLP * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) or similar announcement has been made ***Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement ****Alphabetically arranged Dish of the day Admissions: None Delistings: Alliance Pharma (APH.L) and Zytronic (ZYT.L) delisted today from AIM. What’s baking in the oven? Potential** Init...

Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): Strong quarter. Resilient to low oil price

• 1Q25 WI production of 22,402 boe/d was at the high end of expectations. The Ebouri well continues to produce at ~1 mbbl/d (gross) on test. • Cash flow from operations was US$32.7 mm, while capex of US$58 mm came in below projections. Underlying cash flow was even higher, at ~US$41 mm. Additionally, one lifting in Gabon (~US$30 mm) was allocated to the Gabonese State as its share of profit oil, with no further allocations expected for the remainder of 2025. • At the end of March, Vaalco reporte...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 09/05/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 guidance – 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia. Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy. Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations ...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor reported Q1 results in line with expectations. However, we continue to see valuation downside due to Empire Wind risks and a likely sharp YOY drop in 2026e buybacks. OKEA also reported in-line Q1 results. In other news, Equinor announced it agreed to sell its 60% Peregrino stake at a solid price, although we believe the proceeds would have to support near-term shareholder returns to drive a positive share price reaction.

A waiting game worth joining

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 29 April 2025

Energy Morning - 28 April 2025

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Vår Energi reported Q1 results very much in line with expectations. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and maintained its dividend. Also, OKEA reported a solid Q1, with production and prices slightly above our estimates. While a technical goodwill impairment reduces its dividend basket for 2025, we view this as non-material, as we do not expect any dividends before 2027. Meanwhile, we are 5% below consensus on Q1e EBIT ahead of Equinor’s Q1 results on 30 April (07:00 CET), ...