Crude Quarterly Q1'25: weaker oil market fundamentals

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 3 April

OKEA (Buy, TP: NOK23.00) - Set for strong sales and cash flow

Ahead of the Q1 report, due around 07:00 CET on 29 April, we forecast net production of ~33kboed and EBITDA of USD189m (no reliable consensus). We expect a meaningful overlift position and working capital release in the quarter, with USD69m in FCF, increasing OKEA’s net cash position to USD120m (NOK12/share or ~65% of current market cap). While we still forecast FCF to be negative in 2025–2026 due to high investments in new developments, we continue to find the long-term case attractive given a ...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on the harsh reality of USD70/bbl for our coverage. While investors appear to be positioning for lower oil prices, we believe consensus FCF estimates for NCS large caps remain overly aggressive. Meanwhile, DNO announced a discovery at the Kjøttkake prospect, north-west of Troll, adding ~NOK0.8/share (~4%) to DNO’s NAV and ~NOK1/share to Aker BP’s (

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/03/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Production rises again. Maiden reserves report. First LNG sales in Kazakhstan on track for 1H26 – YE24 2P reserves in Uzbekistan were estimated at 18.5 mmboe. 4Q24 production was 10,511 boe/d increasing to 12,019 boe/d in March to date and 12,288 boe/d over the past five days. In March, Condor signed a non-binding letter of intent outlining the basic terms and conditions for ...

Pharos Energy Plc (LSE: PHAR): Return to production growth in Vietnam

• FY24 production and YE24 net cash have already been reported. • The FY25 production guidance of 5.0-6.2 mboe/d is unchanged. However the highlight of the press release is the upcoming programme in Vietnam. • The FY25 capex guidance has increased to US$37–66 mm, up from the previous US$33 mm. The minimum programme includes drilling the TGT appraisal commitment well (18X) and procuring long-lead items for three TGT infill wells and two CNV wells (one appraisal well, 5X, and one infill well), sc...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Weekly news, topics and discussion

This week, NCS February production was broadly in line with the NOD’s expectations, with total output flat MOM but down 2.4% YOY. Aker BP showed solid January production, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO showed declines MOM. Halten East is now on stream, but its slow ramp-up limits Vår Energi’s 2025 uplift to ~5kboed, reinforcing the downside risk to its 330–360kboed guidance. Also, DNO successfully placed a new USD600m bond (8.5% coupon) to refinance DNO04 and for general corporate purpo...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 21/03/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.10 per share: Significant power transaction highlights the value of the S. Africa electricity trading business – Etana Energy, the South African electricity trading business (49% held by Chariot) has arranged a US$55 mm guarantee finance facility through Standard Bank and secured an equity investment of up to US$20 mm from Norfund for working capital. In exchange, Standard Bank and Norfund will ho...

NCS February production in line

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for February showed liquids production of 1,938kboed (in line with its forecast) and gas production of 355mcm/d (3.8% above its estimate). Overall production was 4.17mmboed, flat MOM (1.8% above its forecast), but down 2.4% YOY. Company-wise, Aker BP reported solid production in January, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO all reported production down MOM.

Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY): Two large projects to boost FY26 production

• 4Q24 production was 25,300 boe/d; which is in line with our expectations. • The YE24 WI 2P reserves were estimated at 96.1 mmboe) Adjusting for the acquisition of the Ivory Coast assets, the company has organically replaced over 100% of the FY24 production of ~9 mmboe. This exceeds our expectations and reflects the strong performance of Vaalco’s various assets. • Vaalco expects to produce 19.3-22.3 mboe/d in 2025 with a capex of US$270-300 mm. The guidance is below our forecast of 24.9 mbbl/d,...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, BlueNord cut its Q1 production guidance by ~25% due to a breaker failure at Tyra, implying a 5% hit to 2025 guidance and likely delaying the first dividend from March to May. Following DNO’s Sval Energi acquisition, we upgraded OKEA to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK23 (20). We believe historical NCS transaction multiples provide valuation support for OKEA. Meanwhile, the sector is down 10–20% since Brent peaked at USD82/bbl in mid-January, with scarce oil macro support ...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/03/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Reserves increase showcases FY24 drilling success – YE24 2P and 3P reserves are estimated at 13.6 mmboe and 22.3 mmboe, respectively. This represents an increase of 15% and 25%, respectively vs. YE23. Adding back FY24 production of 1.3 mmboe, the 2024 activity program has added approximately 2.8 mmboe of 2P reserves and 5.3 mmboe of 3P reserves at Tapir (overall increase ...

OKEA (Buy, TP: NOK23.00) - Transactions provide value support

DNO is set to acquire Sval Energi at an EV/2P of USD11.3/boe, broadly matching the NCS transaction average. Meanwhile, OKEA is trading at USD3.9/boe on the similar metric, and even the low-end of historical NCS transaction metrics would calculate to ~100–150% upside potential to the last close. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK23 (20), with the latter still implying a P/NAV 0.6x, although we see even greater upside potential in an M&A scenario.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.