Macau’s Jan 26 GGR reached MOP22.6b, up 8% mom and 24% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level. The Jan 26 GGR number beat market consensus by 5%. Macau visitations for the full-year increased 15% yoy to 40.1m, up 2% vs 2019's level, setting a new historical high. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick.
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
Macau’s Dec 25 GGR reached MOP20.9b, down 1% mom but up 15% yoy. The Dec 25 GGR number recovered to 91% of 2019’s level, missing market consensus by 3% and reflecting a relatively subdued year-end performance. For 2025, GGR reached MOP247.4b, rising 9% yoy and recovering to 85% of 2019’s level. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect GGR to reach MOP258.6b, up 5% yoy and recovering to 88% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick.
Top Stories Economics | PMI December Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back in the expansionary zone for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved at 50.2 (+0.7pt mom), driven by a rebound in construction activity, while services PMI remained slightly contractionary, pointing to weak domestic demand. Enterprise PMI showed divergent trends, with large firms leading the improvement. Overall, the December data points to an uneven recovery despite the positive headline numbers. ...
Greater China Economics | PMI December Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back in the expansionary zone for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved at 50.2 (+0.7pt mom), driven by a rebound in construction activity, while services PMI remained slightly contractionary pointing to weak domestic demand. Enterprise PMI showed divergent trends, with large firms leading the improvement. Overall, the December data points to uneven recovery despite the positive headline numbers....
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed names and segments include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands China. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Macau’s Nov 25 GGR reached MOP 21.1b, down 12% mom but up 14% yoy, and recovering to 92% of 2019’s level. For 11M25, GGR reached MOP 226.5b, up 9% yoy and recovering to 84% of 2019’s level. In Oct 25, visitations to Macau increased 25% mom and 11% yoy to 3.5m, up 8% vs 2019’s level. Both hotel occupancy rates and average room rates rose mom in Oct 25. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick.
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand stayed weak in Nov 25, with new-home sales in 28 cities down 42% yoy and second hand home prices in most cities falling. Land auctions in Shanghai and Hangzhou cooled, with most plots near reserve prices. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China property, with CR Land as our top pick for its consistent earnings outperformance. Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Nov 25 GGR reached MOP 21.1b, down 12% mom but up 14% yoy, and recovering to 92% o...
Galaxy’s 3Q25 normalised adjusted EBITDA rose 5% qoq, but Typhoon Ragasa decreased the EBITDA by HK$140m. In Oct 25, the company delivered good performance, driven by robust visitations and an unusual win rate in the VIP segment, with this momentum continuing into Nov 25. Looking ahead, management expects 4Q25 to perform slightly above normal seasonality, supported by the top premium mass and VIP segments. Maintain BUY; cut target price by 4% to HK$47.00 (previously HK$49.00).
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The anti-involution policy boosted OEMs’ 3Q25 earnings by ending the price war. However, the industry disruptor BYD saw worsened liquidity due to sales slowdown and inventory pile-up. Auto part companies saw margin erosion in 3Q25 due to delayed impacts from the OEMs’ price war, but 4Q25 margin will stabilise. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Cut target price for Li Auto to HK$60.0. Raise target price for Weich...
Top Stories Sector Update | Automobile The anti-involution policy boosted OEMs’ 3Q25 earnings by ending the price war. However, the industry disruptor BYD saw worsened liquidity due to sales slowdown and inventory pile-up. Auto part companies saw margin erosion in 3Q25 due to delayed impacts from the OEMs’ price war, but 4Q25 margin will stabilise. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Cut target price for Li Auto to HK$60.0. Raise target price for Weicha...
Galaxy Entertainment Group Selected Unaudited Q3 2025 Financial Data Continues To Lead Macau’s Non-Gaming Diversification Through MICE, Entertainment And Sporting Events Q3 2025 Group Normalized EBITDA Of $3.3 Billion Up 7% Year-on-Year And Up 5% Quarter-on-Quarter Paid An Interim Dividend Of $0.70 Per Share In October 2025 Continues To Ramp Up Capella At Galaxy Macau And Progressing With The Fitting Out Of Phase 4 HONG KONG, Nov. 05, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Galaxy Entertainment Group (“GEG”, “Company” or the “Group”) (HKEx stock code: 27) today reported results for the three-month p...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick.
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
We observed the following trends in holiday consumption: a) jewellery performed well on rising gold prices; b) retail and catering consumption was modest, with growth decelerating from that during the 2025 Spring Festival and Labour Day; c) specialty retail (duty-free) saw per capita spending improve; and d) consumers continued to show enthusiasm for tourism and leisure spending, with domestic long-haul travel and outbound travel gaining popularity. The lower-than-expected Macau visitor arrivals...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
Macau’s Sep 25 GGR was MOP$18.3b, down 17% mom but up 6% yoy, recovering to 83% of 2019’s level. This missed market consensus by 3%, largely due to Super Typhoon Ragasa forcing a 33-hour closure of all casinos and disrupting entry points. However, we expect October to be another strong month due to the Golden Week holiday. We hence raise our full-year GGR forecast by 1% to MOP$245b, implying 8% yoy growth and 84% recovery to 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
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