Galaxy’s 3Q25 normalised adjusted EBITDA rose 5% qoq, but Typhoon Ragasa decreased the EBITDA by HK$140m. In Oct 25, the company delivered good performance, driven by robust visitations and an unusual win rate in the VIP segment, with this momentum continuing into Nov 25. Looking ahead, management expects 4Q25 to perform slightly above normal seasonality, supported by the top premium mass and VIP segments. Maintain BUY; cut target price by 4% to HK$47.00 (previously HK$49.00).
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The anti-involution policy boosted OEMs’ 3Q25 earnings by ending the price war. However, the industry disruptor BYD saw worsened liquidity due to sales slowdown and inventory pile-up. Auto part companies saw margin erosion in 3Q25 due to delayed impacts from the OEMs’ price war, but 4Q25 margin will stabilise. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Cut target price for Li Auto to HK$60.0. Raise target price for Weich...
Top Stories Sector Update | Automobile The anti-involution policy boosted OEMs’ 3Q25 earnings by ending the price war. However, the industry disruptor BYD saw worsened liquidity due to sales slowdown and inventory pile-up. Auto part companies saw margin erosion in 3Q25 due to delayed impacts from the OEMs’ price war, but 4Q25 margin will stabilise. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Cut target price for Li Auto to HK$60.0. Raise target price for Weicha...
Galaxy Entertainment Group Selected Unaudited Q3 2025 Financial Data Continues To Lead Macau’s Non-Gaming Diversification Through MICE, Entertainment And Sporting Events Q3 2025 Group Normalized EBITDA Of $3.3 Billion Up 7% Year-on-Year And Up 5% Quarter-on-Quarter Paid An Interim Dividend Of $0.70 Per Share In October 2025 Continues To Ramp Up Capella At Galaxy Macau And Progressing With The Fitting Out Of Phase 4 HONG KONG, Nov. 05, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Galaxy Entertainment Group (“GEG”, “Company” or the “Group”) (HKEx stock code: 27) today reported results for the three-month p...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick.
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
We observed the following trends in holiday consumption: a) jewellery performed well on rising gold prices; b) retail and catering consumption was modest, with growth decelerating from that during the 2025 Spring Festival and Labour Day; c) specialty retail (duty-free) saw per capita spending improve; and d) consumers continued to show enthusiasm for tourism and leisure spending, with domestic long-haul travel and outbound travel gaining popularity. The lower-than-expected Macau visitor arrivals...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
Macau’s Sep 25 GGR was MOP$18.3b, down 17% mom but up 6% yoy, recovering to 83% of 2019’s level. This missed market consensus by 3%, largely due to Super Typhoon Ragasa forcing a 33-hour closure of all casinos and disrupting entry points. However, we expect October to be another strong month due to the Golden Week holiday. We hence raise our full-year GGR forecast by 1% to MOP$245b, implying 8% yoy growth and 84% recovery to 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. Take profits on Alibaba and Xiaomi; cut losses on Anta.
On 16 Sep 25, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other government departments jointly issued a plan to expand service consumption. This plan introduces 19 measures focusing on five areas. We highlight IP-related consumption and tourism as the two primary themes positioned to benefit the most. In addition, the government plans to optimise student vacation schedules by exploring the possibility of shortening winter and summer vacations while introducing spring and autumn vacations to increase the ...
In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
Aug 25 GGR came in at MOP$22.2b, setting yet another post-pandemic high. The Aug 25 GGR remained largely flat mom and increased 12% yoy, recovering to 91% of 2019’s level. For the first eight months combined, GGR reached MOP$163.1b, up 7% yoy and recovering to 82% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on Macau’s gaming sector. Top pick remains Galaxy (27 HK).
ISticking With China We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int'l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $119-$121. Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 3-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Short-term supports to w...
Galaxy’s 2Q25 normalised EBITDA rose 7% qoq. In 2Q25, the lower hold rate led to a modest mass market share gain. However, the hold rate has been normalising qtd. With Capella’s opening, management expects reinvestments efficiency to be optimised further amid intense market competition. The company declared an interim dividend of HK$0.70, implying a payout ratio of 58%, and management expects the payout ratio of about 60% to remain sustainable. Maintain BUY; raise target price by 5% to HK$45.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$40.18/Target: HK$45.00) Galaxy’s 2Q25 normalised EBITDA rose 7% qoq. In 2Q25, the lower hold rate led to a modest mass market share gain. However, the hold rate has been normalising qtd. With Capella’s opening, management expects reinvestments efficiency to be optimised further amid intense market competition. The company declared an interim dividend of HK$0.70, implying a payout ratio of 58%, and management expects the payout rat...
GREATER CHINA Results Galaxy Entertainment Group (27 HK/BUY/HK$40.18/Target: HK$45.00) 2Q25: Normalised EBITDA up 7% qoq; expects reinvestment efficiency to optimise. Increased dividend payout to remain sustainable. Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH/BUY/Rmb1,437.04/Target: Rmb1,722.00) 2Q25: On track to achieve full-year target; expect wholesale price pressure to persist into 2H25. Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK/BUY/HK$88.30/Target: HK$105.00) ...
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