Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom, respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, while adding Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Company Results | Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/B...
Singapore equities delivered a strong January performance, with the STI rising 5.6% to fresh record highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions that drove flight-to-safety flows. Manufacturing activity remained in mild expansion, led by electronics and AI-related demand. Market/corporate catalysts during the month include REIT earnings, IPO interest in Catalist and continued strength in gold-linked counters.
Bloody start of the week fixed SOFIX at 1 354.78 (-1.46%). Chimimport (CHIM, EUR 0.51, -10.53%) and First Investment Bank (FIB, EUR 3.42, -7.07%) slumped with insignificant daily volume while Doverie United Holding (DUH, EUR 6.88, -3.64%) dropped under a moderate selling pressure on Monday. Sirma Group Holding (SGH, EUR 1.24, -3.88%) disappointed investors with poor Q4’25 financial performance and the IT holding lost altitude with small daily turnover. Sopharma Trading (SFT, EUR 3.84, -4.00%) an...
It appeared that the fresh 18-year highs reached in recent sessions attracted increased profit-taking, as the Bulgarian equity market came under selling pressure on Friday, echoing the cautious sentiment from global markets. SOFIX (1 374.91, -0.76%) closed lower, weighed down by declines in Shelly Group (SLYG, EUR 68.00, -2.30%) and First Investment Bank (FIB, EUR 3.68, -2.13%), despite the absence of any negative surprises in the latest financial disclosures. On a broader base, Eleven Capital (...
The positive sentiment on the Bulgarian Stock Exchange weakened on Thursday, pushing all major indexes into negative territory, with SOFIX (1 385.46, -1.40%) recording the steepest decline. Doverie (DUH, EUR 7.10, -8.51%) came under pronounced selling pressure, followed by Smart Organic (SO, EUR 17.20, -3.37%), Central Cooperative Bank (CCB, EUR 1.84, -3.16%), and Chimimport (CHIM, EUR 0.58, -3.33%), though trading volumes across these names remained subdued. A sharp advance in Sopharma Trading ...
Global macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges weighed on the Bulgarian economy over the past year, primarily through weaker external trade dynamics. Despite this, economic growth remained solid. Real GDP expanded by 2.8% in Q1, 3.5% in Q2, and 3.0% in Q3, supported almost entirely by strong domestic demand. Several factors underpinned this robust consumption growth with the most important being the growth of compensation and the euro transition effect. For 2026 the projections by major i...
The Bulgarian equity market entered a phase of consolidation after reaching an 18-year record high, with the main indexes posting their first losses since the beginning of the year. Recent top performer Chimimport (CHIM, EUR 0.585, -7.14%) led the pullback, followed by Sirma Group (SGH, EUR 1.20, -2.44%) and Elana Agrocredit (EAC, EUR 0.55, -2.65%). Profit-taking activity dominated the session, while trading volumes within SOFIX (1 395.85, -1.33%) remained below the 3-month average, indicating a...
Greater China Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit ...
Broad increase of index members lifted SOFIX (1 323.06, +4.42%) to an 18-year high. Sirma Group Holding (SGH, EUR 1.30, +17.12%) and Chimimport (CHIM, EUR 0.44, +15.79%) led daily gainers with higher daily turnover while Sopharma (SFA, EUR 1.785, +7.21%), Eurohold (EUBG, EUR 1.09, +7.92%) and Central Cooperative Bank (CCB, EUR 1.00, +5.26%) jumped without significant daily volume. Positive sentiment raised all other indexes and BGBX40 (224.48, +3.32%) and BGTR30 (1 064.12, +2.24%) closed green o...
Indonesia Company Update | Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp800/Target: Rp1,500) DEWA is entering a structural earnings upcycle driven by full in-house fleet utilisation, sharply higher operating capacity, and tighter cost control. Funding is secured to support expansion, while balance sheet optimisation could unlock dividends. With execution risk materially reduced and copper upside unpriced, we see scope for a valuation re-rating and maintain BUY with a DCF-based target price of Rp1,500. Malay...
Monday marked the final trading session of the year with BGN as the settlement currency. All major indexes closed in positive territory with solid gains, led by the broad BGBX40 (203.81, +0.98%). Sofia Commerce (SCOM, BGN 5.70, +11.76%), Speedy (SPDY, BGN 192.00, +6.67%), and Bravo Properties (BPF, BGN 1.03, +5.10%) topped the gainers’ list, although advances were achieved on low volumes and within widened bid/ask spreads. Investor focus remained on Sirma Group (SGH, BGN 1.89, +1.61%), which con...
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 242 pages of detailed analysis on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides:
The final session of the last full trading week before year-end closed on a positive note for the Bulgarian equity market, reflecting the constructive sentiment observed in recent days. Chimimport (CHIM, BGN 0.745, +2.76%) and Sirma Group (SGH, BGN 1.86, +6.29%) contributed the most to SOFIX (1 148.45, +0.45%), which rewrote its 18-year high. Meanwhile, light-volume trades with Albena (ALB, BGN 27.60, +5.34%) and Gradus (GR6, BGN 1.09, +9.00%) drove the outperformance of the broader BGBX40 (201....
The Bulgarian stock market closed in positive territory on Wednesday, as investor activity continued to improve toward the end of both the month and the year. SOFIX gained 0.34%, finishing the session at 1 138.81 points. The advance was driven primarily by increased interest in Elana Agrocredit (EAC, BGN 1.08, +2.86%), as well as continued strong trading in Sopharma (SFA, BGN 2.89, +1.40%), which has been among the most actively traded shares in recent weeks. Additional support for the index cam...
Today, we are publishing the Automotive section of our 29th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. We will publish sections on Hyperscale & Cloud, Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, and Foundry later this week. Auto demand came in above expectations, with limited signs of an air-pock...
The Bulgarian equity market kept its recent upward trend, adding another meaningful portion to the weekly gains for all major indexes. SOFIX (1 108.63, +1.20%) recorded a new 18-year high, once again driven by Doverie (DUH, BGN 11.60, +9.43%) at the top of the leader board. The increasing investor interest ahead of the upcoming switch from BGN to EUR continued to attract additional participation, with Sopharma (SFA, BGN 2.78, +1.83%) and Chimimport (CHIM, BGN 0.71, +1.43%) standing out in this s...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile We expect China’s vehicle wholesale shipment to grow 4.9% to 35.7m units in 2026, with EV shipments surging 22.9% and exports rising 20.8%. The anti-involution policy and subsidy rollback will curb overall sales growth but improve OEM margins by banning price wars, while auto parts suppliers regain bargaining power. Key 2026 investment themes include ADAS, humanoid robotics, eVTOL and recovery of lithium carbonate prices. Maintain MARKET WEIGH...
The Bulgarian equity market faced a broader-based session at the start of December, resulting in mixed moves across the major indexes. BGBX40 (195.15, +0.21%) led the gainers as Doverie (DUH, BGN 9.52, +3.03%) and Eleven Capital (11C, BGN 16.50, +2.48%) supported the advance, while Neochim (NEOH, BGN 23.00, +15.00%) surged the most, boosted by an unusually high-volume trade executed at the session’s peak price. The daily turnover continued to exceed the 3-month average on a broader front — a tre...
The Bulgarian equities inched higher on Friday, recovering most of the previous session’s losses and closing the week with modest gains. A rebound in Advance Terrafund (ATER, BGN 2.67, +1.91%) and a steady bid in Shelly Group (SLYG, EUR 56.40, +1.44%) helped to lift all major indexes, with SOFIX (1 087.77, +0.14%) leading the advance. Trading volumes were broadly unchanged from the prior session, remaining subdued for the season. Chimimport (CHIM, BGN 0.70, 0.00%) and Eurohold (EUBG, BGN 1.90, +...
Back to Near-Term Bullish on SPX and QQQ We downgraded our near-term outlook on the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) to neutral last week (11/19/25 Compass), after being bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). Crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $580-$583 on QQQ held last week, and we are right back to being near-term bullish as long as these support levels continue to hold. Just know that SPX could see...
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