A director at Malayan Banking Berhad sold 20,000 shares at 9.940MYR and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
2H24 Financial Stability Report: Banking System Remains Sound BNM’s 2H24 Financial Stability Report highlights that while Malaysia is not fully insulated from external risks like US trade policies and geopolitical tensions, the banking system is well-positioned to weather potential headwinds given the strong provision buffers and liquidity position. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT as the risk-reward remains balanced.
Finely Balanced – Focus On Laggards We expect sector earnings growth to ease to 7% in 2025 (from 9% in 2024) due to slower non-interest income growth. While earnings resilience and attractive dividends support the investment case, valuations at +0.5SD above mean and foreign shareholding that is near a five-year high may limit upside. We maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring laggards RHB Bank, Hong Leong Bank, and Public Bank for their better riskreward, while adding AMMB for potential capit...
4Q24: Supported By Strong Non-interest Income Growth Maybank’s 4Q24 net profit was in line, supported by strong non-interest income and lower provisions. Looking ahead, we expect non-interest income growth to taper off while NIM could start to stabilise. We maintain HOLD on Maybank and a target price of RM10.56 (1.18x FY25 P/B, 10.2% ROE). The stock is trading at mean P/B which we deem fair given its modest earnings growth expectation of 3%, while the current dividend yield of 6% is also compara...
GREATER CHINA Economics Hong Kong Budget 2025-26 The budget balances fiscal discipline with strategic growth initiatives. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$64.05/Target: HK$80.00) 4Q24: Earnings disappoint; mainstream tools recovering in 2025 but visibility remains low. Maintain BUY. Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.66/Target: HK$13.30) 4Q24: Results miss slightly; CEO change and increased shareho...
Change Of Group CFO Malayan Banking (Maybank) announced the change of its group chief financial officer (CFO) Khalijah Ismail with immediate effect, following an internal inquiry according to Bursa’s announcement. Meanwhile pending the search for a new Group CFO, Malique Firdauz Ahmad Sidique will assume the position of acting group CFO, with effect from 17 Feb 25. Malique has served as Maybank Islamic’s CFO since late-23.
Loan Growth Tapers Off Loan growth slowed to 5.5% in Dec 24 (Nov 24: +5.8%), ending the year at the lower end of our 5.5-6.0% forecast due to weaker-than-expected business loan growth. We maintain our 2025 loan growth target of 6.0-7.0%, although the sluggish corporate loans remain a risk. With sector earnings growth likely to trail the broader market’s, we maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring laggards like Public Bank, RHB Bank, and Hong Leong Bank.
Assessing Capital Management Potential We believe that despite their healthy capital adequacy ratios, Malaysian banks are likely to take a cautious and gradual approach to capital management, prioritising sustainability given the uncertainty surrounding the full impact of Basel 4 implementation on capital ratios. Maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring laggards RHB, Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank for their better risk-reward.
Positive Outlook Priced In – Focus On Laggards The sector delivered 3Q24 earnings growth of 11% yoy, driven by lower provisions and robust trading and forex income. 9M24 earnings growth of 8% aligns with our fullyear assumption of 8%. With the sector trading at +1.0SD to its historical mean P/B and earnings growth lagging the KLCI (set to ease in 2025), much of the favourable macro outlook seems priced in. Maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring laggards RHB, Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank f...
3Q24: Supported By Strong Non-Interest Income Growth Maybank’s 3Q24 net profit was in line, supported by strong non-interest income and a turnaround in insurance net income. Looking ahead, we expect non-interest income growth to taper off while NIM could start to stabilise. We maintain HOLD on Maybank and target price of RM10.56 (1.18x FY25F P/B, 10.2% ROE). The stock is trading at mean PBV which we deem fair given its modest earnings growth forecast of 5% while current dividend yield of 6% is a...
GREATER CHINA Sector Banking: Improved 4Q24 outlook amid policy supports. Update China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$13.16/Target: HK$18.60): Trim earnings forecast amid rising macro risks; maintain BUY; remains as our top sector pick. MALAYSIA Results IOI Corporation (IOI MK/BUY/RM3.80/Target: RM3.60): 1QFY25: In line; stronger upstream offset by weaker downstream contribution. Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK/HOLD/RM21.62/Target: RM19.50): FY24: Results met expectations, where 4QFY24 r...
Loans Growth Tapers Off Loan growth slowed to 5.6% in Sep 24 (Aug 24: 6.0%) due to weaker business loans. We maintain our full-year loan growth target of 6.5-7.0%, supported by strong GDP growth, though weaker-than-expected corporate loans could pose a risk. The sector's riskreward remains balanced in the absence of strong earnings, with 2024/25 earnings growth likely to lag the broader market. Maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, focusing on sector laggards such as Public Bank, RHB Bank, and Hong L...
Loan Growth Tapers Off Loan growth slowed to 6.0% in Aug 24 (July: 6.4%) due to weaker business loans. We maintain our full-year loan growth target of 6.5-7.0%, supported by strong GDP growth, though weaker-than-expected corporate loans could pose a risk. The sector's riskreward remains balanced in the absence of strong earnings, with 2024/2025 earnings growth likely to lag the broader market. Maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, focusing on sector laggards such as Public Bank, RHB Bank and Hong Leo...
Positive Outlook Priced In; Focus On Quality Laggards The sector posted a muted 2Q24 PPOP growth of 3% yoy (down 2% qoq). With the sector trading at 1.0SD above its historical mean P/B and earnings growth lagging the KLCI, much of the favourable macro-outlook appears to be priced in. Although stock prices are likely to continue trending upwards with sustained foreign inflows, we maintain MARKET WEIGHT and recommend shifting to high-quality laggards with Public Bank and Hong Leong Bank as our pre...
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Exports rebounded in August but outlook remains challenging. Sector IT Hardware Maintain preference for the more defensive AI-device plays as uncertainty remains high. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. INDONESIA Update Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/HOLD/Rp7,250/Target: Rp7,760) 7M24: Strong ...
2Q24: Supported By Lower Provisions Maybank’s 2Q24 net profit was in line, supported by lower provisions, but pre-provision operating profit contracted 4% qoq and yoy due to negative operating Jaws and weaker non-interest income. Management lowered its full-year NIM outlook due to increased competition for loans and deposits. We maintain HOLD on Maybank with a higher target price of RM10.56 (1.18x FY25 P/B, 10.2% ROE), rolling over our target price to 2025.
GREATER CHINA Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$16.46/Target: HK$19.50) 1H24: Below expectations; exploring opportunities in overseas markets. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target: HK$33.70) 1H24: Results in line with surprise from special dividend. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$12.34/Target: HK$19.60) 1H24: Core net profit up 13% yoy. Accelerated store opening pace in 2H24; dividend payout expected to remain at reasonable leve...
Loans Growth Gains Traction Loans growth edged upwards to 6.5% (May: 5.8%) on a recovery in business loans. We raise our 2024 loans growth assumption to 6.5-7.0% on stronger business loans growth. This implies a 1.46x loans growth to GDP multiple (GDP forecast: 4.6%) which is relatively high vs the 10-year historical range of 0.90-1.70x. As earnings sensitivity to loans growth is rather modest, the impact on earnings forecast is only +0.5%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT with CIMB being our top pick wit...
INDONESIA Update Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ/BUY/Rp4,600/Target: Rp5,800) 5M24: Net profit up 8.9% yoy from strong other income. MALAYSIA Sector Banking May 24 loans growth declined to 5.8% from 6.1% in Apr 24. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT due to the absence of strong earnings catalysts. Update Sunway Construction (SCGB MK/BUY/RM3.79/Target: RM4.32) Song Hau 2 Thermal Power Plant proj...
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