A director at Malayan Banking Berhad sold 12,000 shares at 9.540MYR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years c...
Loans Growth Improves Loans growth improved to 5.3% in May 25 (Apr 25: 5.1%), driven by stronger construction loans. We are keeping our 2025 loans growth estimates at 5-6% (recently revised downwards from 6-7% on slower GDP growth forecasts). This implies a 1.4x loans to GDP growth multiplier which is broadly in line with the historical range of 1.0x- 1.70x. Maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring defensive plays like Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank.
INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlight Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ/NOT RATED/Rp328) A clear turning point. MALAYSIA Sector Banking Loans growth improved to 5.3% from 5.1% in May 25. The absence of strong earnings catalysts has prompted us to maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Results Sapura Energy (SAPE MK/BUY/RM0.05/Target: RM0.07) 1QFY26: Core losses are in line on poorer rig utilisation and lu...
Digital Banks – A Complement, Not A Threat Three of Malaysia’s five licensed digital banks have begun operations. However, with lending still limited and a RM3b asset cap in place during their early years, they are unlikely to pose a near-term threat to traditional banks. Established banks continue to advance their own digital agendas, and retain broader product capabilities and distribution networks. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with our sector top picks skewed more to defensive and undervalued bank...
1Q25: Supported By Lower Provisions Maybank’s 1Q25 net profit was in line, underpinned primarily by lower provisions, while pre-provision operating profit growth remained subdued. We maintain our HOLD call with a lower target price of RM10.30 (1.19x 2025F P/B, 10.6% ROE) after the earnings revision. The stock is trading near its historical mean P/BV, which we view as fair, reflecting modest earnings growth expectations of 2-3%, balanced by healthy provision buffers and an attractive 6.8% dividen...
Loan Growth Tapers Off Loan growth moderated slightly to 5.2% in Mar 25 (Feb 25: +5.3%), driven by softer household lending. In tandem with our downward revision of the 2025 GDP forecast to 4.0% (from 4.8%), we lower our system loan growth projection to a more tempered 5-6% range (previously 6-7%). We maintain our MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring top sector picks with resilient earnings profiles and potential upside from capital management initiatives.
2H24 Financial Stability Report: Banking System Remains Sound BNM’s 2H24 Financial Stability Report highlights that while Malaysia is not fully insulated from external risks like US trade policies and geopolitical tensions, the banking system is well-positioned to weather potential headwinds given the strong provision buffers and liquidity position. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT as the risk-reward remains balanced.
Finely Balanced – Focus On Laggards We expect sector earnings growth to ease to 7% in 2025 (from 9% in 2024) due to slower non-interest income growth. While earnings resilience and attractive dividends support the investment case, valuations at +0.5SD above mean and foreign shareholding that is near a five-year high may limit upside. We maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring laggards RHB Bank, Hong Leong Bank, and Public Bank for their better riskreward, while adding AMMB for potential capit...
4Q24: Supported By Strong Non-interest Income Growth Maybank’s 4Q24 net profit was in line, supported by strong non-interest income and lower provisions. Looking ahead, we expect non-interest income growth to taper off while NIM could start to stabilise. We maintain HOLD on Maybank and a target price of RM10.56 (1.18x FY25 P/B, 10.2% ROE). The stock is trading at mean P/B which we deem fair given its modest earnings growth expectation of 3%, while the current dividend yield of 6% is also compara...
GREATER CHINA Economics Hong Kong Budget 2025-26 The budget balances fiscal discipline with strategic growth initiatives. Results ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$64.05/Target: HK$80.00) 4Q24: Earnings disappoint; mainstream tools recovering in 2025 but visibility remains low. Maintain BUY. Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.66/Target: HK$13.30) 4Q24: Results miss slightly; CEO change and increased shareho...
Change Of Group CFO Malayan Banking (Maybank) announced the change of its group chief financial officer (CFO) Khalijah Ismail with immediate effect, following an internal inquiry according to Bursa’s announcement. Meanwhile pending the search for a new Group CFO, Malique Firdauz Ahmad Sidique will assume the position of acting group CFO, with effect from 17 Feb 25. Malique has served as Maybank Islamic’s CFO since late-23.
Loan Growth Tapers Off Loan growth slowed to 5.5% in Dec 24 (Nov 24: +5.8%), ending the year at the lower end of our 5.5-6.0% forecast due to weaker-than-expected business loan growth. We maintain our 2025 loan growth target of 6.0-7.0%, although the sluggish corporate loans remain a risk. With sector earnings growth likely to trail the broader market’s, we maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring laggards like Public Bank, RHB Bank, and Hong Leong Bank.
Assessing Capital Management Potential We believe that despite their healthy capital adequacy ratios, Malaysian banks are likely to take a cautious and gradual approach to capital management, prioritising sustainability given the uncertainty surrounding the full impact of Basel 4 implementation on capital ratios. Maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring laggards RHB, Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank for their better risk-reward.
Positive Outlook Priced In – Focus On Laggards The sector delivered 3Q24 earnings growth of 11% yoy, driven by lower provisions and robust trading and forex income. 9M24 earnings growth of 8% aligns with our fullyear assumption of 8%. With the sector trading at +1.0SD to its historical mean P/B and earnings growth lagging the KLCI (set to ease in 2025), much of the favourable macro outlook seems priced in. Maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, favouring laggards RHB, Hong Leong Bank and Public Bank f...
3Q24: Supported By Strong Non-Interest Income Growth Maybank’s 3Q24 net profit was in line, supported by strong non-interest income and a turnaround in insurance net income. Looking ahead, we expect non-interest income growth to taper off while NIM could start to stabilise. We maintain HOLD on Maybank and target price of RM10.56 (1.18x FY25F P/B, 10.2% ROE). The stock is trading at mean PBV which we deem fair given its modest earnings growth forecast of 5% while current dividend yield of 6% is a...
GREATER CHINA Sector Banking: Improved 4Q24 outlook amid policy supports. Update China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$13.16/Target: HK$18.60): Trim earnings forecast amid rising macro risks; maintain BUY; remains as our top sector pick. MALAYSIA Results IOI Corporation (IOI MK/BUY/RM3.80/Target: RM3.60): 1QFY25: In line; stronger upstream offset by weaker downstream contribution. Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK MK/HOLD/RM21.62/Target: RM19.50): FY24: Results met expectations, where 4QFY24 r...
Loans Growth Tapers Off Loan growth slowed to 5.6% in Sep 24 (Aug 24: 6.0%) due to weaker business loans. We maintain our full-year loan growth target of 6.5-7.0%, supported by strong GDP growth, though weaker-than-expected corporate loans could pose a risk. The sector's riskreward remains balanced in the absence of strong earnings, with 2024/25 earnings growth likely to lag the broader market. Maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, focusing on sector laggards such as Public Bank, RHB Bank, and Hong L...
Loan Growth Tapers Off Loan growth slowed to 6.0% in Aug 24 (July: 6.4%) due to weaker business loans. We maintain our full-year loan growth target of 6.5-7.0%, supported by strong GDP growth, though weaker-than-expected corporate loans could pose a risk. The sector's riskreward remains balanced in the absence of strong earnings, with 2024/2025 earnings growth likely to lag the broader market. Maintain a MARKET WEIGHT stance, focusing on sector laggards such as Public Bank, RHB Bank and Hong Leo...
Positive Outlook Priced In; Focus On Quality Laggards The sector posted a muted 2Q24 PPOP growth of 3% yoy (down 2% qoq). With the sector trading at 1.0SD above its historical mean P/B and earnings growth lagging the KLCI, much of the favourable macro-outlook appears to be priced in. Although stock prices are likely to continue trending upwards with sustained foreign inflows, we maintain MARKET WEIGHT and recommend shifting to high-quality laggards with Public Bank and Hong Leong Bank as our pre...
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