Greater China Economics | Economic Activity China’s 4Q25 GDP growth eased to 4.5% yoy, bringing 2025 growth to 5.0%, in line with the official target. December industrial production growth rose 5.2% yoy (-0.2ppt mom), but retail sales growth slowed to 0.9% yoy (-0.4ppt mom). FAI growth contracted further to -3.8% yoy ytd (-1.2ppt mom), dragged by persistent property FAI weakness (-17.2% ytd yoy). With momentum weakening into year-end, we expect more targeted policy support in 2026, particularly ...
Small/Mid Cap Highlights | Rukun Raharja (RAJA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp6,750) RAJA is pursuing multiple expansions to enhance synergies. Key initiatives include a gas compressor generating US$7m-8m in EBITDA annually from 4Q25 under a five-year contract, minority acquisitions of LNG and LPG tankers, a 60 MMSCFD LNG plant in Kalimantan targeted for 2030, and a 120 km Balikpapan to Samarinda pipeline with COD in 4Q27. Its subsidiary RATU acquired 20% of HCML. RAJA trades at 53.4x 2025F PE, reflecting a pre...
Small/Mid Cap Highlights | Rukun Raharja (RAJA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp6,750) RAJA is pursuing multiple expansions to enhance synergies. Key initiatives include a gas compressor generating US$7m-8m in EBITDA annually from 4Q25 under a five-year contract, minority acquisitions of LNG and LPG tankers, a 60 MMSCFD LNG plant in Kalimantan targeted for 2030, and a 120 km Balikpapan to Samarinda pipeline with COD in 4Q27. Its subsidiary RATU acquired 20% of HCML. RAJA trades at 53.4x 2025F PE, reflecting a pre...
Strategy | Potential LNG Infrastructure Investment Boom Indonesia is structurally shifting from pipeline gas to LNG due to declining legacy gas fields in Java and Sumatra and limited pipeline infrastructure. This shift is reinforced by power-sector decarbonisation and PLN’s capacity expansion, driving multi-year LNG demand and infrastructure investment. LNG-related stocks have rallied about 113% over the past three months. GTS Internasional (GTSI, Not Rated) remains the only pure-play LNG logist...
Economics | The 2025 Budget Realisation: A Deficit Beyond Targets, Stability Amid Spending The 2025 deficit widened to 2.92% of GDP, driven by a tax shortfall, though strong non-tax revenue provided an offset. Spending underperformed overall but showed a clear priority for social and capital projects. Markets remained stable due to the central bank’s intervention. For 2026, while the government targets a 2.7% of GDP deficit, we forecast a more realistic 2.8-3.0% gap. Financing will remain substa...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales growth slows to 0.8% yoy. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Update Sun Hung Kai & Co (86 HK/BUY/HK$3.47/Target: HK$5.86) 1H25 Preview: Positive market sentiment improves asset valuations. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Rukun Raharja (RAJA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp2,590) Building the future o...
Oil prices have increased 14% over the past two weeks to US$71.30/barrel currently with a rising number of market participants and increasing oil long positions. However, UOB GEMR maintains a cautious stance and refrains from making any knee-jerk adjustments to its Brent oil forecast, with prices projected to remain at US$65/barrel in 3Q25 and US$60/barrel in 4Q25. That said, we highlight several stocks that could benefit if the rise in oil prices is sustained.
RAJA benefits from a stable midstream, downstream, and low-cost upstream business while expanding into infrastructure, downstream assets, renewable energy, and ammonia. RAJA's share price surged 82.3% in six months, bringing its 2025F consensus PE to 19.7x, a premium to oil and gas related companies, driven by the recent listing of its 75.3%-owned subsidiary (RATU IJ) in Jan 25. However, it still trades at a 76% discount to conglomerate peers.
GREATER CHINA Results Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK/HOLD/HK$10.90/Target: HK$11.20) 2024: Results slightly miss our forecast but a solid beat of consensus estimates. Yields to moderate further in 2025. Maintain HOLD. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Rukun Raharja (RAJA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp2,260) Leveraging stability in oil & gas business. MALAYSIA Results Bermaz Auto (BAUTO MK/HOLD/RM1.04/Target: RM1.00) 9MFY25: Results below e...
A director at Rukun Raharja Tbk bought 35,735,100 shares at 2,000.000IDR and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...
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