reports
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
T-Mobile US Inc: 1 director
A director at T-Mobile US Inc sold 45,000 shares at 242.695USD and the significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Winter for wireless 1Q25
This note explores the drivers of growth and market share shifts in Mobile in 1Q25. Industry net adds, switching, and upgrades all increased sharply. Investors are wrestling with whether the market is healthy or whether the increase in activity reflects a pull-forward of activity from later in the year driven either by consumers’ concerns over the impact of tariffs on handset prices or by unusually aggressive promotions. We suspect that activity was pulled forward (as do two of the carriers)...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 1Q25
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds declined from an already weak pace a year ago and are well below the pre-pandemic norm. The expected recovery following the end of ACP didn’t materialize. We ponder whether growth is structurally lower, or whether temporary ACP-related pressures have persisted longer than expected.
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile 1Q25 Results Review & Model Update: Adds in-line; EBITDA st...
This note covers results in detail, updates to guidance, updates to the model, and trending charts. We remain above consensus for net adds and EBITDA (and our EBITDA estimate is conservative). We continue to think T-Mobile is the best positioned in a market with rising competition given lower ARPU, higher capacity, and great momentum. Buy ($308; +19%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile: Quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call
What’s new: in this note we cover the case for T-Mobile buying a cable asset and what we learned about the odds of this from the call, new insights into T-Mobile’s fiber strategy, what it means for Cable and Fiber assets, further thoughts on the slowdown in growth in the broadband market, important insights into what might be driving the strength in the mobile market, and how T-Mobile will approach tariffs. We will publish a separate comprehensive review of results and model update shortly.
- Blair Levin
In Good News for CMSCA, DIS (and Robocallers and Pirate Radio, Among O...
What’s New: The Fifth Circuit overturned the FCC’s 2020 and 2024 decisions to impose a $57 million fine against T for actions related to improper use customer data. Based on a recent Supreme Court decision, the appellate court ruled that the FCC actions violate T’s Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial, likely upending broader FCC enforcement efforts. In this note we analyze the impact of the Court’s decision on our coverage universe generally and well as specifically to some of the companie...
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile's most recent price moves suggest rising competition
What’s new: Verizon reported mid-single-digit growth in gross adds after amending their offers in mid-March and double-digit growth in gross adds after launching a three-year price guarantee in April. T-Mobile responded with new plans that include a five-year price guarantee this morning. We cover implications for the industry in this quick comment.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Conflicting expectations in mobile and broadband
In our Broadband Trends report published this week, we show that bottom-up forecasts are well below our top-down forecast. The disconnect is all in Cable, and mostly in Comcast. We don’t have enough conviction in our top-down forecast to make a call on Comcast, particularly ahead of 1Q25 results where management has provided very clear context on trends, but we suspect results for the year won’t be as bad as feared. By contrast in our Wireless Trends report last week, we showed that our forecas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Broadband Trends: Our broadband forecast
In this report we highlight a disconnect between our top-down forecast and our and “Consensus” bottom-up forecast for broadband subscribers. Either market growth is much worse than it appeared at the end of 2024, or Cable adds will be better than expected. We also update our top-down forecast and reprise our work on competitive positioning of the operators based on relative cNPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Wireless Trends: Expectations for net adds are too high
This report focuses on drivers of subscriber growth in 2025. Expectations for net adds are too high, though expectations for service revenue and EBTDA look fine. We also reprised our work on comparative NPS, provide a comprehensive review of 4Q24 trends, and update our long-term forecast
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Wireless Update: Kennedy Cancer Concerns
Plus, a Round One Win for T on 4.9 GHz, TMUS modifies DEI initiative, Carr Signals Hope for Reallocating Military Spectrum as CTIA Presses on Its Spectrum Needs and Its New Leader (Pai) Signals Splits with Carr on Merger Review Approach While there have been major developments in the last week on the future of USF, BEAD, and merger reviews, there have been smaller, but still significant, developments related to the future of wireless services. In this update, we cover those developments. The on...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Four killer insights from day one
We just wrapped up day one the Future-of-Connectivity conference that we host every year with BCG. We gleaned new insights into the risk of the broadband market getting more competitive, wireless market growth, what is driving the convergence imperative, and Lumen’s appetite for asset sales.
- Blair Levin
What Does Carr’s DEI Merger Ban Mean for TMUS, Media and Other Deals
Immediately after the election, investors were excited about the prospect of easier government approvals of transactions. However, as we have previously discussed, that is not the way the review process is working out. A further indication of the transaction barriers came up over the weekend, as multiple articles appeared stating that FCC Chair Carr would block any deal that requires FCC approval where a party has a DEI program. We have previously written about how Carr’s view on DEI would app...
T-Mobile Announces Proposed Public Offering of Senior Notes
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS) (“T-Mobile”) announced today that T-Mobile USA, Inc., its direct wholly-owned subsidiary (“T-Mobile USA” or the “Issuer”), plans to offer, subject to market and other conditions, senior notes (the “notes”) in a registered public offering. T-Mobile USA intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, which may include among other things, share repurchases, any dividends declared by T-Mobile’s Board of Directors and refinancing of existing indebtedness on an ongoing basis. Barclays Capital Inc.,...
T-Mobile Finalizing Sale of 800 MHz Spectrum Portfolio to Leading Priv...
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS) today announced it has reached an agreement in principle to divest the company’s 800 MHz spectrum portfolio to purchaser , a leading private investment firm focused on digital infrastructure and solutions to the global broadband industry. In partnership with energy and infrastructure experts from , Grain is planning to market the 800 MHz spectrum portfolio to utilities, other critical infrastructure industry operators, rural and regional operators, and other enterprises, meeting crucial unfulfilled telecommunications needs. Consumers a...
T-Mobile to Host Q1 2025 Earnings Call on April 24, 2025
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ: ) looks forward to discussing first quarter 2025 financial and operational results on Thursday, April 24, 2025, at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time (ET). The call will be accessible via dial-in with pre-registration as well as a webcast link on the Company’s Investor Relations website at . The earnings release, Investor Factbook, and other related materials will be available at approximately 4:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 24, 2025, at . Earnings Call Information Date/Time Thursday, April 24, 2025, at 4:30 p.m. (ET) Access via Webcast The e...
T-Mobile Reaches $16 Million in Funding for Hometown Grants, Strengthe...
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS) today announced its latest 25 Hometown Grant recipients, each set to receive up to $50,000 in funding from T-Mobile to support local development projects to revitalize their communities. Since kicking off its to small towns and rural communities in April 2021, the Un-carrier has provided more than $16 million in Hometown Grants to 375 communities across 48 states and Puerto Rico. Hometown Grants has sparked more than 150,000 volunteer hours, bringing people together to uplift their communities in big ways. “When we started Hometown ...
Spring into Savings with T-Mobile’s New Smartphone Offers
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS) is helping customers refresh for Spring (no cleaning required) with offers to get the season’s latest value 5G smartphones from top brands. This includes scoring the new — just announced today! — Google Pixel 9a on Us. For anyone looking for the latest AI tools or specs, the Un-carrier has feature-packed, wallet friendly options from Google, Motorola and Samsung. Right now, new and existing customers, including businesses, can get: This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Get the latest tech — including new G...
Beyond Fast: T‑Mobile’s 5G Advanced 6-Carrier Aggregation Sets Record-...
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Calling these record-breaking speeds “impressive” would be an understatement — we’re redefining what speed really means! Today, T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS) announced a groundbreaking achievement, reaching record downlink speed using Nokia’s cutting edge 5G RAN equipment. The testing was conducted on both a commercial Samsung Galaxy S25 and a non-commercial mobile test device leveraging the , all on America’s largest and fastest 5G network. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: The Un-Carrier with Nokia and Qualcomm Push Downlink Spee...
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