reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile 1Q25 Results Review & Model Update: Adds in-line; EBITDA st...
This note covers results in detail, updates to guidance, updates to the model, and trending charts. We remain above consensus for net adds and EBITDA (and our EBITDA estimate is conservative). We continue to think T-Mobile is the best positioned in a market with rising competition given lower ARPU, higher capacity, and great momentum. Buy ($308; +19%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile: Quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call
What’s new: in this note we cover the case for T-Mobile buying a cable asset and what we learned about the odds of this from the call, new insights into T-Mobile’s fiber strategy, what it means for Cable and Fiber assets, further thoughts on the slowdown in growth in the broadband market, important insights into what might be driving the strength in the mobile market, and how T-Mobile will approach tariffs. We will publish a separate comprehensive review of results and model update shortly.
- Blair Levin
In Good News for CMSCA, DIS (and Robocallers and Pirate Radio, Among O...
What’s New: The Fifth Circuit overturned the FCC’s 2020 and 2024 decisions to impose a $57 million fine against T for actions related to improper use customer data. Based on a recent Supreme Court decision, the appellate court ruled that the FCC actions violate T’s Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial, likely upending broader FCC enforcement efforts. In this note we analyze the impact of the Court’s decision on our coverage universe generally and well as specifically to some of the companie...
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile's most recent price moves suggest rising competition
What’s new: Verizon reported mid-single-digit growth in gross adds after amending their offers in mid-March and double-digit growth in gross adds after launching a three-year price guarantee in April. T-Mobile responded with new plans that include a five-year price guarantee this morning. We cover implications for the industry in this quick comment.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Conflicting expectations in mobile and broadband
In our Broadband Trends report published this week, we show that bottom-up forecasts are well below our top-down forecast. The disconnect is all in Cable, and mostly in Comcast. We don’t have enough conviction in our top-down forecast to make a call on Comcast, particularly ahead of 1Q25 results where management has provided very clear context on trends, but we suspect results for the year won’t be as bad as feared. By contrast in our Wireless Trends report last week, we showed that our forecas...
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Broadband Trends: Our broadband forecast
In this report we highlight a disconnect between our top-down forecast and our and “Consensus” bottom-up forecast for broadband subscribers. Either market growth is much worse than it appeared at the end of 2024, or Cable adds will be better than expected. We also update our top-down forecast and reprise our work on competitive positioning of the operators based on relative cNPS scores.
- Jonathan Chaplin
4Q24 Wireless Trends: Expectations for net adds are too high
This report focuses on drivers of subscriber growth in 2025. Expectations for net adds are too high, though expectations for service revenue and EBTDA look fine. We also reprised our work on comparative NPS, provide a comprehensive review of 4Q24 trends, and update our long-term forecast
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Wireless Update: Kennedy Cancer Concerns
Plus, a Round One Win for T on 4.9 GHz, TMUS modifies DEI initiative, Carr Signals Hope for Reallocating Military Spectrum as CTIA Presses on Its Spectrum Needs and Its New Leader (Pai) Signals Splits with Carr on Merger Review Approach While there have been major developments in the last week on the future of USF, BEAD, and merger reviews, there have been smaller, but still significant, developments related to the future of wireless services. In this update, we cover those developments. The on...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Four killer insights from day one
We just wrapped up day one the Future-of-Connectivity conference that we host every year with BCG. We gleaned new insights into the risk of the broadband market getting more competitive, wireless market growth, what is driving the convergence imperative, and Lumen’s appetite for asset sales.
- Blair Levin
What Does Carr’s DEI Merger Ban Mean for TMUS, Media and Other Deals
Immediately after the election, investors were excited about the prospect of easier government approvals of transactions. However, as we have previously discussed, that is not the way the review process is working out. A further indication of the transaction barriers came up over the weekend, as multiple articles appeared stating that FCC Chair Carr would block any deal that requires FCC approval where a party has a DEI program. We have previously written about how Carr’s view on DEI would app...
T-Mobile Announces Proposed Public Offering of Senior Notes
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS) (“T-Mobile”) announced today that T-Mobile USA, Inc., its direct wholly-owned subsidiary (“T-Mobile USA” or the “Issuer”), plans to offer, subject to market and other conditions, senior notes (the “notes”) in a registered public offering. T-Mobile USA intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, which may include among other things, share repurchases, any dividends declared by T-Mobile’s Board of Directors and refinancing of existing indebtedness on an ongoing basis. Barclays Capital Inc.,...
T-Mobile Finalizing Sale of 800 MHz Spectrum Portfolio to Leading Priv...
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS) today announced it has reached an agreement in principle to divest the company’s 800 MHz spectrum portfolio to purchaser , a leading private investment firm focused on digital infrastructure and solutions to the global broadband industry. In partnership with energy and infrastructure experts from , Grain is planning to market the 800 MHz spectrum portfolio to utilities, other critical infrastructure industry operators, rural and regional operators, and other enterprises, meeting crucial unfulfilled telecommunications needs. Consumers a...
T-Mobile to Host Q1 2025 Earnings Call on April 24, 2025
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ: ) looks forward to discussing first quarter 2025 financial and operational results on Thursday, April 24, 2025, at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time (ET). The call will be accessible via dial-in with pre-registration as well as a webcast link on the Company’s Investor Relations website at . The earnings release, Investor Factbook, and other related materials will be available at approximately 4:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, April 24, 2025, at . Earnings Call Information Date/Time Thursday, April 24, 2025, at 4:30 p.m. (ET) Access via Webcast The e...
T-Mobile Reaches $16 Million in Funding for Hometown Grants, Strengthe...
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS) today announced its latest 25 Hometown Grant recipients, each set to receive up to $50,000 in funding from T-Mobile to support local development projects to revitalize their communities. Since kicking off its to small towns and rural communities in April 2021, the Un-carrier has provided more than $16 million in Hometown Grants to 375 communities across 48 states and Puerto Rico. Hometown Grants has sparked more than 150,000 volunteer hours, bringing people together to uplift their communities in big ways. “When we started Hometown ...
Spring into Savings with T-Mobile’s New Smartphone Offers
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS) is helping customers refresh for Spring (no cleaning required) with offers to get the season’s latest value 5G smartphones from top brands. This includes scoring the new — just announced today! — Google Pixel 9a on Us. For anyone looking for the latest AI tools or specs, the Un-carrier has feature-packed, wallet friendly options from Google, Motorola and Samsung. Right now, new and existing customers, including businesses, can get: This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: Get the latest tech — including new G...
Beyond Fast: T‑Mobile’s 5G Advanced 6-Carrier Aggregation Sets Record-...
BELLEVUE, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Calling these record-breaking speeds “impressive” would be an understatement — we’re redefining what speed really means! Today, T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS) announced a groundbreaking achievement, reaching record downlink speed using Nokia’s cutting edge 5G RAN equipment. The testing was conducted on both a commercial Samsung Galaxy S25 and a non-commercial mobile test device leveraging the , all on America’s largest and fastest 5G network. This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: The Un-Carrier with Nokia and Qualcomm Push Downlink Spee...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Quick Take: T-Mobile raises prices
We have been getting questions on press reports that T-Mobile is raising prices on certain legacy plans by $5/line. The price increases were actually leaked a few weeks ago. We wouldn’t normally comment on news that broke weeks ago, but thought we would use this as an opportunity to touch on a couple of data points that have emerged over the course of the last couple of weeks.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: What Does BEAD State Bidding Tell Us?
Last week, we provided several notes analyzing how Congressional Republicans and the Administration, as well as others, were debating changes in the BEAD program. While that rhetoric pointed to significant changes ahead, the states have been proceeding under the existing rules set in the Biden Administration, making significant progress in ways generally not reflected in the DC discussions. In this note, we summarize the state activity and ISP bidding to date. We analyze what the state activi...
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Musk (and TMUS) Prevail (Kinda) Over T and VZ at FCC
In a note last fall, we predicted that if Trump were elected, Elon Musk would be the most powerful force in telecom policy, elevating satellite priorities over the policy priorities of traditional communications networks. One of the issues we pointed to where that influence might be exercised involved potential SpaceX interference with T’s cellular network. This past Friday, that FCC addressed that issue, granting a conditional waiver to SpaceX regarding out-of-band emissions (OOBE) that will i...
- Philip Burnett
MVNO Rates: EchoStar vs. Cable
A question we are often asked is how much the carriers charge MVNOs for wireless services. While working through EchoStar’s 10-K we noticed new reporting that seems to show the MVNO fee it paid in 2022 and 2023. In this brief note we unpack the relevant EchoStar reporting and compare the implied MVNO cost per subscriber to our estimates for the Cable MVNO.
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