Driven by ongoing issues in the Swedish operation, the Q4 results fell shy of our forecasts, with sales 4% below consensus and EBITA 11% below. Mild weather explained some of the shortfall, while company-specific issues affected the Swedish operation, outweighing otherwise solid performances in Norway and Other Europe as well as group FCF generation. We reiterate our BUY, but on lower margin estimates, we have cut our target price to SEK99 (102).
We expect mild weather and less snowfall in Sweden and Norway to weigh on Q4 results, while Rest of Europe is probably continuing its strong momentum. We have cut our top line for Q4e by c3%, and updated our estimates for the latest acquisitions. We still like the M&A opportunity in the DACH region and reiterate our BUY and SEK102 target price.
Q3 fell slightly short of consensus on the top line and EBITA; however, we believe the confirmed exit of a troubled contract provides more certainty on margins in Sweden. Norway was strong on the top line and EBITA margin, while Rest of Europe was weak on the top line, but strong on the EBITA margin versus consensus. We still like the multi-year M&A runway and reiterate our BUY. We have raised our target price to SEK102 (100).
We expect Green Landscaping to report a solid Q3, driven by organic revenue growth in Norway and Rest of Europe and easing comparables. We see Q3 as the trough for the Swedish business unit as it exits a loss-making contract. Despite a likely strong Q3e, we expect the results to be outshone by the recently announced CMD. We reiterate our BUY and SEK100 target price.
The Q2 top line surprised on the upside, with 5% organic growth, but the EBITA margin undershot consensus due to increased competition in Sweden and mix effects in a fast-growing Norwegian segment. We see the results as a small setback, and believe the margin weakness is temporary. We reiterate our BUY and SEK100 target price.
We expect another solid quarter, with greater competition in Swedish landscaping construction, but margin growth YOY on easy comparables. We are encouraged by the recent pick-up in M&A, and continue to like the case. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK100 (98), having increased our estimates for the recent acquisitions.
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