Q3 fell slightly short of consensus on the top line and EBITA; however, we believe the confirmed exit of a troubled contract provides more certainty on margins in Sweden. Norway was strong on the top line and EBITA margin, while Rest of Europe was weak on the top line, but strong on the EBITA margin versus consensus. We still like the multi-year M&A runway and reiterate our BUY. We have raised our target price to SEK102 (100).
We expect Green Landscaping to report a solid Q3, driven by organic revenue growth in Norway and Rest of Europe and easing comparables. We see Q3 as the trough for the Swedish business unit as it exits a loss-making contract. Despite a likely strong Q3e, we expect the results to be outshone by the recently announced CMD. We reiterate our BUY and SEK100 target price.
The Q2 top line surprised on the upside, with 5% organic growth, but the EBITA margin undershot consensus due to increased competition in Sweden and mix effects in a fast-growing Norwegian segment. We see the results as a small setback, and believe the margin weakness is temporary. We reiterate our BUY and SEK100 target price.
We expect another solid quarter, with greater competition in Swedish landscaping construction, but margin growth YOY on easy comparables. We are encouraged by the recent pick-up in M&A, and continue to like the case. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK100 (98), having increased our estimates for the recent acquisitions.
Green Landscaping Group is the most profitable landscaping company in Europe. We like its exposure to stable end markets and high share of public customers, allowing for dynamic M&A. We expect the rate of 8–10 acquisitions per year to continue, fuelled by the 2023 entry into the DACH region. We calculate an additional 25–38% upside potential to our 2026e EBITA if available FCF is deployed towards M&A. We initiate coverage with a BUY and SEK98 target price.
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