The tariff war poses significant uncertainties to global trade. Shipping and ports (MARKET WEIGHT) are impacted due to their high global trade exposure, though their subdued valuation implies limited downside risks. Cargo operations of airlines (UNDERWEIGHT) are hit by both higher tariffs and the US’ de minimis tax change, but weaker fuel prices would support airlines’ near-term earnings. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on domestic consumption-oriented logistics names, with JDL a top pick.
2024 core earnings of US$2.60b (+94% yoy) was in line, at 100% of our forecast. A final dividend of US$1.32 was declared, leading to a full-year yield of 13.5%. For 2025, management expects a more challenging business environment amid geopolitical tensions. We expect OOIL’s earnings to moderate 37% yoy in 2025. While share price downside is limited by its large net cash pile and still-decent 2025 yield, OOIL lacks near-term re-rating catalysts. Downgrade to HOLD. Target price: HK$114.50.
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply: Credit demand remains subdued. Sector Update Consumer: The State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption. Initiate Coverage Waterdrop Inc (WDH US/BUY/US$1.50/Target: US$2.20): From crowdfunding to insurtech leadership with differentiated business model. Results AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$61.25/Target: HK$93.00): 2024: VONB slightly below expectations; new US$1.6b buyback programme. Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH/BUY/Rmb26...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply February's M1 growth slowed to 0.1% yoy (-0.3ppt), missing consensus’ 1.0%, due to the Chinese New Year effect. M2 remained steady at 7.0% yoy, but new bank loans fell to Rmb1.01t compared with Jan 25’s Rmb5.13t, while new TSF fell to Rmb2.23t, both below forecasts. Thus, outstanding bank loans growth edged lower to 7.3% yoy. Nevertheless, outstanding TSF growth rose to 8.2% yoy due to increased government bond issuance. Weak domestic demand remains a key ...
The latest economic indicators indicate a tepid global trade outlook in the near term. We expect 2025 to be a volatile year for the shipping and ports sector, subject to a number of geopolitical and industry events. While many of these events point to downside risks, a potential port strike in the US, the most imminent event to watch out for, poses upside risks for the container shipping segment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. BUY OOIL, CSP and CMP. Maintain HOLD on CSH.
The latest economic indicators pointed to a weakening global trade outlook, with both China and global manufacturing PMIs standing at sub-50 levels, and their new export order sub-indices sinking deeper in the contractionary territory. Ocean freight rate futures prices have rebounded lately amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, and the US East Coast port strike, though halted for now, remains a key uncertainty. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. BUY OOIL, CSP and CMP. CSH is downgraded to HOLD.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: We expect an improving operating performance among selected companies in September, and add AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and TUL to our BUY list and add Li Auto as a SELL. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Trailing The JCI’s Strong Performance In Aug 24: Our picks are ICBP, TOWR, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Adapting To A Bipolar Market: Our Al...
1H24 core net profit of US$871m (-22% yoy, +297% hoh) is deemed a moderate miss, mainly due to higher-than-expected operating cost and lower-than-expected interest income. 1H24 has yet to benefit from the full impact of the surge in ocean freight rates, which is likely to bolster OOIL’s 2H24 earnings. Investors may accumulate OOIL on share price weaknesses to position for a stronger 2H and a good final dividend (full-year 2024 yield at 13.6%). Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$109.10.
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb9.96/Target: Rmb12.50) 1H24: Results lower than expected; striving for growth amid weak economic conditions. ENN Energy Holdings (2688 HK/HOLD/HK$53.50/Target: HK$58.40) 1H24: Below expectations; earnings dragged by sluggish new installation and absence of LNG trading gain. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$11.36/Target: HK$15.41) 1H24 Interim results remains stable yoy; retail portfolio being ...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb9.96/Target: Rmb12.50) Aier reported lower-than-expected results with revenue and adjusted net earnings up 2.9% and 1.5% yoy respectively in 1H24. Despite the weak economic conditions, Aier still achieved a 9% yoy growth in outpatient numbers, demonstrating its resilient business expansion capabilities. Striving for growth, Aier further expanded its hospital network by acquisitions. We believe the newly added hospitals will bri...
The latest economic indicators for global trade outlook weakened slightly, with both China and global manufacturing PMIs dipping mom and their new export order subindices below 50. Ocean freight rates have peaked, with freight rate futures prices having retreated in the past month amid the Gaza truce talks. Nevertheless, risk-reward for shipping companies is more favourable after the recent share price drops. Maintain MARTKET WEIGHT. OOIL and CSH (upgraded to BUY) offer FY24 yields of about 17%.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Jul 24: Our picks are BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising The M&A And Monetisation Bets: Our Alpha Picks marginally beat the KLCI. Jul 24 picks: Ekovest, Gamu...
The latest economic indicators for global trade remain mixed with some negative tilt. With the unabated Red Sea attacks, ocean freight futures prices rose further in the past weeks, reflecting the market’s expectations that upbeat freight rates may extend into 1H25. In line with the updated futures price curve, we raise earnings forecasts for our container shipping coverage by over 40% in FY24 and over 100% in FY25 (from a low base). We upgrade OOIL to BUY on its better dividend prospect (FY24 y...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Call: Adding ASMPT, Innovent, Poly Property Services, TAL Education and Trip.com to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Jun 24 And 2Q24: Our picks are BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Opting For More Adventurous Choices: Our Alpha Picks beat the KLCI again. Jul 24 picks: BURSA, Ekovest, Gamuda, Lagenda, Mah Sing, MYEG, Pekat...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Call: Adding KE Holdings and Wharf REIC to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: First Month Of Underperformance In 2024: Our picks are EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Choices For A “Summer Lull”: Our Alpha Picks trounce the KLCI again. May 24 picks: BAUTO, BURSA, Gamuda, GENM, Lagenda, Mah Sing, MYEG, PMETAL, RGB, and VSI. SINGAPORE Strategy Alpha Picks...
The latest economic indicators for global trade were still mixed but with some positive tilt. Driven by a tight capacity supply-demand balance, prices of Jun/Aug/Oct 24 futures contracts for Shanghai-Europe freight rose 24%/30%/24% from our last update, pointing to even stronger near-term earnings for container shipping. We deem the risk-reward of container shipping stocks largely balanced but think near-term market sentiments may stay strong. Upgrade OOIL to HOLD on raised earnings and dividend...
The latest economic indicators for China’s exports were still mixed, with China and global manufacturing PMIs staying above 50, but a weakened US consumer sentiment index. We think China’s potential removal of dividend tax on Hong Kong stocks bought via the Stock Connect will re-rate port stocks, but the risk-reward for shipping stocks is becoming less attractive after the recent strong share price performance. Downgrade CSH to HOLD and OOIL to SELL, and suggest switching to port plays CSP and C...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call: Adding CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou, and Tencent to our BUY list, closing out SELL calls. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Outperformance In A Bear Market: Our picks are BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, JSMR and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Well-Positioned For 1Q Results Season: Our April picks again beat the KLCI. May 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MYEG, Press Meta...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
2023 net profit of US$1.37b (-86.3% yoy) came in below our expectation at 89% of our full-year forecast. The final DPS of US$0.181 also missed our projection. After a sharp 16.7% share price drop last Friday following the results announcement, OOIL is now trading at a largely fair level, in our view. We expect a decent 1H24 performance from OOIL, backed by the elevated average freight rates in 1H24. We upgrade OOIL to HOLD, with a slightly higher target price of HK$107.70.
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