reports
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?
When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.
- Chris Hoare
EMEA & African Telcos & Towers - High Yield Review – Initiate Coverage...
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
- Chris Hoare
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14.3, +40%) Q2 24: EBITDAaL beat, some guidance upg...
Orange has reported a very solid set of results, with Telco EBITDA c+0.7% ahead of consensus. AME and Europe EBITDAaL guidance has been lifted, but Group EBITDAaL guidance has been left unchanged, as the delta in AME and Europe is not yet big enough to move the Group numbers.
- Russell Waller
Feedback from call with Orange IR on French pricing - back book increa...
We hosted a call with Orange IR to discuss the pricing environment. Watch a replay of the call HERE. We provide a summary of the call in this short piece. Interestingly, it looks as though SFR has lifted some of its back book prices for some of its customers.
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Solid top line, decent overall performan...
Q1 was a solid quarter for the Sub-Saharan African operators, especially from a top line perspective. Airtel Africa continued to outperform peers overall. We continue to think that fundamentals for AAF and MTN are strong and deserve more attention. Valuations are compelling too.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +47%) Altice France (SFR) - Most preferred Ilia...
There has been a lot of focus on the recent change in mobile price points from SFR/Bouygues. Orange has underperformed the CAC40 by c10% over the last 10 days. Most commentary we have seen, seems to worry that the move by SFR will start a new price war at the high end. We think that is probably not going to happen, and explain why in this report. That is good news for Orange, that looks oversold in our view.
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +28%) Q1 24: Good results; French KPIs not a w...
Orange has reported a solid set of results, with EBITDA c+0.4% ahead of consensus. Guidance has all been reiterated, and cost synergy numbers for Spain have been lifted (with new additional revenue synergy numbers given, that are based on intra-company churn switching data, which makes it plausible some could be delivered in our view).
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Orange Masmovil approval: A good outcome. A compliant EC? More M&A to ...
The EC has approved the Orange Masmovil merger (HERE) with remedies unchanged from the announcement in early December (HERE). We continue to be of the view that the remedy package is a good one for the operators in Spain, and indeed for the likelihood of further M&A in Europe.
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +30%) Q4 23: Good results and guidance; positi...
Orange has reported a very solid set of results, with EBITDA c1.5% ahead of consensus for Q4. France guidance for 2024 EBITDA has been lifted, and overall Group guidance is in-line at EBITDA and 3% ahead at OCF. Ex energy, Group EBITDA is growing at >4%. Comments on the call about the Digi remedy package are very positive for European in-market consolidation in our view.
- Russell Waller
- TMT Team
- Russell Waller
Remedy package signed in Spain: Not as bad as the headline would sugge...
The decision that we have all been waiting for has finally arrived. Orange Masmovil and Digi have reached an agreement for a remedy package in Spain. We provide our thoughts on the package in this piece. The headline “Digi buying spectrum” is bad, but we think that the reality and specifics of the package are nowhere near as bad as the headline would suggest.
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Decent quarter in a challenging macro en...
Q3 was a decent quarter for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators. Fundamentals remain strong. We have updated forecasts post Q3 results, and our recommendations and target prices remain unchanged, except for Safaricom. AAF remains our preferred play in Africa.
- James Ratzer
The biggest decision you haven't heard of
While the Masmovil-Orange decision is probably the biggest upcoming decision you have heard of, the biggest decision for the European telecoms industry that most people haven’t heard of, is coming up next month at the World Radio Congress : the longer-term use for the 6.4-7.1GHz band in Europe.
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14.0, +30%) Q3 23: Good delivery, EBITDA growth >3%...
Orange has reported a solid set of results, with results almost exactly in-line with consensus expectations at revenue and EBITDA. All guidance has been reiterated. In that regard, these results will not set the pulse racing but solid delivery is something we admire. Ex energy and FX, EBITDA is growing >3% y/y, which is pretty good, and means Orange is well on the way to reach medium-term EBITDA and FCF guidance as well as the nearer-term goals.
- Thomas Coudry
Feedback from RS with CFO: delivering the 2025 plan
Following the roadshow we hosted with the group's new CFO Laurent Martinez last week and our latest discussions ahead of Q3 results, we reaffirm our Buy conviction on the stock with an unchanged PT at EUR13, pointing to 18% upside. Laurent Martinez, who officially joined Orange in early September,
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
PROPRIETARY SURVEY: Spanish dynamics improving.... ...but all hinges ...
The Spanish market right now is in a period of great uncertainty, until we know the outcome of the Masmovil-Orange ruling and can gauge the impact of any remedies. To try to answer that, we recently published an in-depth note trying to recreate the EC’s analysis on GUPPI ratios, suggesting that the sale of sub-brands, most likely to Digi, should be an acceptable remedy (even if Digi is trying to ask for more), and this shouldn’t destabilise the market too much.
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