A director at Television Francaise(TF1) bought 39,000 shares at 7.182EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...
>Outperform rating reiterated - Yesterday, TF1 published Q3 results that beat expectations with EBITA of € 69m vs our forecast of € 46m and € 38m for the consensus. The main difference with our forecasts stemmed from costs which came in well below our estimate, down by around 6% but also the divestment of a brand licences. Advertising growth in TV was -4.2%, below our forecast of -3.5% The group was mainly impacted by relatively demanding base effects after +7% in Q3...
>Opinion Surperformance réitérée - TF1 a publié hier ses résultats du T3, ressortis supérieurs aux attentes avec un EBITA de 69 M€ alors que nous tablions sur 46 M€ et les consensus sur 38 M€. La principale différence avec nos attentes s’explique par les coûts qui ressortent largement inférieurs à nos attentes, en baisse d’environ 6%, mais aussi par la cession d’une licence de marque. La croissance publicitaire TV ressort à -4,2% inférieurs à nos attentes de-3,5%. Le...
The long financial duration that Cellnex enjoys implies high sensitivity of the valuation to discount rates. After a long challenging two-year period, we now see a more favourable economic environment ahead. Factors such as the potential for interest rate cuts and inflation nearing Cellnex’s sweet spot, coupled with a strong organic performance and newly implemented strategic measures—particularly deleveraging and further efficiencies on both Opex and Capex—create a positive backdrop....
The long financial duration that Cellnex enjoys implies high sensitivity of the valuation to discount rates. After a long challenging two-year period, we now see a more favourable economic environment ahead. Factors such as the potential for interest rate cuts and inflation nearing Cellnex’s sweet spot, coupled with a strong organic performance and newly implemented strategic measures—particularly deleveraging and further efficiencies on both Opex and Capex—create a positive backdrop....
>Advertising momentum somewhat lacklustre, but not collapsing - We provide an update on our Q3 expectations for TF1 and M6. We forecast a slightly more subdued advertising trend due to several factors: base effect, somewhat lacklustre demand and tough base effect (related to the rugby world cup in 2023). We therefore expect advertising growth of -1.5% for M6 and -3% for TF1 in Q3. Q4 could see a sequential improvement due to more favourable base effects; however, dem...
>Un momentum publicitaire assez atone mais qui ne s’effondre pas - Nous faisons un point sur nos attentes T3 pour TF1 et M6. Nous tablons sur une tendance publicitaire « molle » en raison de plusieurs facteurs : effet de base, demande plutôt atone et effet de base difficile (lié à la Coupe du monde rugby en 2023). Nous tablons ainsi sur une croissance publicitaire de -1,5% pour M6 et de -3% pour TF1 au T3. Il est possible que le T4 soit en amélioration séquentielle c...
>Good advertising momentum driven by the Euro - TF1 yesterday reported Q2 2024 results that came in a shade below our expectations with Q2 EBITA of € 91.5m, whereas we looked for € 105m, but practically in line with the consensus (€ 94m). The main difference with our estimates stems from programming costs that were higher than we expected (Euro 2024 and investment in the launch of TF1+). The advertising trend was robust in Q2 driven by the Euro 2024 but also thanks to...
>Une bonne dynamique publicitaire portée par l’Euro - TF1 a publié hier ses résultats du T2 2024 ressortis inférieurs à nos attentes avec un EBITA T2 de 91,5 M€ alors que nous tablions sur 105 M€ mais pratiquement en ligne avec celle du consensus (94 M€). La principale différence avec nos attentes provient des coûts de programmes ressortis supérieurs à nos attentes (Euro 2024 et investissements dans le lancement de TF1+). La tendance publicitaire a été solide au T2 ti...
>Légère baisse de nos objectifs de cours sur TF1 et M6 - Nous faisons un point sur TF1, M6 et le marché publicitaire français. Si nous tablons sur un bon T2 publicitaire, il nous semble logique d’attendre un ralentissement au T3 au regard de la situation politique en France. Il est probable que les annonceurs soient plus prudents et décalent certains de leurs investissements en attendant un peu plus de visibilité politique. Les marques évitent par ailleurs généralemen...
>Slightly downgraded target prices for TF1 and M6 - This note provides an update on TF1, M6 and the French advertising market. While we see good ad trends in Q2, a slowdown is to be expected in Q3 in light of the political situation in France. Advertisers are likely to take a more cautious stance and to defer some of their investments until there is clearer visibility on the political front. Moreover, brands tend to steer clear of electoral periods, to avoid being ass...
As part of the consolidation of the renewable energy sector, an acquisition in cash of Solaria by Endesa, at a price of € 20 (+73%) would make strategic and financial sense, without endangering balance sheet strength. It would give Endesa a new growth trajectory and allow its parent company, Enel, to benefit from Solaria’s ongoing solar energy developments in Italy and Germany. Our positive ratings are based on a speculative approach for Solaria and the resilience of the integrated bu...
Dans le cadre de la consolidation du secteur des énergies renouvelables, une acquisition en numéraire de Solaria par Endesa, à un prix estimé de 20 € (+73%), ferait sens au plan stratégique et financier, sans risque sur la solidité bilantielle. Cette opération donnerait une nouvelle trajectoire de croissance à Endesa et permettrait à sa maison mère, Enel, de bénéficier des développements solaires en cours de Solaria en Italie et en Allemagne. Nos opinions positives se fondent sur une ...
>Headed for the privatisation of France Télévisions? - Sébastien Chenu, MP and vice-president of Rassemblement National (RN), stated yesterday evening to BFM TV that the party could envisage the privatisation of public audiovisual players (i.e. France Télévisions and Radio France) if the party wins in the upcoming legislative elections (30 June and 7 July). Note that this project was already mentioned by RN during the 2022 presidential election. Arte was excluded from...
>Vers une privatisation de France Télévisions ? - Sébastien Chenu, débuté et vice-président du Rassemblement National (RN), a indiqué hier sur BFM TV, que le parti pourrait envisager une privatisation de l’audiovisuel public (et donc de France Télévisions et de Radio France) en cas de victoire aux prochaines élections législatives (30/06 et 07/07). Rappelons que ce projet avait déjà été évoqué par le RN lors de l’élection présidentielle de 2022. Arte avait alors été e...
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