Company Update | Indosat (ISAT IJ/BUY/Rp2,230/Target: Rp2,500) Upgrade Indosat to BUY from HOLD with a revised target price of Rp2,500 (previously Rp2,400) based on 4.6x 2026F EV/EBITDA, in line with its five-year historical average. The upgrade reflects a stronger-than-expected mobile ARPU recovery, supporting a more sustainable earnings trajectory. The FiberCo divestment strengthens the balance sheet, unlocks value, and creates potential for a special dividend, while the rapidly scaling, high-...
Greater China Economics | Trade Exports growth accelerated to 6.6% yoy in December (+0.7ppt mom), well above consensus, supported by strong shipments growth to Hong Kong and ASEAN, while exports growth to the US weakened further. Import growth surged to 5.7% yoy (+3.8ppt mom), beating expectations amid broad-based commodity recovery. Trade surplus widened to US$114.1b. Growths of motor vehicle, hi-tech, and mechanical & electrical exports strengthened. Overall, December’s trade data is marke...
Economics | Indonesian Consumption Accelerates, But Recovery Remains Uneven Indonesian consumer activity strengthened in late-25, driven by government spending and improved production, lifting full-year GDP growth to 5.1%. However, the recovery remains uneven, with robust spending from middle- and upper-income households contrasting with persistent weakness among the budget-conscious lower-middle class. For 2026, consumption is expected to accelerate further, supported by expansive policies. A f...
Mobile rebounded sharply after 4 quarters of declines, as the price up initiatives in 1H25 have started to flow through. To some extent though this is already reflected in consensus which expects momentum to continue into Q4, which are broadly in-line with the recalibrated guidance. YTD, XLSmart’s stock has been the outperformer and rightfully so given the anticipated synergies.
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Sector Update | Telecommunications Indonesia’s fixed-broadband market is entering a transition phase as the 1.4GHz spectrum enables low-cost FWA rollout from 2026 onwards. WIFI is positioned to scale quickly through backbone ownership and potential LINK integration, while ecosystem synergies with INET, PADA, KETR, IRSX and DOOH support rapid expansion. Tower operators may gain tenancy upside, while fixed-broadband ARPU faces pressure. Ultimately, real impact remains dependent on rollout executio...
Sector Update | Telecommunications Indonesia’s fixed-broadband market is entering a transition phase as the 1.4GHz spectrum enables low-cost FWA rollout from 2026 onwards. WIFI is positioned to scale quickly through backbone ownership and potential LINK integration, while ecosystem synergies with INET, PADA, KETR, IRSX and DOOH support rapid expansion. Tower operators may gain tenancy upside, while fixed-broadband ARPU faces pressure. Ultimately, real impact remains dependent on rollout executio...
Greater China Economics | PMI November PMI undershot expectations; manufacturing PMI was at 49.2 (+0.2pt mom) and non-manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.5 (-0.6pt mom), the first contraction in nearly three years. With the services industry index weakened to 49.5 (-0.7pt mom). PMI data confirms growth momentum is easing, so expect more supportive policies to be rolled out soon, but for economic confidence to return, we need a sustainable bottom in the real estate sector. Sector Update | Heal...
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity Industrial production growth slowed sharply to 4.9% yoy in Oct 25 (-1.6ppt mom). FAI also stayed weak, falling 1.7% yoy ytd (-1.2ppt mom), dragged by property FAI which dropped 14.5% yoy ytd. Retail sales growth edged lower to 2.9% yoy (-0.1ppt yoy). On a positive note, unemployment improved to 5.1%. Overall, the data points to a weakening growth momentum. Indonesia Company Results | XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,720/Target: Rp3,10...
Company Results | XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,720/Target: Rp3,100) We upgrade our call to BUY from HOLD with a target price of Rp3,100 based on 5.9x 2026F EV/EBITDA, up from Rp2,900 previously. EXCL posted an ARPU-led rebound with a stronger qoq revenue, margin expansion, and a narrower net loss despite higher merger one-offs. Integration costs are set to remain elevated in 4Q25 before easing in 2026. Historical ISAT data shows stronger share prices alongside post-merger EBITDA ma...
Company Results | XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,720/Target: Rp3,100) We upgrade our call to BUY from HOLD with a target price of Rp3,100 based on 5.9x 2026F EV/EBITDA, up from Rp2,900 previously. EXCL posted an ARPU-led rebound with a stronger qoq revenue, margin expansion, and a narrower net loss despite higher merger one-offs. Integration costs are set to remain elevated in 4Q25 before easing in 2026. Historical ISAT data shows stronger share prices alongside post-merger EBITDA ma...
Greater China Strategy | Small/Mid Cap Monthly – BUY JBM Healthcare On Recent Price Corrections We attribute JBM’s recent price correction to the absence of positive profit alert for 1HFY26, which disappointed the market. We believe the market overreacted, given: a) a relatively high base in 1HFY25, following a 112% EPS CAGR in 1HFY22-1HFY25; b) solid 1HFY26 performance, backed by robust volume growth of its iconic products and gross margin expansion; and c) undemanding valuations of 10.0x FY26F...
Company Update | XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (EXCL IJ/HOLD/Rp2,750/Target: Rp2,900) We maintain our HOLD call with a target price of Rp2,900 based on 5.6x 2026 EV/EBITDA. 9M25 results will likely remain a loss, but the key focus is on qoq improvement. EXCL’s operations appear to have improved after the merger, though additional impairments and integration costs are expected. A potential sale of Link Net could be a positive surprise, as EXCL’s 19% stake is valued at Rp1.3t. Link Net’s loss-making s...
Company Update | XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (EXCL IJ/HOLD/Rp2,750/Target: Rp2,900) We maintain our HOLD call with a target price of Rp2,900 based on 5.6x 2026 EV/EBITDA. 9M25 results will likely remain a loss, but the key focus is on qoq improvement. EXCL’s operations appear to have improved after the merger, though additional impairments and integration costs are expected. A potential sale of Link Net could be a positive surprise, as EXCL’s 19% stake is valued at Rp1.3t. Link Net’s loss-making s...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
Highlights • FWA expansion. The 1.4 GHz auction this 13 October targets low-cost fixed wireless access with Telkom, DSSA, and WIFI competing. • Tower upside. The 1.4 GHz rollout provides clear incremental tenancy opportunities for tower operators, potentially improving tenancy ratios.
Economics | Indonesian Consumer Activity: Assessing 3Q Slowdown And Path To 4Q Recovery Indonesian consumer activity weakened in Aug 25, with retail sales growth slowing to 3.5% yoy. This was driven by eroding purchasing power and low consumer confidence due to layoffs. The impact is evident in the pressured retail, automobile and banking sectors. Consequently, 3Q25 economic growth is projected to stagnate at 4.9-5.1%. A recovery to 5.2-5.5% is forecast for 4Q25, fuelled by accelerated governmen...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
We raise EXCL’s target price to Rp2,900 but downgrade our rating from BUY to HOLD. We expect EXCL’s EBITDA and net profit to stabilise in 2026. EXCL has been the bestperforming stock among Indonesian telecoms, up 22% ytd versus its peers TLKM (up 15%) and ISAT (down 21%).
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