reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semicap and the AI cycle: How does the HBM boom impact WFE spending?
As part of our recent series of research on the deployment of AI datacenter clusters, we published an initial view on how the AI boom would affect WFE spending. We are updating our estimates today, to account for higher HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) content than we initially expected.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 4Q23
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 212 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides:
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
TSLA TESLA INC
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
CSCO ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
MBLY ASML HOLDING NV
AMD MOBILEYE NV
AAPL ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AVGO APPLE INC.
SOH1 BROADCOM INC.
BESI SOITEC
IFX UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC.
UBER ERICSSON
ERIC.B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
ERIC-B GRABTAXI HOLDINGS PTE LTD
ERICB EU WOLFSPEED INC
0967655D GRAB HLDGS LTD
WOLF ARM HOLDINGS PLC
GRAB ARMEYSKI HLDG AD
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pelham Smithers
PSA Market Strategy: How Japan Transformed from a Bear Market to a Bul...
In our 2010 Japan Perspective, written close to the nadir of the bear market, we discussed what was wrong with Japan, but also what it was starting to do right. Fourteen years on, the Nikkei 225 - though not yet Topix - has hit a new all-time high. This report looks at how Japan built on those things that were going right, while also starting to address what else needed to be done, and looks at whether more is needed to be done if the market rally is to continue from here.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
9433 KDDI CORPORATION
6954 FANUC CORPORATION
8001 ITOCHU CORPORATION
6752 PANASONIC CORPORATION
6971 KYOCERA CORPORATION
8031 MITSUI & CO. LTD
4183 MITSUI CHEMICALS INC.
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
6701 NEC CORP.
5401 NIPPON STEEL CORP.
4063 SHIN-ETSU CHEMICAL CO LTD
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
6201 TOYOTA INDUSTRIES CORP.
7203 TOYOTA MOTOR CORP.
7270 SUBARU CORP
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
BRK.A BERKSHIRE HATH-A
APPL APPLE INC - APPL - US
9810 NIPPON STEEL TRADING CORP
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q23 – Semicap: is AI enough to offset a trailing edge pull-back...
Today, we are publishing the Semicap Equipment section of our 22nd Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 130 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. WFE spending was up 5% QoQ in 4Q23, with sustained elevated spending from Chinese customers and a recovery in DRAM. The growth outlook for 2024 is modest, with a recovery in memory and leading-edg...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
TSLA TESLA INC
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
NOAA NOKIA TRADEGATE EXCHANGE
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
MBLY ASML HOLDING NV
ERIC.B MOBILEYE NV
ERIC-B ERICSSON
ERICB EU ERICSSON LM-B SHS
- Pierre FerraguÊ
TSLA TESLA INC
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
NOAA NOKIA TRADEGATE EXCHANGE
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
MBLY ASML HOLDING NV
ERIC.B MOBILEYE NV
ERIC-B ERICSSON
ERICB EU ERICSSON LM-B SHS
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pelham Smithers
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Upgrading Mexico to Overweight Recent developments have continued to reinforce our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI). There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect more upside into the early part of 2024. Upgrading Mexico to Overweight. We are upgrading Mexico to overweight; Mexico's S&P/BMV IPC index is breaking out to all-time highs, and RS is bottoming -- add exposure. Our other country overweights include Europe, Japan, India, Poland, Greece, and Br...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 3Q23
We publish this morning our comprehensive quarterly bible: 218 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
TSLA TESLA INC
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
NOAA NOKIA TRADEGATE EXCHANGE
CSCO ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
AMD ASML HOLDING NV
AAPL ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AVGO APPLE INC.
SOH1 BROADCOM INC.
BESI SOITEC
UBER UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC.
ERIC.B ERICSSON
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
ERICB EU GRABTAXI HOLDINGS PTE LTD
0967655D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
0084207D WOLFSPEED INC
WOLF GRAB HLDGS LTD
GRAB ARM HOLDINGS PLC
ARM ARMEYSKI HLDG AD
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semicap sector initiation: Excellent fundamentals & long-term outlook,...
We initiate coverage on KLA Corporation (Buy, $730), LAM Research (Neutral, $790), and Tokyo Electron (¥22,600). We also reiterate our ratings on ASML (Neutral, €690) and AMAT (Neutral, $160). We are still very positive on the group for the long term, as we see growth in semiconductors accelerating further and clear indications that capital intensity will continue to increase, while each of the 5 top players will maintain strong market power, driven by technology differentiation and innovation....
- Pelham Smithers
VMW VMWARE INC. CLASS A
PEP PEPSICO INC.
ARM ARM CEMENT LTD
TSLA TESLA INC
PG PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY
ORCL ORACLE CORPORATION
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MCD MCDONALD'S CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
TSCON TESCO PLC
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
OCDO OCADO GROUP PLC
PGHL PROCTER & GAMBLE HEALTH
7735 SCREEN HOLDINGS CO. LTD
JE. JUST EAT PLC
6501 HITACHI LTD.
4217 HITACHI CHEMICAL COMPANY LTD.
6920 LASERTEC CORP.
6723 RENESAS ELECTRONICS CORPORATION
6701 NEC CORP.
2340 OPTO TECH CORP.
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
6857 ADVANTEST CORP.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
SNAP SNAP INC. CLASS A
SAP SAP SE
WMT WALMART INC.
SOW SOFTWARE AG
TKWY JUST EAT TAKEAWAY.COM N.V.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
UBER UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC.
9434 SOFTBANK CORP.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
1469157D AUTOSTORE
1250307D DARKTRACE LTD
1036057D GINKGO BIOWORKS INC
3IN 3I INFRASTRUCTURE PLC
QCOM/O QUALCOMM INCORPORATED
SNOW SNOWFLAKE INC. CLASS A
AI C3 AI
SHOP SHOPIFY INC. (SHOP)
ROO DELIVEROO PLC
GFS GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
TSE: 2980 SRE HOLDINGS CORP
4169 JT ENECHANGE LIMITED
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Key Supports Holding Strong In last week's Int'l Compass (Aug. 18) we discussed that, if the 10-year Treasury yield and U.S. dollar (DXY) can stay below their respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70), we remain buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US). The ACWI-US low on Aug. 18 was $93.02; as long as $93 (1+ year support) holds and the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY are below the aforementioned levels, $93 on ACWI-US is likely to low for this pullback. On the o...
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