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ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

The Capital Goods Data Miner - May 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Hexagon, Metso, Sandvik, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Joachim Gunell
  • Joachim Gunell

Storytel (Buy, TP: SEK81.00) - Upside potential to 2024 targets

Q1 saw sustained double-digit organic revenue growth, margin expansion across all P&L lines and healthy cash generation. Storytel exhibited flywheel dynamics, with solid net adds, a growing share of internal content consumption, higher engagement and retention, and improved customer acquisition efficiency. It continues to re-establish its industry-innovator perception with its popular AI VoiceSwitcher. While investors would prefer a clear main shareholder to trigger a re-rating, from an operatio...

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Swedish policy rate cut, an upgrade and a downgrade

Sweden’s Riksbank cut the policy rate this week to 3.75% (4.0%); our estimates are based on another four cuts by end-2025. During the week we upgraded Veidekke to BUY, downgraded Castellum to HOLD, and reiterated our HOLD on Kojamo and SELL on Hufvudstaden and Sagax. The average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.40% for 2024e and 4.79% for 2025e.

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Odfjell SE (Buy, TP: NOK225.00) - Bullish earnings outlook

We have raised our Chemical Tankers rate estimates on the c7% increase QOQ in Q1 and with expectations for further growth in Q2, supported by an outlook for improved chemical production and limited supply ahead. We estimate a double-digit dividend yield through 2026e despite a modest payout ratio, and believe Odfjell screens as an attractive exposure to the tanker segment at an average 2024–2025e EV/EBITDA of 3.7x, versus the broader tanker peer group at 4.5x. We reiterate our BUY, and have rais...

ABGSC Media Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Media Research
  • Derek Laliberté

Higher conviction after strong Q1

Q1 was essentially in line with our expectations and reinforced the attractive earnings outlook. BUY: Storytel remains on track and the valuation is too low.

ABGSC Media Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Media Research
  • Derek Laliberté
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf
Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Q1 reporting continues

This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Cargotec (Buy, TP: EUR88.00) - Attractively valued quality

Following a solid Q1, we have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c11% on average and target price to EUR88 (77). Our positive case elements (Handling it successfully, 21 March) have strengthened and we reiterate our BUY as value creation potential remains.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...

 PRESS RELEASE

Cargotec's interim report January–March 2024: Comparable operating pro...

Cargotec's interim report January–March 2024: Comparable operating profit margin improved in all business areas CARGOTEC CORPORATION, INTERIM REPORT JANUARY–MARCH 2024, 30 APRIL 2024 AT 9:00 AM (EEST) Cargotec's interim report January–March 2024: Comparable operating profit margin improved in all business areas Sequentially stable demand in Hiab and Kalmar, Hiab's orders amounted to EUR 386 million and Kalmar's EUR 402 millionMacGregor’s merchant and services businesses' good performance continued, challenges remain in offshore projectsHiab's comparable operating profit margin was 16.6 (1...

 PRESS RELEASE

Cargotecin osavuosikatsaus tammi–maaliskuulta 2024: Vertailukelpoinen ...

Cargotecin osavuosikatsaus tammi–maaliskuulta 2024: Vertailukelpoinen liikevoittoprosentti parani kaikilla liiketoiminta-alueilla CARGOTEC OYJ, TAMMI–MAALISKUUN 2024 OSAVUOSIKATSAUS, 30.4.2024 KLO 9.00 Cargotecin osavuosikatsaus tammi–maaliskuulta 2024: Vertailukelpoinen liikevoittoprosentti parani kaikilla liiketoiminta-alueilla Kysyntä edellisen vuosineljänneksen tasolla Hiabissa ja Kalmarissa, Hiabin saadut tilaukset olivat 386 miljoonaa euroa ja Kalmarin 402 miljoonaa euroaMacGregorin kauppalaiva- ja huoltoliiketoimintojen hyvä suoritus jatkui, haasteet offshore-projekteissa jatkuvatH...

ABGSC Media Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Media Research
  • Derek Laliberté
ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Anders Idborg
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Olof Cederholm

Service-heavy Q1 boosts margin hopes

8% better orders, very low equipm. sales and strong margin. Many moving pieces, but adj. EBIT +2-5%. We consider valuation of recovered earnings too high. SELL

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