Billerud (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - Keeping profits, avoiding capex

We believe Billerud’s announcement to pursue a more cautious investment strategy in the US could reduce its capex needs by cSEK5bn–7bn. Moreover, we believe the risk in our optimistic scenario has diminished, due to market improvements and recent price rises on key products. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK140 (130) also reflecting the balance sheet turning increasingly overcapitalised, which should raise expectations of excess-cash distribution.

Odfjell SE: 1 director

A director at Odfjell SE sold 12,300 shares at 186.780NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Orkla ASA: 1 director

A director at Orkla ASA bought 20,000 shares at 82.100NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Q1 a bit noisy but transformation on track

'24e EBIT lowered by 1%. '25e-'26e raised by 1-3%. COGS efficiencies largely achieved; Focus now on SG&A. TP raised to DKK 430 (400). BUY

FLSmidth (Buy, TP: DKK440.00) - Mixed start to the year

Following a rather mixed Q1 report, our 2024–2026e clean EPS are virtually unchanged. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK440 (400) on a slightly raised SOTP multiple approach. We like the continued earnings quality improvement and further value-creation potential through an exit from Cement.

March: Pulp shipments +8% y-o-y

Renewable Weekly – 15 May 2024

This week, we take a preliminary look at Vestas' Q2 announced order intake quarter to date.

A weak quarter for mining with poor order execution

Q1'24e: Marginally below consensus on order intake, EBIT

Estimates lowered by 1-2%. Expect guidance to be maintained. TP raised to DKK 400 (350) - BUY

The milkman delivers again

Better from both segments — capturing market share. MTM EBITDA EUR 175m — adj. EPS ~NOK 3.4. 30% discount to peers — targets point to NOK 55/sh.

Odfjell SE (Buy, TP: NOK225.00) - Bullish earnings outlook

We have raised our Chemical Tankers rate estimates on the c7% increase QOQ in Q1 and with expectations for further growth in Q2, supported by an outlook for improved chemical production and limited supply ahead. We estimate a double-digit dividend yield through 2026e despite a modest payout ratio, and believe Odfjell screens as an attractive exposure to the tanker segment at an average 2024–2025e EV/EBITDA of 3.7x, versus the broader tanker peer group at 4.5x. We reiterate our BUY, and have rais...

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK21.00) - Time to recharge

The Q1 results were above our forecasts, but cash flow was weak. We expect the key focus ahead to be the need for a new bank facility, which we are concerned could come at an increased financial cost. We have made minor estimate changes and reiterate our SELL and NOK21 target price.

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK37.00) - Higher-than-expected Q1 margins

Elopak reported strong Q1 results, with the EBITDA margin in its European operations beating our and consensus forecast. We see the potential for an increased group EBITDA margin target at the CMD in September. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 7%, and in turn our target price to NOK37 (34). At the same time, we believe margins are at the high end of normalised levels, and struggle to see material upside potential from here. Trading at a 2025e P/E of ~12x, and with limited organic top-line gr...

European margin key to reach targets

Organic growth holding up better than expected, 6% in Q1 is solid. EBITA cut 1-3%, margin shortfall in Europe is key to turn around. Operationally beating Brinks, but share lags significantly; BUY.

Renewable Weekly – 8 May 2024

This week, we look at key takeaways from GWEC's 2024 Global Wind Report.

Powering up

Q1 demonstrated strength, more favourable market dynamics. Another beat in Q2e, we are 8% ahead on adj EBIT. Multiple expansion to continue: Still ~30% upside to TP: BUY