reports
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/03/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Production rises again. Maiden reserves report. First LNG sales in Kazakhstan on track for 1H26 – YE24 2P reserves in Uzbekistan were estimated at 18.5 mmboe. 4Q24 production was 10,511 boe/d increasing to 12,019 boe/d in March to date and 12,288 boe/d over the past five days. In March, Condor signed a non-binding letter of intent outlining the basic terms and conditions for ...
RKH ROCKHOPPER EXPLORATION
CNE CAIRN ENERGY PLC
REP REPSOL SA
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
PHAR PHAROS ENERGY
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
BLOE BLOCK ENERGY
SENX SERINUS ENERGY
OKEA OKEA
RDSA ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC
WDS WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LTD
SOUC SOUTHERN ENERGY CORP
ITH ITHACA ENERGY PLC
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
PLSR PULSAR HELIUM INC.
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): FY24 results in line. Additional reserves e...
• FY24 production, YE24 reserves and YE24 net cash had been reported previously. The FY25 guidance has been re-iterated. • Production in March to date at Manora was 2.9 mbbl/d. • FID for the Wassana redevelopment is still anticipated in early 2Q25, with first oil expected in early-2027. A significant portion of the 10.6 mmbbl low-risk contingent resources at Wassana will be converted into 2P reserves upon FID. • 10 development and appraisal wells are currently planned for the Jasmine field in 2...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/03/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Reserves increase showcases FY24 drilling success – YE24 2P and 3P reserves are estimated at 13.6 mmboe and 22.3 mmboe, respectively. This represents an increase of 15% and 25%, respectively vs. YE23. Adding back FY24 production of 1.3 mmboe, the 2024 activity program has added approximately 2.8 mmboe of 2P reserves and 5.3 mmboe of 3P reserves at Tapir (overall increase ...
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Investor visit: adding depth and breadth
• Valeura hosted an investor trip to its operations in Thailand earlier this month. The visit underscored three key aspects: (1) the extensive experience of the management team, (2) the strong relationships with Thai authorities, and (3) the substantial breadth of its assets, offering more potential than previously anticipated. • Greg Kulawski, Valeura's COO, brings extensive experience to the company's shallow water operations in Thailand. His previous roles at Shell include Deputy CEO of Sakha...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 07/03/2025
GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$17 per share: Four new exploration wells at Confluencia Sur – The FY24 production had been reported previously. Gross production in Argentina is approximately 15,000 boe/d and is expected to increase to around 16,000-17,000 boe/d by the end of 2025. The acquisition of the Argentinian assets is anticipated to be completed in late 1Q25 or early 2Q25 pending the regulatory approval of the Neuquen province. While the test results at the three wells drilled at C...
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Production boost and likely reserves increa...
• Valeura has drilled three new production wells and two appraisal wells at Manora. Four of these wells are now online, boosting production from 2,144 bbl/d to 2,866 bbl/d. • The results of the A35 and A36 appraisal wells have derisked 3-5 potential future drilling targets. The associated resources were not included in the YE24 reserves estimates and are likely to be booked as reserves, extending the field's life. • The A38 well was completed with an innovative downhole autonomous inflow contro...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 14/02/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: New acreage in Austria increases prospect inventory with a focus on low risk, shallow gas - ADX’s acreage in Austria has been modified to include additional near-term, low-risk gas prospects, as well as high-impact, higher-risk opportunities. One focus of the 2025 program is to drill shallow, low-risk, high initial production gas prospects that can be rapidly put into production. ...
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): 245% Reserves Replacement Ratio. 2C Resourc...
• YE24 2P reserves were estimated at 50 mmbbl (up from 38 mmbbl at YE23). This represents a Reserves Replacement Ratio of 245%, significantly above our expectations of ~100%. • The reserves revision reflects (1) upward revision of STOIIP estimates (the high achieved recovery factors suggest that the volumes initially in place had been underestimated), (ii), positive drilling results which reflect Valeura's application of advanced drilling and completion technologies including geosteering and inf...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 10/01/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Flow rate in line with expectations at AB-1. Two more appraisal wells in January - The AB-1 (Alberta Llanos) exploration well is now on production at an oil rate of 658 bbl/d gross (329 bbl/d net) with 49% water cut from 62 feet of net pay in the Ubaque. The IP rate is in line with the expectations set out in the company’s September corporate presentation (321 bbl/d net)...
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
TRP TOWER RESOURCES PLC
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
CORO CORO ENERGY
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
KIST KISTOS PLC
PNOR PETRONOR E&P LTD
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
PLSR PULSAR HELIUM INC.
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): >US$100 mm cash build during 4Q24. All eyes...
• Record 4Q24 production was 26.1 mbbl/d, which is in line with our expectations. • Net cash at YE24 was US$259 mm, exceeding our forecasts by US$34 mm. This reflects a 0.56 mmbbl reduction in oil inventory during 4Q24 (1.2 mmbbl at the end of September versus 0.64 mmbbl at the end of December). • Valeura’s net cash balance increased by ~US$100 mm during 4Q24, representing over 18% of the company’s market cap. This highlights the company’s business model and the cash flow generating potential o...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 29/11/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of NOK51 per share: Water inflow from a small interval in Welchau deeper formation. Continuing well test up hole – Two intervals in the Steinalm formation (1452.5 m-1463.5 m and 1474.5 m-1480 m MD) were tested at a stable rate (natural flow) of 240-290 bbl/d of drilling mud, likely contaminated formation water and some oil traces. Gas was initially observed at surface. While the achieved flow rate hig...
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
TLW TULLOW OIL PLC
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
GPRK GEOPARK
RKH ROCKHOPPER EXPLORATION
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
OMV OMV AG
REP REPSOL SA
ENW ENWELL ENERGY
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
PMG PARKMEAD GROUP
ENOG ENERGEAN PLC
SENX SERINUS ENERGY
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
HBR HARBOUR ENERGY PLC
SOUC SOUTHERN ENERGY CORP
CEQ CRITERIUM ENERGY LTD.
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
BCE BEACON ENERGY PLC
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Higher flow rates than expected and potenti...
• Production at Jasmine has increased to 9,8mbbl/d over the last seven days following the drilling of five new infill wells. This is higher than we expected and represents an increase of >2 mbbl/d. • Corporate production in September and October was already at ~26.4 mbbl/d. Even after allowing for production declines, the strong production at Jasmine gives us confidence in the 4Q24 26 mbbl/d production guidance. • One of the new Jasmine wells evaluated several secondary appraisal targets, result...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/11/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well. Water disposal infrastructure operational. High net cash – The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%. The well reached TD ~ one month ago. After ~1 month of production, CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 were also producing >30% water with ~1 mbbl/d oil produ...
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
GENL GENEL ENERGY
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
MATD PETRO MATAD
NTOG NOSTRA TERRA OIL & GAS COMPANY
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
AOI AFRICA OIL CORP
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
BWE BW ENERGY
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
KIST KISTOS PLC
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): High production in 4Q24. Launching a share ...
• The 3Q24 production and cash position at the end of September had been reported previously. • Production in September and October stood at ~26.4 mbbl/d. This is very high. The company expects production to be ~26 mbbl/d over 4Q24. We only assumed 24-25 mbbl/d. • The high production combined with (1) the settlement in early October of a 0.18 mmbbl lifting sold at the end of 3Q24 and (2) above average liftings in 4Q24 suggests high cashflow and free cashflow in 4Q24. As previously reported, Vale...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/11/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.70 per share: Approvals to start well testing at Welchau received. Rig and test equipment mobilized – All necessary approvals have been received to commence flow testing operations on the Welchau-1 discovery well for the period from 30 October 2024 until 31 March 2025. A workover rig has been mobilised to the Welchau-1 drill site with flow testing due to commence during the second half of Novem...
GPRK GEOPARK
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
SEY STERLING ENERGY PLC
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
SNM SHAMARAN PETROLEUM CORP.
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
EME EMPYREAN ENERGY
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
FEC FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
KOS KOSMOS ENERGY LTD.
ORC/B ORCA EXPLORATION GROUP CL B
HBR HARBOUR ENERGY PLC
PRD PREDATOR OIL & GAS HOLDINGS PLC
PLSR CN PULSAR HELIUM INC.
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
CNECN CANACOL
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Tax restructuring adds cash flow and showca...
• Valeura has completed the restructuring of its Thailand subsidiary companies. • Valeura’s working interests in all its Thai III fiscal contracts, covering the Nong Yao, Manora and Wassana fields will now be held in a single subsidiary. This will allow Valeura to use its US$397 mm tax losses at Wassana against the profits at Nong Yao and Manora. • The amount of tax losses is higher than we anticipated (~US$350 mm). Under our Brent price assumptions (US$70/bbl from 4Q25), we estimate that Valeur...
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Another strong quarter
• 3Q24 production was 22.2 mbbl/d. This is well above our conservative forecast of 20.4 mbbl/d that incorporated more provisions for downtime and steeper declines. All the assets appear to be performing very well. • Production in September was 26.4 mbbl/d. This is above the already high rate of 26.2 mbbl/d announced at the end of August. • Valeura held US$156 mm in cash at the end of September. This was very close to our forecast of US$162 mm. However, the 3Q24 revenue and cash position at the e...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 30/08/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price £0.70 per share: Key horizontal wells outperforms expectations – Arrow has now drilled 3 horizontal wells in Carrizales Norte. The flow rates of the wells are exceeding our expectations. The first CN horizontal well (CNB HZ-1) is being restricted to a current oil flow rate of 2,090 bbl/d with approximately 41% water cut. The average oil production for the first 60 days of production was 2,37...
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Production guidance re-iterated but lower c...
High production • Net production at Nong Yao has reached a stable level of ~12.1 mbbl/d. This compares with 6.3 mbbl/d in 2Q24. • This production, when combined with the Wassana field being back online, has resulted in stable aggregate WI oil production over the past week of 26.2 mbbl/d. We are assuming only 20.4 mbbl/d for 3Q24, which might be too conservative. • Valeura plans to maintain production at ~25 mbbl/d for at least the next four months. We are forecasting 24.8 mbbl/d production in 4Q...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/08/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: New drilling expected to start in September – A drilling rig is scheduled to be mobilized to site in August. The two-well infill program, targeting a previously undrilled section of the MGH Field, is anticipated to commence in early September with the wells expected to come on production in early November at a forecasted combined rate of 300 bbl/d. While this is a bit later tha...
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
GPRK GEOPARK
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
AOI AFRICA OIL CORP
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
SENX SERINUS ENERGY
I3E I3 ENERGY
CEQ CRITERIUM ENERGY LTD.
PLSR CN PULSAR HELIUM INC.
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