reports
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 15/11/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: 1.9 mbbl/d at latest CN well. Water disposal infrastructure operational. High net cash – The fifth horizontal well at Carrizales Norte (CNB HZ-6) is producing 1.9 mbbl/d of oil (0.95 mbbl/d net to Arrow) with a water cut of 31%. The well reached TD ~ one month ago. After ~1 month of production, CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 were also producing >30% water with ~1 mbbl/d oil produ...
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
GENL GENEL ENERGY
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
MATD PETRO MATAD
NTOG NOSTRA TERRA OIL & GAS COMPANY
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
AOI AFRICA OIL CORP
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
BWE BW ENERGY
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
KIST KISTOS PLC
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
CDR CONDOR ENERGIES INC
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): High production in 4Q24. Launching a share ...
• The 3Q24 production and cash position at the end of September had been reported previously. • Production in September and October stood at ~26.4 mbbl/d. This is very high. The company expects production to be ~26 mbbl/d over 4Q24. We only assumed 24-25 mbbl/d. • The high production combined with (1) the settlement in early October of a 0.18 mmbbl lifting sold at the end of 3Q24 and (2) above average liftings in 4Q24 suggests high cashflow and free cashflow in 4Q24. As previously reported, Vale...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 01/11/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.70 per share: Approvals to start well testing at Welchau received. Rig and test equipment mobilized – All necessary approvals have been received to commence flow testing operations on the Welchau-1 discovery well for the period from 30 October 2024 until 31 March 2025. A workover rig has been mobilised to the Welchau-1 drill site with flow testing due to commence during the second half of Novem...
GPRK GEOPARK
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
SEY STERLING ENERGY PLC
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
SNM SHAMARAN PETROLEUM CORP.
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
EME EMPYREAN ENERGY
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
FEC FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
KOS KOSMOS ENERGY LTD.
ORC/B ORCA EXPLORATION GROUP CL B
HBR HARBOUR ENERGY PLC
PRD PREDATOR OIL & GAS HOLDINGS PLC
PLSR CN PULSAR HELIUM INC.
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
CNECN CANACOL
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Tax restructuring adds cash flow and showca...
• Valeura has completed the restructuring of its Thailand subsidiary companies. • Valeura’s working interests in all its Thai III fiscal contracts, covering the Nong Yao, Manora and Wassana fields will now be held in a single subsidiary. This will allow Valeura to use its US$397 mm tax losses at Wassana against the profits at Nong Yao and Manora. • The amount of tax losses is higher than we anticipated (~US$350 mm). Under our Brent price assumptions (US$70/bbl from 4Q25), we estimate that Valeur...
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Another strong quarter
• 3Q24 production was 22.2 mbbl/d. This is well above our conservative forecast of 20.4 mbbl/d that incorporated more provisions for downtime and steeper declines. All the assets appear to be performing very well. • Production in September was 26.4 mbbl/d. This is above the already high rate of 26.2 mbbl/d announced at the end of August. • Valeura held US$156 mm in cash at the end of September. This was very close to our forecast of US$162 mm. However, the 3Q24 revenue and cash position at the e...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 30/08/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price £0.70 per share: Key horizontal wells outperforms expectations – Arrow has now drilled 3 horizontal wells in Carrizales Norte. The flow rates of the wells are exceeding our expectations. The first CN horizontal well (CNB HZ-1) is being restricted to a current oil flow rate of 2,090 bbl/d with approximately 41% water cut. The average oil production for the first 60 days of production was 2,37...
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Production guidance re-iterated but lower c...
High production • Net production at Nong Yao has reached a stable level of ~12.1 mbbl/d. This compares with 6.3 mbbl/d in 2Q24. • This production, when combined with the Wassana field being back online, has resulted in stable aggregate WI oil production over the past week of 26.2 mbbl/d. We are assuming only 20.4 mbbl/d for 3Q24, which might be too conservative. • Valeura plans to maintain production at ~25 mbbl/d for at least the next four months. We are forecasting 24.8 mbbl/d production in 4Q...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 16/08/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price C$0.35 per share: New drilling expected to start in September – A drilling rig is scheduled to be mobilized to site in August. The two-well infill program, targeting a previously undrilled section of the MGH Field, is anticipated to commence in early September with the wells expected to come on production in early November at a forecasted combined rate of 300 bbl/d. While this is a bit later tha...
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
GPRK GEOPARK
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
AOI AFRICA OIL CORP
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
SENX SERINUS ENERGY
I3E I3 ENERGY
CEQ CRITERIUM ENERGY LTD.
PLSR CN PULSAR HELIUM INC.
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 09/08/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price NOK52 per share: All eyes on EG – 1H24 production was 9,168 bbl/d. EG and Gabon production had already been disclosed. 1H24 production in Tunisia was 1,670 bbl/d (we forecasted 1,760 bbl/d) given subdued activities. In EG, the first infill well encountered the primary and secondary reservoirs in line with expectations. Production is expected to begin early September. The second infill well is expec...
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
BLVN BOWLEVEN PLC
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
CNE. CANACOL ENERGY LTD
GENL GENEL ENERGY
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
SAVE SAVANNAH ENERGY
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
FEC FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
KOS KOSMOS ENERGY LTD.
ORC/B ORCA EXPLORATION GROUP CL B
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
HBR HARBOUR ENERGY PLC
PXOG PROSPEX OIL & GAS
PRD PREDATOR OIL & GAS HOLDINGS PLC
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Production guidance re-iterated but lower c...
• The 2Q24 production and the cash position at the end of June had previously been reported. • Development drilling at Nong Yao C has been completed with the 6 development wells encountering the reservoirs in line with expectations. One appraisal well was successful and will be converted into a seventh production well. First production is expected later in August. Two of the development wells also encountered appraisal target; which could derisks potential future infill drilling and add some res...
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Wassana production restart
• Through advanced underwater inspection, including magnetic particle inspection, Valeura has concluded that the observed anomaly (a crack within a weld) on the Wassana MOPU is superficial, and accordingly does not constitute a risk to the structural integrity of the facility. • Valeura has begun the process of restarting production operations and anticipates achieving pre-suspension oil production rates of ~5,000 bbl/d within a week. • Valeura is looking to accelerate the redevelopment of the ...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 02/08/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target of A$0.75 per share: Reflections on Welchau – IIndependent consultants have calculated that each of the three reservoirs encountered at Welchau (Reifling - 128 metres, Steinalm -118 metres and the Guttenstein - 111 metres) are hydrocarbon bearing with uncertainty on the hydrocarbon type. Laboratory work on the Steinalm reservoir has confirmed the full properties ofthe 43° API light sweet oil that was recove...
RDSA ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC CLASS A
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
OMV OMV AG
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
XOM EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION
BP. BP P.L.C.
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
TRIN TRINITY CAPITAL INC
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
BWEFF BW ENERGY LTD
TCF TRILLION ENERGY INTERNATIONAL INC
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 12/07/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ PetroTal (PTAL LN/CN)C; Target price of £1.50 per share: Unrestricted cash position increased by >30% during the last quarter – 2Q24 production of 18,290 bbl/d was very near our forecasts of 18.5 mbbl/d but marginally below the company target of ~19 mbbl/d. A brief river blockade impacted production but production in June was 20,555 bbl/d. All regulatory approvals for the pilot to sell 100 mbbl of production through Ecuador have now be...
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
ENI ENI S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
OKEA OKEA
TAO TAG OIL LTD
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
PNOR PETRONOR E&P LTD
SEY AFENTRA (PREVIOUSLY
PLSR CN STERLING ENERGY)
J4V PULSAR HELIUM INC.
VAR ENERGI ASA
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Operational blip offers an opportunity for ...
• • 2Q24 production was 21.1 mbbl/d, which was very close to our expectations (21.3 mbbl/d). • Production is expected to increase in 3Q24 with the start-up of production at Nong Yao C. Half of the planned drilling targets have already been drilled. • At Wassana, the crack within a weld on one of MOPU’s three steel legs may be superficial and therefore may not indicate a risk to the structural integrity of the MOPU. If the upcoming underwater inspection confirms this view, production could restar...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/06/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C: target price of £0.50 per share: Key step towards developing future gas to industry business onshore Morocco – Chariot has signed Heads of Terms with Vivo Energy for the future offtake from the Loukos onshore licence where natural gas has been encountered at Dartois. Up to 3 mmcf/d would be initially sold to the CNG midstream business under a long-term gas sales agreement. Vivo intends to design, fund, construct and...
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
ENI ENI S.P.A.
AOI. AFRICA OIL
ENW ENWELL ENERGY
CHAR CHARIOT OIL & GAS
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
MATD PETRO MATAD
MAY MELBANA ENERGY LIMITED
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
LBE LONGBOAT ENERGY PLC
CEQ CRITERIUM ENERGY LTD.
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
BCE BEACON ENERGY PLC
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Operational blip offers an opportunity for ...
• Production at Wassana has been suspended following the discovery of a crack within one of the MOPU’s steel jack-up legs that could pose a risk to the structural integrity of the MOPU. • The company is conducting further inspections and analysis to plan next steps. Further visibility is expected in the coming weeks. • Pending further details, we are assuming no production at Wassana during 2H24 (~4 mbbl/d previously). • We are also reducing our opex forecast for 2H24 by US$12 mm (50% of US$24 m...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 31/05/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/AXL CN)C; target price of £0.65 per share: All eyes on the first horizontal well at Carrizales Norte – The 1Q24 production of 2,730 boe/d was close to our expectations. Arrow’s cash position of US$11.6 mm was also in line. The first water disposal well at RCE is being brought into production and the conversion of the CN-4 well is currently waiting regulatory approval. These two disposal wells are very importa...
AKRBP AKER BP ASA
MRO MARATHON OIL CORPORATION
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
CHAR CHARIOT OIL & GAS
ENQ ENQUEST PLC
NOG NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
PHAR PHAROS ENERGY
MAHA A MAHA ENERGY
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
SOUC SOUTHERN ENERGY CORP
LBE LONGBOAT ENERGY PLC
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
LNGE LNG ENERGY GROUP CORP.
IAECN ITHACA ENERGY
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Drilling success likely to add further reso...
• Two wells recently drilled at Nong Yao are likely to add some reserves. • The 37H development well has been put on production from the primary reservoir at an initial flow rate of ~500 bbl/d net to Valeura’s WI. The well has also encountered 68 feet of net oil pay across eight separate appraisal target intervals. The volumes associated with these zones were not included in either the reserves or contingent resources categories and will now be further evaluated as targets for potential future ...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 10/05/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ GeoPark (GPRK US)C; target price of US$26 per share: More favourable offtake contract in Colombia – GeoPark has signe da new offtake contract with Vitol for a minimum of 20 mbbl/d. The agreement improves GeoPark’s price realizations by US$0.15/bbl vs the current agreement. As part of this transaction, GeoPark will obtain immediate access to committed funding from Vitol for up to US$300 mm, with an option to increase by another US$200 m...
GPRK GEOPARK
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
A2PAZ7 TETHYS PETROLEUM
GENL GENEL ENERGY
ENI ENI S.P.A.
PXT PAREX RESOURCES INC.
ALVOF ALVOPETRO ENERGY LTD
SNM SHAMARAN PETROLEUM CORP.
VLE VALEURA ENERGY INC.
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
FEC FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
BP. BP P.L.C.
DGOC DIVERSIFIED GAS & OIL
CNE CANACOL ENERGY LTD
KOS KOSMOS ENERGY LTD.
TAL PETROTAL (TAL)
HBR HARBOUR ENERGY PLC
PLSR CN PULSAR HELIUM INC.
- Stephane Foucaud
Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Financials in line. Operations on track.
• The 1Q24 production of 21.9 mbbl/d and cash position of ~US$194 mm at the end of March had been reported previously. • Operations are on track. Drilling is underway at the Nong Yao A platform, with two new wells that are expected to be completed in the coming week. • Drilling at the Nong Yao C development is expected to result in first oil in 3Q24 to boost production from the area to 11 mbbl/d, and later in the year there will be a 5-well infill drilling programme on Jasmine/Ban Yen, also int...
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