AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.90 per share: Imminent flow rate results for first horizontal well. LNG facility construction 90% complete. – 3Q25 production averaged 9,978 mboe/d, broadly in line with expectations. In Uzbekistan, drilling of a 1,000‑meter lateral section at the first horizontal well is underway, with numerous mud gas shows recorded. The lateral may be extended, and the well is expected to be brought ons...
• The 3Q25 production and cash position at the end of September had been previously disclosed. • November production to date has averaged 24,537 bbl/d, exceeding the 3Q25 average of ~23 mbbl/d. • The FY25 production guidance of 23-25.5 mbbl/d has been re-iterated. • Valeura has completed a scheduled underwater survey of the sub-sea structural components. No anomalies were identified, reaffirming the facility’s integrity. Following redevelopment, production is expected to reach ~10 mbbl/d in 2H27...
• TransAtantic Petroleum is acquiring 50% WI in the West Thrace Production and Exploration Licences, currently held 63% by Valeura and 37% by Pinnacle. In exchange, TransAtlantic will fund the re-entry of the Devepinar-1 well—including hydraulic stimulation and testing of the Kesan zones (4.7–4.8 km depth)—for up to US$2 mm. Operations could commence in 4Q25. • TransAtlantic has the option to acquire 50% of Valeura’s 100% WI in the Banarli exploration licence, contingent on drilling a deep appra...
Please click here to access the financial metrics for Auctus' coverage universe AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Serica Energy (SQZ LN)C; Target price of £3.05 per share: Another operational setback at Triton; value and distribution profile intact – Operational issues with the flare system at the Triton FPSO have resulted in a temporary suspension of production. Production is likely to restart shortly at very low rates until the root cause is identified and resolved...
• 3Q25 production averaged ~23 mbbl/d (above 2Q25 production of 21.4 mbbl/d), exiting the quarter at 24.8 mbbl/d. • Ten wells were drilled at Nong Yao, of which seven are now producing. Field output has increased from ~8 mbbl/d to ~11.6 mbbl/d as of end-September. • Several wells indicate potential reserves upside. At Nong Yao A, the lateral extent of the H2.0 sand encountered in well NYA-40H exceeded expectations. Additional bypassed oil was identified in the shallower H2.5 and H3.0 zones. • A...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: High production at Z&G. Low risk exploration drilling in Austria to start in 4Q25/1Q26 – 2Q25 net production of 303 boe/d was higher than our expectations of ~270 boe/d following a 5 well intervention programme at the Zisterdorf and Gaiselberg fields in the Vienna Basin. The programme included (1) repair of subsurface equipment, (2) clean out of a down hole sand control (3) perfor...
• 2Q25 production of 23.15 mbbl/d and net cash of US$242 mm at the end of June have been previously disclosed. • Valeura’s average production over the first five days of August has increased to 23,150 bbl/d. The company has re-iterated its FY25 guidance including 23-25.5 mbbl/d for production. • With no further corporate tax payable in Thailand for the remainder of 2025, we forecast YE25 net cash to rise to US$310 mm—equivalent to ~45% of the current market cap. The shares continue to offer dee...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; Target price of A$0.30 per share: Operating update – Net production in Austria was 303 boe/d. The company held A$4.8 mm in cash at the end of June. Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; Target price of C$0.35 per share: Successful flow test at North-MGH boosts expected 2H26 gas production to 7-10 mmcf/d – The MGH-20 well in the North Mengoepeh (MGH) field tested 2.8 mmcf/d with associated oil. This is a positive surprise a...
• Valeura is acquiring from PTTEP 40% WI in Blocks G1/65 and G3/65 with a combined area of 20,134 km2 and bordering some of the largest gas fields in Thailand (Erawan and Bongkot). The blocks have multiple gas discoveries that could be developed shortly as tie backs to existing infrastructure—positioning Valeura to potentially book its first gas reserves in the near term. Both licences offer oil potential adjacent to Valeura’s current production. • Located immediately south of the Rossukon oil ...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ New Zealand Energy (NZ CN)C: Equity raise – New Zealand will raise up to C$3 mm of new equity at a price of C$0.18 per share. This includes the settlement of outstanding loans of C$0.3 mm through the issue of ~1.7 mm shares. Valeura Energy (VLE CN)C; Target price of C$12.70 per share: Another strong quarter. FY25 guidance re-iterated – 2Q25 production was 21.4 mbbl/d, which is very close to our forecast (~22 mbbl/d). The company repor...
• 2Q25 production was 21.4 mbbl/d, which is very close to our forecast (~22 mbbl/d). • The company reported a net cash position of US$241.9 mm at end-June, significantly above our expected US$210 mm. This reflects both the timing of capital expenditures across 2025 and continued strong operating performance. • Despite a high oil inventory level of 0.93 mmbbl at end-June (vs. 0.89 mmbbl at end-March), the free cash flow was ahead of our expectations. For reference, YE24 inventory stood at 0.64 m...
Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Gearing-up for acquisitions? – 1Q25 production was 4,085 boe/d with no horizontal wells drilled in the period. RCE is more mature than CN and while no drilling has taken place at RCE, the decline rate between 4Q24 and 1Q25 was only ~5%. 1Q25 Production was constrained by increased water production preventing the company increasing the speed of the pumps at some of its producing wells. The increased amount of produced water increase...
• Valeura has completed an 8 well drilling programme on Block B5/27. • Two wells at Jasmine C encountered more oil pay than expected. • Two development wells at Ban Yen A are now on production and appraised new reservoirs, adding drilling locations and will likely contribute to reserves when next evaluated at year-end. One of the wells (BYA-35ST1) encountered an oil pay 100% larger than expected. The third well was an appraisal well. It encountered an oil-water contact deeper than expected but t...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Chariot (CHAR LN)C: Recovering 75% WI of licences in Morocco – Energean has returned its Moroccan offshore interests to Chariot. As a result, Chariot now holds 75% in the Lixus Offshore and Rissana Offshore licences. Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.90 per share: Acquiring a LNG facility for Kazakhstan to deliver first LNG sale in 2Q26 – 1Q25 production in Uzbekistan was 11,179 boe/d (+6% vs. production in 4Q24). Condor ...
• The 1Q25 production and cash position at the end of March were in line with previous indications. However the adjusted working capital was ~US$15 mm higher than cash given an oil inventory increase of 0.89 mmbbl. • Valeura has taken FID at Wassana (G10/48 licence), resulting in the conversion of 8.6 mmbbl 2C contingent resources into 2P reserves. Wassana’s 2P reserves now stand at 20.5 mmbbl, with the field expected to produce 10 mbbl/d in 2H27, representing almost 45% of FY24 production. • T...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/ CN)C; Target price of £0.70 per share: Stable production, 10% cash increase – Net production is currently exceeding 4.5 mboe/d, consistent with January levels. The CN HZ10 well, located in the northern area of the CN field, commenced production on 31 March, delivering 1,183 bbl/d of oil (591 bbl/d net to Arrow) with a 21% water cut from the Ubaque reservoir. The well is in the process of cleaning up, with the water cut gradually decreasing. The CN ...
• 1Q25 production averaged 23.9 mboe/d, which is in line with previous indications. This included a planned seven-day annual maintenance shutdown at the Nong Yao field near the end of the quarter. Production resumed on 1 April. • Valeura has re-iterated its FY25 production guidance of 23-25.5 mbbl/d. • FID for the Wassana redevelopment is still anticipated in 2Q25, with first oil expected in early-2027, though the company has indicated that it will "review and optimise its expenditures" given th...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Production rises again. Maiden reserves report. First LNG sales in Kazakhstan on track for 1H26 – YE24 2P reserves in Uzbekistan were estimated at 18.5 mmboe. 4Q24 production was 10,511 boe/d increasing to 12,019 boe/d in March to date and 12,288 boe/d over the past five days. In March, Condor signed a non-binding letter of intent outlining the basic terms and conditions for ...
• FY24 production, YE24 reserves and YE24 net cash had been reported previously. The FY25 guidance has been re-iterated. • Production in March to date at Manora was 2.9 mbbl/d. • FID for the Wassana redevelopment is still anticipated in early 2Q25, with first oil expected in early-2027. A significant portion of the 10.6 mmbbl low-risk contingent resources at Wassana will be converted into 2P reserves upon FID. • 10 development and appraisal wells are currently planned for the Jasmine field in 2...
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Arrow Exploration (AXL LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Reserves increase showcases FY24 drilling success – YE24 2P and 3P reserves are estimated at 13.6 mmboe and 22.3 mmboe, respectively. This represents an increase of 15% and 25%, respectively vs. YE23. Adding back FY24 production of 1.3 mmboe, the 2024 activity program has added approximately 2.8 mmboe of 2P reserves and 5.3 mmboe of 3P reserves at Tapir (overall increase ...
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