Feature article: 2022 Pharma Statistics - 8.7% growth – but worrying signs An efficient reporting system has seen all the listed multinational pharmaceutical companies announcing results for 2022, which has given us the opportunity to update our industry statistics and drug database. This report provides the first snapshot of the global and US rankings of the top 20 drug companies for 2022. 2022 was characterised by 8.7% underlying growth, offset by a large forex impact (-12%), due to USD stren...
Our recent notes explored why investor concerns over the whole Chinese market appeared overdone. With the recent rise in these markets, it appears that these disquiets have moderated. Accordingly, in this note, we consider why investors, having decided that they like China, would choose FCSS as their investment vehicle. We note that i) it has delivered superior returns, ii) Fidelity’s processes and infrastructure are the drivers to this outperformance, iii) it is a large, liquid closed-ended veh...
Feature article: Higher interest rates overshadow IIC/REIF prospects We focus on the nine quoted infrastructure investment companies (IICs) and on the 22 renewable energy infrastructure funds (REIFs), most of which saw their share prices fall during 2022, while the FTSE 100 rose by just 0.9%. In our ‘Quoted UK Infrastructure and Renewable Energy – Prospects for 2023’ publication, we have addressed the three key issues of recent months – higher inflation, extremely volatile power prices and risin...
Feature article: Asset manager valuations Asset managers had a poor 2022: the S&P Composite 1500 Asset Management Index was down 22% and, according to the Investment Company Institute (ICI), worldwide mutual funds fell by 20%, from $76tr to $60tr. When bond and equity markets fall, the results are unlikely to be pretty: with revenues trending down and multiples contracting, there is a double whammy to contend with. So how do valuations shape up now, after a bullish start to the new year?
Feature article: Hardman & Co Healthcare Index - Review of 2022 The main function of the HHI is to monitor the performance, and to highlight the attractiveness, of life sciences investments over the long term, and to try to identify those stocks that have disruptive technologies that consistently allow them to outperform both the index and the markets. Many of the 53 constituents of the index are high-risk, still being in the development stage, with micro-capitalisations and a long way from sal...
A collation of recent insights on markets and economies taken from the comments made by chairs and investment managers of investment companies – have a read and make your own minds up. Please remember that nothing in this note is designed to encourage you to buy or sell any of the companies mentioned.
A collation of recent insights on markets and economies taken from the comments made by chairs and investment managers of investment companies – have a read and make your own minds up. Please remember that nothing in this note is designed to encourage you to buy or sell any of the companies mentioned.
In this note, we give our view on Chinese government policies, putting into perspective their objectives, the potential risks and upsides, and how fundamentals and sentiment may be affected. We note both negative and positive market reactions to recent events. We also update investors on themes in recent notes, including i) economic forecasts (still showing to be well above developed economies’ growth and resilience), ii) regulatory risk (on hold for a while), and iii) the geopolitical environme...
Feature article: A different kind of beat: Boyzone, 1996 Quoted company engagement with retail investors – a new world This month's feature article has been written in collaboration with The Quoted Companies Alliance. Introduction: Retail investors used to be the second-class citizens of the stock market. The bulk of their money was held in funds or pension schemes where a professional took all the decisions and where they owned only a tiny part of the equity market directly. They also tended ...
Feature article: A glass half-empty view of markets - The 20s harder than the last decade This month’s feature article is written by Steve Clapham, who gives his view on the outlook for markets. He sets out one side of the current debate in markets. Steve is admirably experienced to express an opinion. Steve is the founder of Behind the Balance Sheet, an investor training consultancy. He qualified as a chartered accountant before moving into investment banking as an analyst in the 1980s. In ...
In this note, we review China’s economic outlook and, in particular, we put the well-publicised COVID-19-related lockdowns into a relative global perspective. The IMF’s July forecast saw China’s real GDP forecasts cut by 1.1% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023. With further lockdowns since, there is risk on the downside. However, the 2023 GDP cuts were a fifth of those seen in the US/Euro area, China’s 2023 forecast growth is ca.4x their level, and market ratings are below both. Also, investors should con...
Feature article: Macro issues dominate investor sentiment - Some basics for investors The big topics in the investment world at the moment seem to be macroeconomic. With that in mind, we thought it would be useful to revisit some of the basics of the terms being used in the current environment, and to remind investors of the things to look out for (indeed, many younger investors may not have come across some of these influences in their investing lifetime): • Recession does not affect ...
Feature article: Utility regulation – Changes afoot - Patching up a tainted model While the gas supply crisis – and its price implications – have dominated the UK price regulated sectors in recent months, other issues have arisen that have seriously tainted the price regulation system itself. Indeed, it is fair to ask whether it is ‘’fit for purpose’’. Back in 1984, price regulation, via an unsophisticated RPI-x formula, was introduced to prevent the privatised British Telecom (BT) from abusin...
In this note, we explore what investors could ask the FCSS board at the forthcoming AGM, and we provide the answers we would give if asked those questions ourselves. We note three key themes: i) COVID-19; ii) regulation; and iii) geopolitical tension. All were explored in detail in our initiation. While China managed the initial stages of COVID-19 well, its recent lockdowns have raised concerns about growth. Understanding why regulations were introduced means investors can identify companies at ...
In terms of environmental policy, the quest to cut carbon emissions dramatically and to achieve net zero remains high on the political agenda, although the war in Ukraine – and specifically the issue of gas supplies – may weaken these commitments. In any event, the environmental performance of China and the US – responsible, between them, for around one half of global emissions – will be key. In Asia, where ca.85% of energy consumption is currently being met by fossil fuels – there are ca.4.6b...
Feature article: Latest ONS survey: steady as she goes…and ignore retail investors at your peril The ONS (Office for National Statistics) has been charting the beneficial ownership of UK-quoted companies periodically since the early 1960s. The latest paper was published in March 2022, and considers the data for December 2020. At December 2020, “Rest of the World” investors owned 56.3% of the market, a further growth since the last survey, while UK institutions’ ownership edged up to 31.6%. Re...
An efficient reporting system has seen all the listed multinational pharmaceutical companies announcing results for 2021, which has given us the opportunity to update our industry statistics and drug database. This report provides the first snapshot of the global and US rankings of the top 20 drug companies for 2021. Comparisons are made with historical data to show how different company strategies have evolved. 2021 was characterised by a strong rebound in performance following the pandemic-aff...
Hardman & Co Research Hardman & Co Research : Fidelity China Special Situations Plc (FCSS): The time to 'be greedy when others are fearful'? 18-March-2022 / 11:10 GMT/BST Hardman & Co Research Fidelity China Special Situations Plc: The time to "be greedy when others are fearful"? One of Warren Buffett's more famous quotes is to "be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful". In this note, we explore what is making some investors fearful of China, identifying three key risks: i) regulation; ii) geopolitical tension; and iii) COVID-19. All three were ...
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