reports
- Filipe Botelho
- Josseline Jenssen
- Lorena Reich
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Millicom (Buy, TP: $46, +31%) On a path to $1bn EFCF. Upgrade target ...
Following our day spent with Millicom in Miami and Q1 results we review our model. Assuming the Colombian deal closes we now see the company on a path to $1bn EFCF once synergies are delivered. Dividends are likely to rise to over $4/share, driving the shares towards $50. We remain Buyers and upgrade our price target to US$46.
- Filipe Botelho
- Josseline Jenssen
- Lorena Reich
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: YPF, Falabella, Geopark, Canacol, Cencosud, TGS, Millicom, Klabin, C&W Communications, Movida, GOL, Orbia, Minerva, Suzano, Rumo, Investment Energy Resources, Simpar, Ultrapar
CENCOSUD CENCOSUD S.A.
4FZ ORBIA ADVANCE CORP. SAB DE CV
FALABELLA FALABELLA S.A.
TGSU2 TRANSPORTADORA DE GAS DEL SUR SA CLASS B
YPFD YPF SA CLASS D
TIGO SDB MILLICOM INTERNATIONAL CELLULAR SA SWEDISH DEPOSITORY RECEIPT
UGPA3 ULTRAPAR PARTICIPACOES S.A.
RAIL3 RUMO SA
KLBN3 KLABIN SA
SUZANO SUZANO
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos Capex in steep decline; underpins EFCF growth
We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.
- Felix Fischer
PBR.N PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S/A ADS
MELI MERCADOLIBRE INC.
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
GPRK GEOPARK
ARCO ARCOS DORADOS HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
ACD ADECOAGRO S.A.
CENCOSUD CENCOSUD S.A.
AZTECA.CPO TV AZTECA S.A. DE C.V. CPO
VCM.B VOLCAN COMPANIA MINERA S.A.A. CLASS B
4FZ ORBIA ADVANCE CORP. SAB DE CV
PAMP PAMPA ENERGIA SA
MINSURI1 MINSUR S.A.
TGSU2 TRANSPORTADORA DE GAS DEL SUR SA CLASS B
YPFD YPF SA CLASS D
KUOB GRUPO KUO S.A.B.
ECOPETROL ECOPETROL SA
AEROMEX GRUPO AEROMEXICO
PFAVH AVIANCA HOLDINGS SA PFD
INRETC1 INRETAIL PERU
AESGENER AES GENER S.A.
TIGO SDB MILLICOM INTERNATIONAL CELLULAR SA SWEDISH DEPOSITORY RECEIPT
NEMAKA NEMAK S.A.B. DE C.V.
CEXA CEMEX SAB DE CV (ADR)
TUPY3 TUPY S/A ORD
UGPA3 ULTRAPAR PARTICIPACOES S.A.
USIM5 USINAS SIDERURGICAS DE MINAS GERAIS PREF A
NATU3 NATURA & CO HOLDING SA
LTM LATAM AIRLINES GROUP SA
FEC FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
NEXA NEXA RESOURCES S.A.
RAIL3 RUMO SA
CSNA3 COMPANHIA SIDERURGICA NACIONAL
VALE3 VALE S.A.
KLBN3 KLABIN SA
AMBP3 AMBIPAR PARTICIPACOES E EMPREEN
- Felix Fischer
Latam Trade Book - 14 April 2025 - Lucror Analytics
In the latest edition of our LatAm Trade Book, we review most of our current trade recommendations. We also discuss key metrics of the issuers and how the bonds fare relative to peers. Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our LatAm coverage.
PBR.N PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S/A ADS
MELI MERCADOLIBRE INC.
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
GPRK GEOPARK
ARCO ARCOS DORADOS HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
ACD ADECOAGRO S.A.
CENCOSUD CENCOSUD S.A.
AZTECA.CPO TV AZTECA S.A. DE C.V. CPO
VCM.B VOLCAN COMPANIA MINERA S.A.A. CLASS B
4FZ ORBIA ADVANCE CORP. SAB DE CV
PAMP PAMPA ENERGIA SA
ALSEA ALSEA S.A.B. DE C.V.
MINSURI1 MINSUR S.A.
FALABELLA FALABELLA S.A.
TGSU2 TRANSPORTADORA DE GAS DEL SUR SA CLASS B
YPFD YPF SA CLASS D
KUOB GRUPO KUO S.A.B.
ECOPETROL ECOPETROL SA
AEROMEX GRUPO AEROMEXICO
PFAVH AVIANCA HOLDINGS SA PFD
INRETC1 INRETAIL PERU
AESGENER AES GENER S.A.
TIGO SDB MILLICOM INTERNATIONAL CELLULAR SA SWEDISH DEPOSITORY RECEIPT
NEMAKA NEMAK S.A.B. DE C.V.
CEXA CEMEX SAB DE CV (ADR)
TUPY3 TUPY S/A ORD
UGPA3 ULTRAPAR PARTICIPACOES S.A.
USIM5 USINAS SIDERURGICAS DE MINAS GERAIS PREF A
NATU3 NATURA & CO HOLDING SA
LTM LATAM AIRLINES GROUP SA
FEC FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
NEXA NEXA RESOURCES S.A.
RAIL3 RUMO SA
KALLPA KALLPA
CSNA3 COMPANHIA SIDERURGICA NACIONAL
VALE3 VALE S.A.
KLBN3 KLABIN SA
SUZANO SUZANO
UNIGEL UNIGEL
AMBP3 BZ AMBIPAR PARTICIPACOES E EMPR
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Japanese Telcos Tariffs – Impact on Global EM & Ja...
Perhaps the biggest surprise from last night’s White House announcement was the scale of tariffs imposed on Asian exporters (and South Africa). Being an ally of America provided no benefit with Thailand (36%) facing higher tariffs than China (34%). By contrast, Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa are less negatively impacted, and may even benefit overall from dollar weakness. We run through likely implications for our coverage in Global EM and Japan. Spoiler alert: we see Rakuten as most negati...
- ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
- Oscar Rönnkvist
- Øystein Elton Lodgaard
- Simon Granath
- Filipe Botelho
- Josseline Jenssen
- Lorena Reich
- Lorena Reich
Millicom - Earnings Flash - Q4 FY 2024 Results - Lucror Analytics
Millicom has posted solid Q4/24 results, with double-digit y-o-y EBITDA growth due to cost efficiency measures and higher mobile ARPU, despite decreased revenues on account of lower fixed ARPU and phone & equipment sales. Liquidity remained solid, despite decreased cash. The company re-affirmed its shareholder remuneration policy during the earnings call, and expects to resume dividend distribution on a quarterly basis. This should impact FCF. Moreover, at FYE 2025, we expect net leverage t...
- Filipe Botelho
- Josseline Jenssen
- Lorena Reich
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Latam
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Embraer, Falabella, Grupo Posadas, Pemex, TGS, Iochpe-Maxion, Millicom, Klabin, Total Play, Buenaventura, Marfrig, Liberty Puerto Rico, BRF, Braskem, Hidrovias, Cosan SA
- ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
- Oscar Rönnkvist
- Øystein Elton Lodgaard
- Simon Granath
- ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
- Oscar Rönnkvist
- Øystein Elton Lodgaard
- Simon Granath
- Chris Hoare
EM FWA-Watch S-Curve continuing to accelerate in India, with implicat...
Indian FWA net adds continue to accelerate and reached roughly c. 2.1m in the December quarter. India is probably therefore now accounting for around 50% of global shipments. We continue to think this is a critical development, and likely to drive an S-curve of adoption in Global EM.
- ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
- Oscar Rönnkvist
- Øystein Elton Lodgaard
- Simon Granath
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers – NSR EM Top picks Feb 25 update. Top-8 beco...
We update the NSR GEM Top Picks list. No stocks are dropped, and we add LILAC and TIM Brasil to our list, extending it to a Top-10 list from Top-8. Our picks had a good start, up 12% on average since the start of the year. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Filipe Botelho
- Josseline Jenssen
- Lorena Reich
- Felix Fischer
PBR.N PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S/A ADS
MELI MERCADOLIBRE INC.
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
GPRK GEOPARK
ARCO ARCOS DORADOS HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
ACD ADECOAGRO S.A.
CENCOSUD CENCOSUD S.A.
AZTECA.CPO TV AZTECA S.A. DE C.V. CPO
VCM.B VOLCAN COMPANIA MINERA S.A.A. CLASS B
4FZ ORBIA ADVANCE CORP. SAB DE CV
PAMP PAMPA ENERGIA SA
ALSEA ALSEA S.A.B. DE C.V.
MINSURI1 MINSUR S.A.
FALABELLA FALABELLA S.A.
TGSU2 TRANSPORTADORA DE GAS DEL SUR SA CLASS B
YPFD YPF SA CLASS D
KUOB GRUPO KUO S.A.B.
ECOPETROL ECOPETROL SA
AEROMEX GRUPO AEROMEXICO
PFAVH AVIANCA HOLDINGS SA PFD
INRETC1 INRETAIL PERU
AESGENER AES GENER S.A.
TIGO SDB MILLICOM INTERNATIONAL CELLULAR SA SWEDISH DEPOSITORY RECEIPT
NEMAKA NEMAK S.A.B. DE C.V.
CEXA CEMEX SAB DE CV (ADR)
TUPY3 TUPY S/A ORD
UGPA3 ULTRAPAR PARTICIPACOES S.A.
USIM5 USINAS SIDERURGICAS DE MINAS GERAIS PREF A
NATU3 NATURA & CO HOLDING SA
LTM LATAM AIRLINES GROUP SA
FEC FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
NEXA NEXA RESOURCES S.A.
RAIL3 RUMO SA
KALLPA KALLPA
CSNA3 COMPANHIA SIDERURGICA NACIONAL
VALE3 VALE S.A.
KLBN3 KLABIN SA
AMBP3 AMBIPAR PARTICIPACOES E EMPREEN
SUZANO SUZANO
UNIGEL UNIGEL
- ABGSC Telecom Equipment Research
- Oscar Rönnkvist
- Simon Granath
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