Greater China Strategy | Hong Kong Budget 2026-27 The 2026-27 Budget marks a shift from deficit spending to structural consolidation, projecting a HK$22.1b surplus (0.6% of GDP) from last year’s HK$67.0b deficit (2% of GDP), which will lift fiscal reserves from 8 months to 10 months of government expenditure. Real GDP growth is projected at 2.5-3.5% yoy, with CPI at 1.7% yoy. Policy prioritises Northern Metropolis and AI investment, while property measures have turned more prudent, raising luxur...
Company Update | Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB/BUY/Bt190.50/Target: Bt214.00) BH’s 4Q25 analyst meeting had a positive tone, supported by progress in the Kuwait talks, which reaffirmed BH as a referral destination with receivables settled, though the timing remains unclear. 1Q26 revenue is guided for ±2-3% yoy growth depending on Middle East tensions, with risks from Ramadan and geopolitics. BIH Phuket’s opening is delayed to 2H27, easing 2026 cost pressure. Cambodian weakness persists, while the S...
Top Stories Company Results | Betagro (BTG TB/HOLD/Bt20.50/Target: Bt21.00) BTG reported a 4Q25 core profit of Bt935m (-3% yoy and -23% qoq). The results beat our and the market’s forecasts. Management expects swine prices to increase gradually to around Bt65/kg and targets a swine price of Bt70/kg in 2026. Looking ahead, we expect 1Q26 earnings to increase slightly qoq, supported by higher ASPs. However, earnings are expected to decline yoy due to a high base. Maintain HOLD with a target pric...
Company Results | Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB/BUY/Bt194.00/Target: Bt214.00) BH posted a 4Q25 net profit of Bt1.89b (-0.9% yoy), in line with our forecast and the consensus’, as a higher tax rate offset solid foreign patient growth. Margins improved on lower SG&A from several cost savings. Thai-Cambodia tensions continue to pressure volumes, while influenza cases rose 5.2% yoy, supporting Thai demand. BH announced an additional Bt9.00 dividend (5.7% yield). Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt2...
Top Stories Company Results | GFPT (GFPT TB/HOLD/Bt10.10/Target: Bt11.00) GFPT reported a 4Q25 core profit of Bt494m (+59% yoy but -31% qoq). The results exceeded our and the market’s expectations. 2025’s net profit was Bt2,439m (+23.51%), while core profit stood at Bt2,441m (+30% yoy). Expect unexciting earnings momentum in 2026 due to global competition and lower gross profit margin yoy. Downgrade to HOLD with a lower target price of Bt11.00 (previously Bt13.50). Company Results | PTT (PTT...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile CATL, BYD, and Changan are deploying SIBs in EVs due to longer cycle lives, strong cold-weather performance and better fire safety. SIB-equipped EV sales are projected to make up 4-9% of global EV sales. LIBs remain dominant, but CATL benefits from diversification. The lithium market is expected to stay resilient through 2030. The hike in lithium carbonate costs will mostly be borne by auto OEMs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; BUY CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth, G...
Company Update | Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB/BUY/Bt187.50/Target: Bt214.00) BH is expected to post a slight earnings contraction in 4Q25 due to a high tax-benefit base last year, despite decent revenue growth supported by Middle Eastern and Thai check-up demand. Cambodian patient revenue remains under pressure from ongoing tensions and should persist from the election results. Margins should improve slightly on continuous cost controls. Influenza cases continue to rise yoy, supporting Thai patien...
Top Stories Company Results | Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB/BUY/Bt36.00/Target: Bt40.00) BCP reported a 4Q25 net profit of Bt2.2b, largely in line with our estimate, doubling qoq and rebounding strongly yoy. Core profit rose to Bt4.1b (+125% yoy, +27% qoq), driven by a higher GRM of US$10.80/bbl and record-high run rate of 280kbd. FY25 core profit increased 67% yoy to Bt10.2b. We expect earnings momentum to remain solid in 2026, supported by resilient distillate demand, renewable contributions,...
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Company Update | Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB/BUY/Bt180.00/Target: Bt214.00) The tone during BH’s analyst meeting was neutral, with management guiding 2-4% yoy top-line growth in 4Q25, supported by sustained Middle Eastern patient momentum and seasonal demand for health check-ups in Thailand. Cambodian patient volumes may normalise by 1H26. No new updates were provided on the Kuwaiti patient issue, although referrals are still expected to resume soon. The Saudi MOU remains delayed due to changes i...
Top Stories Company Results | CP All (CPALL TB/BUY/Bt48.50/Target: Bt65.00) We believe the market has been overly pessimistic. CPALL delivered the strongest performance among retail peers in 3Q25. We also see a 3% upside to our 2025 forecast. It reported an 18% yoy rise in 3Q25 net profit, driven by margin expansion and continued strength in the convenience store segment and other businesses. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt65.00. Company Results | PTT (PTT TB/BUY/Bt30.25/Target: Bt38.0...
Company Results | Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB/BUY/Bt177.50/Target: Bt214.00) BH delivered solid 3Q25 results with a net profit of Bt2.04b (+4.1% yoy), driven by 3.5% growth in foreign patient revenue, notably from the Middle East, Myanmar, and Bangladesh, offsetting weaker Thai patient demand. The new Ministry of Commerce measure poses minimal impact due to BH’s focus on foreign and inpatient treatments. Kuwait referrals are expected to resume soon. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt214.00, o...
Top Stories Company Results | Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB/BUY/Bt29.00/Target: Bt40.00) BCP posted a strong 3Q25 rebound with a net profit of Bt1.1b and core profit of Bt3.2b, driven by higher GRM at US$7.4/bbl and run rate 90% (265kbd) after Sriracha’s unit restart. EBITDA surged to Bt10.3b, while marketing margin rose to Bt0.85/litre and BCPG gained from Laos hydro and new wind projects. Despite minor inventory losses, all segments improved. Outlook remains positive with firm GRM, VLCC termi...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The anti-involution policy boosted OEMs’ 3Q25 earnings by ending the price war. However, the industry disruptor BYD saw worsened liquidity due to sales slowdown and inventory pile-up. Auto part companies saw margin erosion in 3Q25 due to delayed impacts from the OEMs’ price war, but 4Q25 margin will stabilise. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Cut target price for Li Auto to HK$60.0. Raise target price for Weich...
Company Update | Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB/BUY/Bt178.00/Target: Bt214.00) We upgrade BH to BUY with a target price of Bt214.00. BH’s outlook has improved with its strong 3Q25 performance and positive sentiment drivers. BH did not join the Kuwait conference and will not receive any negative impact. BH focuses on high-paying foreign and inpatient clients, insulating it from the new pricing measures. Net profit is expected at Bt2.5b (+4.6% yoy), supported by recovering Middle Eastern demand. Wit...
Top Stories Company Update | Asset World Corporation (AWC TB/BUY/Bt2.08/Target: Bt3.30) AWC’s Jurassic World at Asiatique, launched in Aug 25 with Bt1.4b capex, exceeds targets with 2,400-2,800 visitors and Bt2m daily revenue. The park attracted mainly Thai families and school groups, with rising foreign visitors, particularly from China and Korea. It boosted Asiatique’s retail traffic, strengthening rental demand. AWC has planned periodic content refreshes to sustain interest and may replica...
Greater China Economics | Inflation September’s CPI inflation improved slightly to -0.3% yoy (+0.1ppt), with core CPI reaching a ytd high of 1.0% yoy. However, food prices remained weak (-4.4% yoy), led by a 17% yoy fall in pork prices. PPI deflation eased to -2.3% yoy (+0.6ppt), with broad recovery in mining and quarrying and raw metal materials. Looking ahead, look out for improvement in consumer goods PPI inflation, which should be indicative of a sustainable improvement in pricing power....
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV sales rebounded last week, with PEV growth surging from below 5% to over 30% due to subsidies and new models. Geely and XPeng led, while BYD and Li Auto lagged. Vehicle exports rose 26% yoy in August, driven by gains in the EU, Africa, and Middle East. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL (target price raised to Rmb520) and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Sector Update | Healthcare Falling interest rates are expected to significant...
The tone at BH’s 2Q25 analyst meeting was positive. Management provided a positive development update on the Kuwaiti patient issue, indicating that it should be resolved soon. The 3Q25 guidance is also promising as last year’s base will no longer include the Kuwait patient portion and revenue intensity is expected to improve. We are more positive on BH, but the timeline and the magnitude of Kuwaiti patients’ return is still uncertain, and the market has already priced this in. Maintain HOLD...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Property Expect earnings to recover in 2Q25, but 2H25 outlook remains uncertain. Update Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB/HOLD/Bt176.50/Target: Bt185.00) Cautiously optimistic in 2H25. Kasikorn Bank (KBANK TB/BUY/Bt160.50/Target: Bt192.00 To increase dividend policy from 25% to 50% and guide for potential capital management.
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