Over the past few months, we have been writing on the increased signs of competitive intensity in the German mobile market. We are only nine days into the New Year and sadly there are signs of this further heating up with new moves by DT and 1&1. In this report, we review those moves in more detail and consider the potential impact on all the companies involved (DT, Vodafone, Telefonica and 1&1).
Le maintien d’un environnement baissier des taux d’intérêt devrait être porteur pour le secteur immobilier en 2025 et lui permettre de continuer à surperformer. Dans ce contexte, nous privilégions le commerce et le résidentiel allemand , qualifiés de «safe haven» et plus spécifiquement Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia et Xior Student Housing pour un potentiel moyen de +30%. Elles sont les plus à même pour nous d’exécuter leur stratégie de croissance / repositionnement. Nous abaisson...
An environment of further interest rate decline is set to underpin the real estate sector in 2025 and see it continue to outperform. On this basis, we prefer retail and the German residential market, which are seen as safe havens, more specifically Covivio, CTP, Merlin Properties, URW, Vonovia and Xior Student Housing for an average upside of +30%. They are the best positioned, as we see it, to execute their growth/repositioning strategies. We have downgraded Branicks, Cofinimmo, Icade and Patr...
NEWS SUMMARY: ARCELORMITTAL, ECOENER, ENDESA, OHLA. Moderate drops in a session without volume and with weaker macro data Despite the US rally seen last Friday after the European closing bell, in the absence of additional catalysts, the worse macroeconomic data released yesterday in the US dragged down European stock markets in a session with low volume. Thus, in the STOXX 600 Pharma stood out thanks to the rally of Novo Nordisk following last Friday’s strong corrections whereas Leisure and Aut...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ARCELOR MITTAL, ENDESA, ECOENER, SECTOR ELECTRICO ESPAÑA, OHLA. EUROPA: BASF Caídas moderadas en una sesión sin volumen y datos macro algo más flojos de fondo A pesar de la subida de EE.UU. el viernes después del cierre en Europa, en ausencia de más catalizadores, los peores datos macro publicados ayer en EE.UU, terminaron lastrando las bolsas europeas en una sesión con poco volumen. Así, en el STOXX 600, destacó al alza la subida de Farma gracias...
NEWS SUMMARY: ENAGÁS, CAF, LAR ESPAÑA. A week of corrections in view of the delay in rate cut expectations in the US US stock exchanges rallied last Friday with the good inflation data (core deflator) but slid near -1.5% last week vs. -2.0% European stock markets due to the fewer rate cuts expected by the Fed in 2025. Thus, in the STOXX 600 all sectors ended with drops last week, led by Pharma and Basic Resources vs. the better relative performance of Consumer Goods and Technology. On the macro...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: CAF, ENAG, LAR ESPAÑA. Semana de caídas en bolsa ante el retraso en las expectativas de bajadas de tipos en EE.UU. Las bolsas de EE.UU. rebotaron el viernes con el buen dato de inflación (deflactor del consumo) pero se dejaron en la semana cerca de un -1,5% y las europeas un -2,0%, acusando las menores bajadas de tipos previstas para 2025 por parte de la Fed. Así, en el STOXX 600, todos los sectores cerraron la semana con caídas, lideradas por Far...
NEWS SUMMARY: AMADEUS, ELECTRICITY SECTOR, GRIFOLS, TALGO. Fewer rate cuts in the US in 2025 European stock markets ended with gains ahead of the Fed’s decision of cutting rates by 25bps, as expected. Thus, in the STOXX 600, Technology and Banks (that recovered part of the ground lost at the previous session) were the best performers whereas Food and Basic Resources saw the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the euro zone, November’s inflation was cut one tenth vs. the preliminary data to 2.2...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: AMADEUS, GRIFOLS, SECTOR ELÉCTRICO, TALGO. EUROPA: SIEMENS, UNICREDIT. Menos bajadas de tipos en EE.UU. en 2025 Las bolsas europeas cerraron el día con ganancias previo a la decesión de la Fed de recortar los tipos 25 p.b. En el STOXX 600, los ganadores fueron Tecnología y Bancos (recuperaron parte de lo perdido el día anterior) mientras que Alimentación y R. Básicos terminaron con el mayor castigo. Por el lado macro, en la Eurozona la inflación d...
2024 saw the best outperformance for the telecoms sector since 2013 (and the third best since 2000) and ironically this came in a year with one of the lowest announced M&A volumes. We believe this is a testament to improved perception of the underlying fundamentals.
NEWS SUMMARY: MELIÁ HOTELS, OHLA. Doubts on the horizon European stock markets saw slight corrections after the disappointing macroeconomic data released in China. On the geopolitical front, the German chancellor O. Scholz lost the confidence vote, paving the way for early elections in February. Thus, in the STOXX 600, defensive sectors such as Pharma and Telecoms were the best performers whereas Autos and Real Estate saw the biggest drops. On the macro side, in the euro zone, December’s PMI d...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: MELIÁ, OHLA. Algunas dudas en el horizonte Ligeras caídas en los mercados europeos tras la decepción en los datos macroeconómicos de China. Desde el frente geopolítico, el canciller alemán, O. Scholz, perdió la cuestión de confianza parlamentaria, allanando el camino para unas elecciones anticipadas en febrero. En el STOXX 600, los ganadores del día fueron defensivos como Farma y Telecomunicaciones mientras que Autos e Inmobiliario sufrieron las ma...
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