HEADLINES: • OMV: 2Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 2Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: 2Q25E FX mortgage saga provisions information NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: monthly sales disappoint again – limited 8% yoy growth in June NEGATIVE • Türkiye macro: June budget data shows stable, but wide, deficit • Titan: invests in fly-ash processing facility in the UK NEUTRAL
Ahead of H1 2025 earnings on 1st August, we have lifted our Q2 2025E sales forecasts to 8.1% o/w 4.5% LfL excluding calendar and more globally our FY25-27 EPS estimates by 2% to reflect a stronger LfL recovery in Poland (fuelled by food inflation and an easing in the price war) and better margin de
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: growth prism – new angles, brighter future (stays BUY) • European oil and gas monthly: June 2025 – bullish cues from Hormuz • Baltic Classifieds Group: solid FY 2H25 results, affected by one-offs NEUTRAL • Text: key takeaways from the preliminary 1Q25-26 earnings call NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: makes new natural gas discovery POSITIVE • Arabian Drilling: secures contract extensions for four rigs POSITIVE
EME Equity Market – June 2025 All EME indices in the green in June, with a rebound in Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.2% mom in EUR terms and 6.9% in USD terms. The Turkish ISE 30 Index was the best performer in our region, recouping the losses from the previous month and adding +6.6% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX and the Polish WIG indices added 3.1% and 2.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively, followed closely by the Romanian BET and the Greek ASE, with both adding 2.0% mom i...
Green color and huge weekly turnover set SOFIX at 1025.22 (+1.8%) – level we haven’t seen since September 2008. Weekly turnover tripled and reached BGN 44m., compared to the average one YTD of BGN 15.6m. Main distributors for the increased volume were Doverie Unted Holding’s buy-back and Sopharma’s sales of its treasury shares. The week was highlighted also by the first IPO this year of Green Innovation which raised almost BGN 8m. on Tuesday.
The Bulgarian benchmark index SOFIX climbed 1.12% to 1025.22, reaching a record 16-year high on the final trading day of the week. The rise was driven by strong performances from Bulgarian Real Estate Fund (BREF, BGN 4.94, +2.23%) and Sopharma (SFA, BGN 7.00, +6.06%). Meanwhile Neochim (NEOH, BGN 22.00, -2.65%) and Albena (ALB, BGN 26.20, -2.96%) traded lightly and curbed the broader market’s momentum. As a result, BGBX40 and BGTR30 posted modest gains of 1.17% (188.81) and 0.76% (942.08), respe...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: disruption in Middle East operations • Romanian banks: draft government plan suggests new tax on banks is being considered • MOL: to acquire Budapest University of Technology and Economics NEGATIVE • Graphisoft Park: sells residential land plot POSITIVE • CEZ: AGM approves dividend of CZK 47/share NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: to invest in solar power plant in Bulgaria NEUTRAL • OPAP: Greece invites bidders for State lotteries licence NEUTRAL • Short News (BFT, CDR)
HEADLINES: • DO & CO: flying with flavour (stays BUY) • Türkiye macro: CBT keeps rates unchanged • Romania macro: negotiations for the next government remain tough • OMV Petrom: signs supply agreement for its biofuels plant NEUTRAL • EME Strategy: MSCI – 2025 Global Market Accessibility Review
The main indexes on the BSE retreated last week with the exception of BGREIT (221.17; +0.6% WoW). The blue-chip SOFIX (1006.98) lost 0.6%, while the wider BGBX40 lost the most (187.06; -0.7% WoW). The top gainer within our universe was Bulgarian Real Estate Fund (BREF, BGN 4.88, +4.7%), while Shelly Group (SLYG, EUR 47.5, -4.8%) and Telematic Interactive Bulgaria (TIB, BGN 21.60, -4.4%) lost the most. Both the volumes (+123.1% YtD) and the weekly turnover (+156.2% YtD) were well above their YtD ...
The Bulgarian equity market finished strong on Tuesday, leaving the major indexes at fresh record highs. The broad base buying activity left SOFIX (1 017.91) with 0.89% gain, followed by BGBX40 (189.33, +0.69%) and BGTR30 (941.90, +0.44%). Bulgarian Real Estate Fund (BREF, BGN 4.90, +6.06%) and the heavy-weighted Sopharma (SFA, BGN 6.68, +3.73%) and Shelly (SLYG, EUR 50.80, +2.01%) attracted the most investors focus with higher than 3-month average volume. Doverie (DUH, BGN 9.14, -0.87%), Advanc...
The Bulgarian stock market continued the positive trend during the past week, as all major indexes closed on green, ranging from 0.1% to 1.4%. The benchmark SOFIX added 1.4% to settle at 1012.91, reflecting the impressive performance of the index members Doverie United Holding (DUH, BGN 9.28, +5.2%) and the powerhouse Shelly Group (SLYG, EUR 49.90, +9.2%). The top gainer within our list of selected companies was industrial Stara Planina Hold (SPH, BGN 9.10, +11.0%), while the red side started wi...
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
For a third consecutive trading session SOFIX (1007.26, +0.79%) gained altitude and crossed the resistant level of 1000. Sirma Group Holding (SGH, BGN 1.54, +5.48%) and Shelly (SLYG, BGN 46.90, +2.96%) flew over the day while the most traded name Sopharma (SFA, BGN 6.76, +0.30%) moved slightly North registering a few block trades. Advance Terrafund (ATER, BGN 2.90, -0.68%) and Bulgarian Stock Exchange (BSE, BGN 9.50, -0.52%) booked negative trading days and slipped with insignificant daily volum...
HEADLINES: • OPAP: 1Q25 – strong, as expected NEUTRAL • CD Projekt: 1Q25 EBIT broadly as expected, guidance on three unannounced projects POSITIVE • VIGO Photonics: adjusted EBITDA up 2x yoy (on a low base), in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual 1Q25 numbers fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: 1Q25 results – much weaker than expected NEGATIVE • Lamda Development: 1Q25 results – opex outside the Ellinikon better than expected, but quarterly capex still slow ...
The Bulgarian equity market finished a volatile session on firmly higher note with SOFIX (995.81, +1.45%) on its way to 1000 points, followed by BGBX40 (185.17, +1.01%) and BGTR30 (926.39, +0.46%) in the first trading day of the week. Bulgarian Stock Exchange (BSE, BGN 9.30, +8.14%), Shelly (SLYG, EUR 46.00, +5.99%) and Sopharma (SFA, BGN 6.68, +2.14%) began on a high note and steady added to their gains as the session carried on, though Sirma Group (SGH, BGN 1.40) and Smart Organic (SO, BGN 32....
HEADLINES: • Polish food retail: turning the corner (initiating on Zabka with a BUY, Eurocash and Jeronimo stay BUY, Dino stays SELL) • Benefit Systems: 1Q25 adjusted EBIT up 14% yoy, 10% above our forecast POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 1Q25 results – adjusted EBITDA up 11% yoy, in line with our forecast, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • Wirtualna Polska: 1Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 2% yoy, 2% above the consensus NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 1Q25 results in line with expectations NE...
We believe that, after the price war-impacted 2024 and the seasonally-challenged 1Q25, Polish grocers should enjoy Easter-supported demand and a leap in the VAT hike in 2Q25E. In our view, the Polish consumer has matured, following the tough experience of the pandemic, and the inflation bubble that followed. With a propensity to consume no longer close to 100%, we see the rollout-led growth as more tangible than pure lfl expansion. Within the high-growth names, we prefer Żabka (initiation with a...
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