DFDS A.S.: 1 director

A director at DFDS A.S. sold 20,615 shares at 210.000DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 63/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Balder (Hold, TP: SEK70.00) - Uptick in investment activities

Q1 PFPM was in line with our forecast but 3% below consensus. We believe the negative share price reaction was due to: 1) a minor uptick in NIBD despite the recent equity raise for Balder and Sato; 2) LFL rental growth of 3.7% YOY, below most peers’; and 3) cash flow down sequentially due in investing activities. We have cut our 2024–2025e FFOps by 5–7% on interest rates, and reiterate our HOLD and raise our target price to SEK70.

Archer (Buy, TP: NOK1.80) - Upside potential to consensus and peer gro...

We expect a straight-forward Q1, and we are in line with consensus on EBITDA. Trading below NOK1 for some time, the share price is up 19% YTD. However, with high leverage, the EV is up only 4%, and the stock screens as one of the most attractive in our coverage on 2025e EV/EBITDA (3.1x) and FCF to EV (18%). We find consensus 2025e EBITDA conservative (we are 6% above), with the Fulmar P&A contract explaining 75% of our 2025e EBITDA YOY growth. We reiterate our BUY with a raised target price of N...

Q1 reporting continues

This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.

A good start to the year

Q1 EPS 7% above, but some special elements. Backlog implies revenue estimates are robust. Strong momentum, high expectations - HOLD.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - Solid Maritime margin beat i...

Q1 EBITDA beat our estimate and consensus by 9%, explained by a stronger Maritime (KM) margin than expected. However, as previously guided, the Defence (KD) margin did fall to 17% in this quarter. We have edged our 2025–2026e EPS up 2% after primarily raising our KM margin assumptions, but reiterate our HOLD and NOK780 target price as we believe the stock is already pricing in a possible ramp-up of NATO defence spending to at least 2.5% of GDP for all member states.

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

Impressive earnings beat in Q1

Confirmation of the growth case. '24e EBIT revised up +8%. BUY and TP of SEK 310 maintained.

BONESUPPORT: debuts 2024 with strong financial results

Q1 2024 sales climbed by 54% (54% at CER) YoY and 7% QoQ, totalling SEK 184.4m. The US market, owing 77% of overall sales, was boosted by a 65% growth (65% at CER), with CERAMENT G being the major driver bringing SEK 92m sales (SEK 34.8m). EU showed a 27% YoY growth in sales, delivered by both prod

Strong start in Q1

Rich in growth, quality and valuation

Still growing well into Q1e. Strong tailwinds in Defence, but within expectations. Strong growth into the end of the decade priced in - HOLD.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - NATO spending sets the tone

We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), but raised our target price to NOK780 (680), as we believe the valuation now reflects a probable NATO defence-spending ramp-up. Based on our analysis of various Western defence-budget scenarios and the correlation to Kongsberg Gruppen’s growth and valuation, we find the following priced in: by 2030, all non-US NATO defence spending rising to 2.5% of GDP, the equipment share of spending increasing from 30% to 40%, and Kongsberg Gruppen’s EBITDA margin expanding f...