Pandora A/S: Second Party Opinion – Sustainability-Linked Finance Fram...

We have assigned an SQS2 to Pandora A/S' sustainability-linked finance framework, which is aligned with relevant principles and demonstrates a high contribution to sustainability.

Q1 a bit noisy but transformation on track

'24e EBIT lowered by 1%. '25e-'26e raised by 1-3%. COGS efficiencies largely achieved; Focus now on SG&A. TP raised to DKK 430 (400). BUY

FLSmidth (Buy, TP: DKK440.00) - Mixed start to the year

Following a rather mixed Q1 report, our 2024–2026e clean EPS are virtually unchanged. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK440 (400) on a slightly raised SOTP multiple approach. We like the continued earnings quality improvement and further value-creation potential through an exit from Cement.

Ready to increase its too low leverage

Over collection expected from increased legal costs. Cash EBITDA down 5% for 2024e-25e on ERC. Ready to invest more and increase its too low leverage. BUY.

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - Good start to the year

The Q1 results beat our estimates and consensus, with a strong EBIT margin of 24.2%, benefitting from operating leverage. The 2024 guidance was revised on FX for reported revenue growth to c3%-points (c4%-points) lower than in constant exchange rate (CER) terms, and adj. EBITDA growth to c8%-points (c9%-points) lower than in CER. However, in CER terms it was maintained for revenue up 7–10% YOY and adj. EBITDA up 10–16% YOY. We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK10.70) - Strong collection performance

Q1 PTP increased by 3% YOY, following a long-awaited drop in financial costs, largely on improved funding margins and a lower debt base. Collection performance remained solid, with unsecured collections at 105% of management’s forecast, and a positive revaluation after “sustained overperformance”. The company reiterated its disciplined investment outlook, along with its guidance of lower run-rate financing costs, prompting us to raise our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2%. We reiterate our BUY and have rai...

A weak quarter for mining with poor order execution

Overcollection blured by high legal costs

Nobia (Hold, TP: SEK5.10) - Soft project market

We have cut our 2024e adj. EBIT by 17%, mainly on lower margin assumptions for Nordic. Nobia expects continued challenging market conditions in 2024 (driven by the project segment), and plans to reduce its fixed cost base further. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK5.1 (5.0) on valuation.

Case intact after neutral Q1

Q1 EBITA in line with consensus. Minor revisions, '24e EBITA down marginally. Reiterate BUY, unchanged TP of SEK 125.

Q1'24e: Marginally below consensus on order intake, EBIT

Estimates lowered by 1-2%. Expect guidance to be maintained. TP raised to DKK 400 (350) - BUY

Securitas (Buy, TP: SEK158.00) - North America showing the way

The North American operation continued to shine in Q1, growing with strong earnings leverage, while Europe remained in transformation mode. We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 3–5% on the results, mainly due to FX. We still see a strong transformation case, as the journey towards the 8% profit margin target by end-2025 (LTM 6.6%) continues, with the riskier early part of the Stanley Security integration now largely finalised. We reiterate our BUY and SEK158 target price.

About to streamline the portfolio

Aker ASA reported a NAV of NOK 60.4bn, or NOK 813/share in Q1, down from NOK 851/share in Q4'23. The drop is mostly attributed to the share price development in AKERBP.

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - Strategic brands off to a good start

We forecast Q1 revenues of DKK5,209m, c0.8% above consensus, driven by strategic brands, for which we forecast 15.0% revenue growth YOY, and an adj. EBITDA margin of 30.3% (consensus 29.7%). We expect unchanged 2024 guidance in constant exchange rate (CER) terms, but believe Lundbeck will revise its guidance for reported figures due to FX. We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.

Struggle in Europe main issue in Q1

Mixed emotions about Kerecis

Q2 EBIT was 3-4% below expectations. Kerecis goodwill writedown is a troublesome read. Too expensive, too-low EPS growth and too many questions: SELL.