reports
- Erol Danis
- Koray Pamir
Model Portfolio Update - Removing Aygaz from our Model Portfolio
Following a very strong run and the partial normalization of the core valuation anomaly that underpinned our initial call, we have downgraded Aygaz to Hold from Buy and simultaneously remove it from our model portfolio, while retaining a constructive fundamental stance. Since the inclusion in our model portfolio, the shares are up 23% in USD, outperforming the BIST-100 by 22%. At the time of our rating upgrade, Aygaz’s participation portfolio (Tupras, Opet Aygaz REIC, United LPG, Sendeo) more t...
- Koray Pamir
Aygaz - Relative upside compression following strong run. Downgrade to...
Downgraded to Hold on risk/reward normalization: Since our upgrade to Buy on 30 July 2025, Aygaz has delivered a 31% return in USD, outperforming the BIST-100 by 32% and Tupras by 12%. This has substantially eroded the relative valuation cushion. Our 12M TP of TL272/share is unchanged, but implied upside has compressed to 30%, versus 43% for our coverage universe and 40% for our ex-banks coverage. On a 12M rating basis, this moves Aygaz into Hold territory: we continue to like the name fundament...
- Koray Pamir
- Mehmet Yigit Yorulmaz
Monthly Refining Margin Data (October 2025)
In October, within mid distillates, diesel cracks (in USD/bbl.) registered at 26.4 (down 0.2 m/m, up 11.4 y/y) and jet fuel cracks registered at 24.2 (up 2.6 m/m, up 10.8 y/y) based on Tupras provided data. Gasoline cracks came to 18.4 (down 3.4 m/m, up 4.5 y/y). HSFO cracks were realized at negative 5.3 (up 0.7 m/m, down 1.1 y/y). Differentials were slightly wider m/m. As outlined in our report published today, regional mid distillate cracks remain strong in the region, as evidenced in this mo...
- Koray Pamir
Aygaz - Buy re-iterated. Appealing valuation & favourable dividend yie...
Buy maintained; 12M roll-forward and TP raised: We maintain Buy and roll our 12M valuation to Dec-2026, lifting our TP 9% to TL272/share, implying 38% upside (Coverage: 43%; ex-bank Coverage: 37%). Shares have outperformed the BIST-100 by +9%/+18% over 1M/3M (+7%/+17% in USD). We keep Aygaz in our model portfolio, as earnings carry, balance-sheet strength, and look-through value continue to screen well on our cross-coverage stack. Valuation appeal with earnings support—still room to run: Despit...
- Koray Pamir
- Mehmet Yigit Yorulmaz
Monthly Refining Margin Data (September 2025)
In September, within mid distillates, diesel cracks (in USD/bbl.) registered at 26.6 (up 4.6 m/m, up 11.8 y/y) and jet fuel cracks registered at 21.6 (up 3.3 m/m, up 9.4 y/y) based on Tupras provided data. Gasoline cracks came to 21.8 (up 3.4 m/m, up 10.5 y/y). HSFO cracks were realized at negative 9.1 (down 2.3 m/m, up 4.2 y/y). Differentials were slightly wider m/m. On a quarterly basis, diesel cracks came to 25.0 (up 60% y/y, up 46% q/q), jet cracks rose to 20.0 (up 48% y/y, up 26% q/q) and ...
- Erol Danis
- Koray Pamir
Model Portfolio Update - Adding Aygaz to our Model Portfolio
Yesterday may have been about iPhone 17; today is about Aygaz where, even after a 10% holding discount, the participation portfolio now trades broadly at par with its market cap, leaving the core LPG franchise (including net cash of TL2.3bn) effectively priced at zero—an inefficiency we expect to mean-revert. We recently upgraded to Buy and the shares have outperformed the BIST-100 by c.5% since; we now add Aygaz to our model portfolio to reiterate our conviction. Near-term EPS is supported by ...
- Koray Pamir
Aygaz - Core business valuation gyrates back to attractive following U...
Upgraded to Buy on improved relative valuation: We upgrade Aygaz to Buy (from Hold) with a revised 12-month target price of TL230/share (+23%), implying 50% upside potential. This follows a valuation refresh—including updated subsidiary assumptions and a shift in our valuation horizon to mid-2026. Our key argument centers on a compelling relative valuation reset: Aygaz has underperformed Tupras by 17% since our downgrade in January 2025, despite Tupras constituting approximately 68% of Aygaz’s t...
- Koray Pamir
Aygaz
We have updated our underlying assumptions for Aygaz and raised our 12-month TP up by 21%, to TL175/share, implying 44% upside potential. Accordingly, we upgrade our rating to Buy from Hold. Our key argument is that Aygaz’s valuation has become tangibly more compelling following an underperformance of 43% over the past year vs its key valuation component (c.72% of target NAV), a stake adjusted 9.28% share in Tupras . In effect, implied valuation of Aygaz’s core LPG business and 55% stake in carg...
- Research Team
Coverage discontinued (AEFES TI, AYGAZ TI, ENJSA TI, EREGL TI, TKFEN T...
Due to a change in analyst responsibilities, we are discontinuing our coverage of Anadolu Efes, Aygaz, Enerjisa Enerji, Erdemir, Tekfen Holding and Vestel Beyaz with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks.
- Koray Pamir
Aygaz
2Q results review – Better than expected: Aygaz announced TL724m net income in 2Q23 (down 34% y/y and up 5% q/q) above the consensus estimate of TL543m (Ünlü:TL596m). Net sales increased by 2% y/y and decreased by 22% q/q to TL9,715m in 2Q23 (Consensus: TL10,883m; Ünlü: TL12,116m). EBITDA rose by 439% y/y and increased by 753% q/q to TL326m in 2Q23 versus the market consensus of TL159m and Ünlü estimate of TL110m led primarily by the strength of its domestic LPG mark-ups. Aygaz’s EBITDA margin i...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: all indices gain in February, bar ...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
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- Research Team
WOOD Daily: OMV AV; IS Macro; MBK PW; FROTO TI; AYGAZ TI; TUPRS TI; AR...
HEADLINES: • OMV: turning oil fields into yields (upgraded to BUY) • Iceland macro: MPC resumes its tightening cycle • mBank: solid 4Q22, very strong underlying profitability, pending further FX mortgage saga costs POSITIVE • Ford Otosan: 4Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Aygaz: 4Q22 results review - net income beat, driven by Tupras POSITIVE • Tupras: 4Q22 results • Arion banki: 4Q22 highlights - slower margin momentum NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: 4Q22 results - weak EBITDA, AED 0.103 d...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkey still on top (resend)
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
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- Research Team
WOOD Daily: SGH BU; ILRA CZ; US Macro; RBI AV; PEO PW; ING PW; SHO PW;...
HEADLINES: • Sirma Group Holding: healthy leverage position, amidst slowdown in IT (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Ilirija d.d.: summer season yields solid, yet uneven, results (downgraded to HOLD) • US macro: no surprises, but no respite; recession is coming • Raiffeisen Bank International: EUR 1.1bn in 3Q22 net profit, supported hugely by Russian operations POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: 3Q22 net loss, but results show strength and high profitability POSITIVE • ING BSK: 3Q22 results rather neutral a...
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- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkish stocks outperform in Augus...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
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- Research Team
- Koray Pamir
Tupras / Aygaz
Event Summary: On April 26 Tupras announced that it would acquire 99.24% of Entek Elektrik Uretim (an electricity generation company with an installed capacity of 436MW), corresponding to 942.7m nominal shares. It will purchase the entity from Koc Holding and Aygaz , with each holding a 49.62% stake in Entek, through a partial demerger. The decision to make the acquisition was taken by Tupras’ BoD as it fitted within the framework of Tupras’ strategic transition plan. Tactical View: The 99.2...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Hungarian equities down 13.6% in M...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
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PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
DOAS DOGUS OTOMOTIV SERVIS VE TICARET A.S.
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
SPI S IMMO AG
AEFES ANADOLU EFES BIRACILIK VE MALT SANAYII A.S.
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
CIE CIECH S.A.
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
EEG1T EKSPRESS GRUPP A.S.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
AUG1L AGROWILL GROUP AB
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
AFLT AEROFLOT RUSSIAN AIRLINES
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
AYGAZ AYGAZ A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
SISE TURKIYE SISE VE CAM FABRIKALARI A.S.
ULKER ULKER BISKUVI SANAYI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
FMF FAMUR SA
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
POSR POZAVAROVALNICA SAVA
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
DAT DATAWALK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
SKK SIRMA GROUP HOLDING JSC
ROSN ROSNEFT OIL CO. SPONSORED GDR REGS
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
KMB KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD SKOPJE
TRP TERAPLAST
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
BNET BITTNET SYSTEMS
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
HMX1R HANSAMATRIX AS
LKODN OIL COMPANY LUKOIL PJSC SPONSORED ADR
OGZD GAZPROM (GDR)
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
COTE CONPET SA
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
A4L ALLTERCO AD
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
ATAD TATNEFT (GDR)
M MED LIFE
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
IIA IMMOFINANZ AG
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
ZB-R-A ZAGREBACKA BURZA DD
SF3 STS GROUP AG
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ADKO ADDIKO BANK
GR6 GRADUS
PEN PHOTON ENERGY NV
KOFOL KOFOLA CESKOSLOVENSKO A.S.
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
ALR ALRO SLATINA
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
SHO SHOPER
KCEL KCELL JSC
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: BGEO LN; TBCG LN; BHW PW; CCOLA TI; TLV RO; AYGAZ TI; MOH ...
HEADLINES: • Georgian banks: game on - banks are cheap (Bank of Georgia upgraded to BUY, TBC Bank Group stays BUY) • Bank Handlowy: posts huge turnaround in profitability in 1Q22 POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: 1Q22 - better than expected results POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: 1Q22 results solid and on track to meet FY22E budget • Aygaz: 1Q22 results review - 44% NI beat, driven by Entek and Tupras • Motor Oil Hellas: deal with Ellaktor - strong expansion into RES • Public Power Corporation: i...
DOAS DOGUS OTOMOTIV SERVIS VE TICARET A.S.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
AFLT AEROFLOT RUSSIAN AIRLINES
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
AYGAZ AYGAZ A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: stocks bleed amid Russian invasion...
EME Equity Market – February 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities bled in February due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The MSCI EME Europe Index declined by 38.7% in EUR terms and 38.8% in USD terms. Russian stocks, represented by the MOEX Index, lost the most in February, declining by 34.6% in EUR terms and 30.0% in RUB terms. The Hungarian BUX Index lost 21.8% in EUR terms and 18.2% in HUF terms; while the Polish WIG20 Index declined by 11.7% in EUR and 9.5% in PLN. In Prague, the...
GARAN TURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
TCELL TURKCELL ILETISIM HIZMETLERI A.S.
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
YNDX YANDEX NV CLASS A
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
RBI RAIFFEISEN BANK INTERNATIONAL AG
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
DOAS DOGUS OTOMOTIV SERVIS VE TICARET A.S.
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
KTY GRUPA KETY SA
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
AEFES ANADOLU EFES BIRACILIK VE MALT SANAYII A.S.
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
CIE CIECH S.A.
VESBE VESTEL BEYAZ ESYA SANAYI VE TICARET
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
EEG1T EKSPRESS GRUPP A.S.
TTKOM TURK TELEKOMUNIKASYON A.S.
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
AYGAZ AYGAZ A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
SISE TURKIYE SISE VE CAM FABRIKALARI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
LTS GRUPA LOTOS S.A.
FMF FAMUR SA
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MAIL MAIL.RU GROUP LTD. SPONSORED GDR
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
ALRS ALROSA PJSC
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
ROSN ROSNEFT OIL CO. SPONSORED GDR REGS
BELA JUMBO S.A.
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
NVTK NOVATEK JSC SPONSORED GDR REGS
TRP TERAPLAST
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
ADPL-R-A AD PLASTIK D.D.
BNET BITTNET SYSTEMS
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
5M71 MAGNIT PJSC SPONSORED GDR REGS
PLZL POLYUS (GDR)
HMX1R HANSAMATRIX AS
OGZD GAZPROM (GDR)
COTE CONPET SA
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
A4L ALLTERCO AD
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
ELPE HELLENIC PETROLEUM
PTKHY PETKIM PETROKIMYA HOLDING AS
CGEO GEORGIA CAPITAL
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
ZB-R-A ZAGREBACKA BURZA DD
NLBR NLB GROUP
ENJSA ENERJISA ENERJI
SF3 STS GROUP AG
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
GR6 GRADUS
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
KSPI KASPI KZ
OZON OZON HOLDINGS
HUGE HUUUGE
ALR ALRO SLATINA
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
SHO SHOPER
GDEV NEXTERS INC
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
KCEL KCELL JSC
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
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