We have updated our underlying assumptions for Aygaz and raised our 12-month TP up by 21%, to TL175/share, implying 44% upside potential. Accordingly, we upgrade our rating to Buy from Hold. Our key argument is that Aygaz’s valuation has become tangibly more compelling following an underperformance of 43% over the past year vs its key valuation component (c.72% of target NAV), a stake adjusted 9.28% share in Tupras . In effect, implied valuation of Aygaz’s core LPG business and 55% stake in carg...
Due to a change in analyst responsibilities, we are discontinuing our coverage of Anadolu Efes, Aygaz, Enerjisa Enerji, Erdemir, Tekfen Holding and Vestel Beyaz with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks.
2Q results review – Better than expected: Aygaz announced TL724m net income in 2Q23 (down 34% y/y and up 5% q/q) above the consensus estimate of TL543m (Ünlü:TL596m). Net sales increased by 2% y/y and decreased by 22% q/q to TL9,715m in 2Q23 (Consensus: TL10,883m; Ünlü: TL12,116m). EBITDA rose by 439% y/y and increased by 753% q/q to TL326m in 2Q23 versus the market consensus of TL159m and Ünlü estimate of TL110m led primarily by the strength of its domestic LPG mark-ups. Aygaz’s EBITDA margin i...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • OMV: turning oil fields into yields (upgraded to BUY) • Iceland macro: MPC resumes its tightening cycle • mBank: solid 4Q22, very strong underlying profitability, pending further FX mortgage saga costs POSITIVE • Ford Otosan: 4Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Aygaz: 4Q22 results review - net income beat, driven by Tupras POSITIVE • Tupras: 4Q22 results • Arion banki: 4Q22 highlights - slower margin momentum NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: 4Q22 results - weak EBITDA, AED 0.103 d...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Sirma Group Holding: healthy leverage position, amidst slowdown in IT (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Ilirija d.d.: summer season yields solid, yet uneven, results (downgraded to HOLD) • US macro: no surprises, but no respite; recession is coming • Raiffeisen Bank International: EUR 1.1bn in 3Q22 net profit, supported hugely by Russian operations POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: 3Q22 net loss, but results show strength and high profitability POSITIVE • ING BSK: 3Q22 results rather neutral a...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
Event Summary: On April 26 Tupras announced that it would acquire 99.24% of Entek Elektrik Uretim (an electricity generation company with an installed capacity of 436MW), corresponding to 942.7m nominal shares. It will purchase the entity from Koc Holding and Aygaz , with each holding a 49.62% stake in Entek, through a partial demerger. The decision to make the acquisition was taken by Tupras’ BoD as it fitted within the framework of Tupras’ strategic transition plan. Tactical View: The 99.2...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
HEADLINES: • Georgian banks: game on - banks are cheap (Bank of Georgia upgraded to BUY, TBC Bank Group stays BUY) • Bank Handlowy: posts huge turnaround in profitability in 1Q22 POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: 1Q22 - better than expected results POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: 1Q22 results solid and on track to meet FY22E budget • Aygaz: 1Q22 results review - 44% NI beat, driven by Entek and Tupras • Motor Oil Hellas: deal with Ellaktor - strong expansion into RES • Public Power Corporation: i...
EME Equity Market – February 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities bled in February due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The MSCI EME Europe Index declined by 38.7% in EUR terms and 38.8% in USD terms. Russian stocks, represented by the MOEX Index, lost the most in February, declining by 34.6% in EUR terms and 30.0% in RUB terms. The Hungarian BUX Index lost 21.8% in EUR terms and 18.2% in HUF terms; while the Polish WIG20 Index declined by 11.7% in EUR and 9.5% in PLN. In Prague, the...
HEADLINES: • Inter Cars: value and growth (stays BUY) • Bank Handlowy: NII recovery delivered as the bank rebuilds its bond portfolio POSITIVE • Orange Polska: 4Q21 results - adjusted EBITDAaL up 8% yoy, 4% above our estimate, 2% above consensus POSITIVE • Aygaz: 4Q21 results review - strong, above the consensus POSITIVE • Novatek: 4Q21 - strong results, in line with the consensus estimates • Tupras: 4Q21 results - big beat for net income on inventory gains • Sistema: may conduct IPO of Binno...
EME Equity Market – November 2021 Market performance – most markets down, with Czech PX Index (+3.0%) the exception. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 8.9% in EUR terms and 10.7% in USD in November. Prague’s PX Index added 3.0% in EUR terms and 2.3% in local currency, followed by the Romanian BET Index, which declined 3.2% in both EUR and RON terms. Greece’s ASE Index declined by 3.4% in EUR terms, while Hungary’s BUX Index declined by 6.2% in EUR and 5.0% in HUF. The Russian MOEX Index declined 8.6...
HEADLINES: • Komercijalna Banka: too expensive now (downgraded to SELL) • NLB Banka: good story, unattractive price (downgraded to SELL) • PKO BP: delivers solid 3Q21 and marks 12% ROE, even without positive impact of rising interest rates POSITIVE • OTP Bank: 3Q21 results solid, but not exceeding high expectations NEUTRAL • Dino: single-digit miss in 3Q21 NEGATIVE • MOL: 3Q21 results - strong result, beating expectations mildly • Turkcell: 3Q21 results - 9% NI beat, minor guidance upgrade P...
EME Equity Market – October 2021 Market performance – most markets end October in the black, WIG20 +4.1%. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% in EUR terms and 3.4% in USD. Poland was the best-performing equity market, gaining 4.1% in both EUR and PLN terms. The Russian MOEX followed, adding 3.9% in EUR and 1.1% in local currency. The Greek ASE Index added 3.8%, while the Hungarian BUX Index advanced by 2.3% and 2.5% in EUR and local currency, respectively. Turkey’s ISE30 Index gained 0.5% in EUR...
EME Equity Market – August 2021 Market performance - The Hungarian BUX Index gained 9.8% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose 5.1% in EUR terms and 4.6% in USD terms. The best-performing equity index was the BUX, which added 9.8% in EUR terms and 6.9% in the local currency (LCU). The ISE30 Index advanced 7.7% in EUR terms and 5.8% in LCU, while Prague’s PX Index gained 6.5% in EUR terms and 6.2% in LCU. The Polish benchmark WIG20 Index added 6.1% in EUR terms and 5.1% in LCU, followed by ...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: strong set of 2Q21 results; 2021E adjusted ROE guidance of 18-20% looks achievable • PKO BP: 2Q21 results review - strong set of numbers, delivering a double-digit ROE • Logo Yazilim: 2Q21 results - high quality beat POSITIVE • Tupras: 2Q21 results - very strong net income, underlying profits better than expected POSITIVE • Aygaz: 2Q21 review - stable core business, surprise at Tupras POSITIVE • Astarta: 2Q21 EBITDA - strong beat vs. our expectations. amid revaluation of...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
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