reports
- Gabor Bukta
- Szabolcs Pal
CEE Banks – Great opportunities with different risk profiles
The CEE region is expected to deliver a moderate rebound of GDP growth in 2024,following the preceding year’s weak growth, fuelling expectations of sustainable profits inthe banking sector. Inflation is seen to be twin faced in our region, similar to most of the coreeconomies. Even with a diminished potential for much intra-year improvement of the inflationpath in 2024, this inflation provides several CEE central banks more room to cut policy ratesthis year. Lower interest rates are expected to ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: KSPI LI; KRU PW; TUPRS TI; TL Banks; SIPCHEM AB; JMT PL; E...
HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: 1Q24 highlights Kruk: buys more portfolios in Italy • Tupras: launches USD 256m propylene investment NEUTRAL • Turkish banks: coverage UNDER REVIEW • Sipchem: 1Q24E results preview (due on 25 April) NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 1Q24E results preview – 11% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 26 April, before the open) • Erste Bank: 1Q24E preview (due on 30 April) • BRD-GSG: 1Q24E preview (due on 2 May) NEUTRAL • PKO BP: 1Q24E preview (due on 9 May) • Banca Transilvania: 1Q24E...
KRU KRUK S.A.
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
KSPI KASPI KZ
HUGE HUUUGE
- Research Team
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ALPHA GA; EUROB GA; ETE GA; TPEIR GA; CPS PW; PKN PW; ING ...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
INPST INPOST S.A.
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: mixed market performances in March
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ALK ALKALOID AD SKOPJE
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
CTPNV KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
ONE CTP NV
GPP ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
AROBS GRUPA PRACUJ DA
2381 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
9526 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
4071 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
H2O ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
7203 HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
AQ ELM CO
AIRA AQUILA PART PROD COM
AIR ASTANA JSC
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EME Macro/Strategy Weekly; RICHT HB; SNG RO; TBCG LN; TLV ...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (18-24 March) • Richter: proposes dividend of HUF 423/share POSITIVE • Romgaz: makes two dividend proposals NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: notes from the Uzbekistan webinar POSITIVE • Banca Transilvania: AGM convocation NEUTRAL • Short News (HUG)
- Mihaly Gajda
Challenging Transformation Journey Amid Energy Security and Geopolitic...
Our target price for OMV is EUR 48.1, indicating a 27% upside potential, inclusive of the announced EUR 5.05 dividend. For MOL, we propose a target price of HUF 3,245, suggesting an 18% upside potential, factoring in an estimated dividend of HUF 250. We recommend 'Buy' for OMV and 'Accumulate' for MOL. In our opinion OMV holds a smaller risk. Despite challenges in the petrochemical sector, the company has achieved greater success with its international E&P portfolio, boasts more efficient refini...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PL Banks Sector Update; KAP LI; JAHEZ AB; BRD RO; MGROS TI
HEADLINES: • Polish Banks: not done yet (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Kazatomprom: digging the margins (stays BUY) • Jahez: mixed 2023 financial results NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: publishes 2024 budget NEUTRAL • Migros: BoD to propose DPS of TRY 6.904 NEUTRAL • Short News (M, BRISA)
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
9526 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: HUG PW; KMGZ KZ; ENA PW; MONET CP; KOMB CP; MOL HB; SAR GA...
HEADLINES: • Huuuge Games: 4Q23 slightly above the consensus; up to USD 70m buyback announced (14% yield) POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23 results – weaker than expected NEGATIVE • Enea: announces significant impairment charges (PLN 2.9bn) affecting the FY23 figures NEGATIVE • MONETA Money Bank/Komercni Banka: negative impact from the drop in mortgage rates NEGATIVE • MOL: updated strategy for 2030E – conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Sarantis: key takeaways from the Investor Day • Allegro: key ta...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ASELS TI; GE Macro; CEZ CP; ALE PW; VER AV; CCOLA TI; OPAP...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: quo vadis? New contracts, new products and upcoming transition to inflation accounting POSITIVE • Georgia macro: NBG cuts policy rate by 75bps • CEZ: press reports CEZ has won tender for 55% of GasNet, could weigh on the 2023 dividend payout NEGATIVE • Allegro: 4Q23 results above expectations; guidance for a strong 1Q24E POSITIVE • Verbund: 4Q23 results in line with guidance NEUTRAL • Coca-Cola Icecek: 4Q23 results – in line operationally NEUTRAL • OPAP: 4Q23 results and FY...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PGSUS TI; FROTO TI; ONE RO; ALK MS; EU Oil & Gas Monthly; ...
HEADLINES: • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q23 – decent end to another very good year NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: strong set of results in 4Q23 POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: FY23 – ramping up, with almost 1k units sold in 2023 • Alkaloid: 4Q23 – reaping the benefits of recent investments • Alkaloid: rating and price target changes • European oil and gas monthly: February 2024 – return of the crack • Transgaz: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Auto Partner: February sales growth accelerates...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Neutral results, Bank targets EUR 500 mln share buyback
Erste’s net income came to EUR 688 mln in Q4, down by 16% q-o-q and up by 34% y-o-y while the figure came 3% ahead of consensus and slightly below our estimate. The market beat came from provisioning mainly as the Bank released FLI provisions in the amount of EUR 200 mln in the Other Austria Segment. Risk cost was allocated mainly at savings banks due to SME and medium-sized real estate projects. NII declined 3% q-o-q due to moderately rising deposit pass-through rates, interest rate caps in ...
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: February mostly green, despite det...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
AUG1L AGROWILL GROUP AB
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
GSPARK GRAPHISOFT PARK SE
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
PBK PATRIA BANK SA
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE PLC
M MED LIFE
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
NLBR NLB GROUP
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
KSPI KASPI KZ
HUGE HUUUGE
4IG 4IG NYRT
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
WPS W.A.G PAYMENT SOLUTIONS PLC
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
ONE KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
KLKIM ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
ADNOCDRILL KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
AROBS ADNOC DRILLING CO
7202 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
ELPE ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
SHO HELLENIQ ENERGY
4071 SHOPER SA
BOROUGE ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
H2O BOROUGE
AQ HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
AQUILA PART PROD COM
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PBK RO; TL Macro; 4IG HB; AUG1L LH; ELPE GA; SFG RO; EAT P...
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line beat, but lacking quality • Turkey macro: 4Q GDP expands by 4% • 4iG: 4Q23 results review – solid results, with 19% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 4Q23 – positive gross profit in all segments, but liquidity risk on the horizon • HELLENiQ Energy: 4Q23 results – dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q23 above our expectations POSITIVE • AmRest: key takeaways from the 4Q23 call POSITIVE • Richter: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings ...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EBS AV; EAT PW; TXT PW; EL RO; WINE RO; AQ RO; SNN RO; TGN...
HEADLINES • Erste Bank: 4Q23 results • AmRest: 4Q23 EBITDA in line, but earnings affected by EUR 29m goodwill write-down for Sushi Shop NEGATIVE • Text: 3Q23-24 (calendar 4Q23) results – EBITDA down 4% yoy, 10% above the consensus POSITIVE • Electrica: 4Q23 results in line with expectations NEGATIVE • Purcari Wineries: 4Q23 results and 2024E outlook in line with expectations POSITIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com: earnings beat, on lower credit losses, interest income and tax rate POSITIVE • Nuclearel...
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
M MED LIFE
EAT AMREST HOLDINGS SE
IGN1L IGNITIS GRUPE
AROBS AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
4071 ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
AQ AQUILA PART PROD COM
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: SOLUTION AB; TLV RO; KSPI LI; AKCNS TI; H2O RO; ONE RO; AD...
HEADLINES: • Solutions by STC: M&A remain the main source of growth (stays HOLD) • Banca Transilvania: strong NII and NIM expansion in 4Q23 results POSITIVE • Kaspi.kz: 4Q23 highlights and 2024E guidance POSITIVE • Akcansa: 2023 financial results review NEUTRAL • Hidroelectrica: FY23 consolidated net profit 5% above preliminary figure (stand-alone) NEUTRAL • ONE United Properties: reaches EBITDA (excluding revaluations) of EUR 59m in 2023 NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: 2028 strategy update NEUTRA...
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
KSPI KASPI KZ
4IG 4IG NYRT
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
7202 ARABIAN INTERNET & COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES CO
ELPE HELLENIQ ENERGY
H2O HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
AQ AQUILA PART PROD COM
- Mihaly Gajda
MOL exceeded market consensus expectations in Q4
MOL demonstrated resilience, achieving an impressive Clean CCS EBITDA of HUF 354 bn, a 19% decrease Y-o-Y yet a 3% increase Q-o-Q. This result surpassed market expectations by 13%. The company's market outperformance was driven by strong operational performance in the Upstream segment, robust refining operations, and a recovering petrochemical market.
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Model update after Q4 earnings
We updated our model due to better 2023 results, better NII and risk cost outlook. While the Romanian reference rate is set to decline to below 6% this year, but NII could be higher compared to 2023 on stellar volumes and repricing could be slower on the asset side. Asset quality should stay benign but positive contribution to earnings is unlikely to be sustainable thus we project it to be 32bps and 47bps for 2024 and 2025, respectively. We also included the turnover tax for the 2024-2026 p...
- Hai Thanh Le Phuong
Sound Q4 results but dividend somewhat disappoints
BRD’s reported net income came to RON 425 mln in the fourth quarter, down by 8% q-o-q due to seasonally higher costs (+13% q-o-q) and lower Net F&C. NII was up by 5% quarterly thanks to lending volumes counterbalanced by partially higher amount of deposits thus this was the reason of stalling NIM at 3.5%. Operating expenses were also up by 13% q-o-q partially due to seasonality and 8% y-o-y. Amongst expense lines besides PEREX, other operating expenses also increased substantially (+15% y-o-...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: KOMB CP; MBK PW; BRD RO; PEO PW; APR PW; PL Macro; PPC GA
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: 2023 delivery brings positive surprise on two-year dividend outlook, yield at almost 11% • mBank: 2023 marked by active portfolio at risk coverage of 100% NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: 4Q23 results – strong results, with a 28% bottom-line beat vs. our expectations POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: hefty yield possible this year POSITIVE • Auto Partner: January sales growth recovers materially, to 22% yoy POSITIVE • Poland macro: MPC on hold • Public Power Corporation: EC proceeds with...
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