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Clement Genelot
  • Clement Genelot

Food Retail: Navigating stormy waters of deflation and price war

As food deflation risks increasingly diverge from one market to another, we take a fresh look at local price war risks and at the sector earnings cycle. We remain puzzled by the YTD sector derating and underperformance while FY 2024-25 expected EPS growth is still strong. Many investors seem to be

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 05/02/2024

BBVA proposes merging with Banco Sabadell to create a European leaderUnited Group: e& has considered a potential acquisition of United Group (Bloomberg)>...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 02/05/2024

BBVA propose à Sabadell une fusion afin de créer un leader européenUnited Group : e& envisagerait une possible acquisition de United Group (Bloomberg)>...

Clement Genelot
  • Clement Genelot

Food Retail: Leclerc's insolent outperf fuels risk of competitive irra...

Latest Kantar French market share data highlight a continued and surprising outperformance by Leclerc (+80bp) despite very tough comps vs. other independents and Lidl (slightly up) and vs. integrated groups (down 100bp). The wide gap between Leclerc and Intermarché, Systeme U and Lidl in a fast-dec

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 04/25/2024

Atos: weak Q1 2024 results, need for fresh funds has already increasedVerisure launches a new term loan; new bonds to followVerallia: Q1 2024 logically weak but the recovery in demand is confirmedAngloAmerican Plc: Takeover offer from BHP Group for the entire share capital>...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 25/04/2024

Atos : faibles résultats au T1 2024, les besoins de nouveaux fonds a augmentéVerisure lance un nouveau term loan ; des nouvelles obligations suivrontVerallia : T1 2024 logiquement faible mais la reprise de la demande se confirmeAngloAmerican PLC : Offre de rachat sur la totalité du capital par BHP>...

Charlotte Vaisse ... (+5)
  • Charlotte Vaisse
  • Emmanuel Matot
  • Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

Charlotte Vaisse ... (+5)
  • Charlotte Vaisse
  • Emmanuel Matot
  • Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
  • Konrad Zomer
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024

Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...

Geoffroy Michalet
  • Geoffroy Michalet

Carrefour : Decent Q1 sales, price adjustment policy in France funded ...

>Q1 2024: in line with forecasts - Yesterday evening, Carrefour published its sales figures for Q1 2024. Sales including tax were € 22.2bn, a slight 0.4% increase on a reported basis of which 13.5% l-f-l, broadly in line with expectations in France, relatively weak in Europe and a shade above in Latin America. Overall, as expected, the quarter was marked by the continued deceleration in food inflation and a volume effect still under pressure in Europe, to which sho...

Geoffroy Michalet
  • Geoffroy Michalet

Carrefour : CA T1 correct, politique d’ajustement de prix en France fi...

>T1 2024 : en ligne avec les attentes - Carrefour a publié hier soir ses ventes du T1 2024. Le CA TTC s’élève à 22,2 Md€, en légère hausse de 0.4% en données publiées dont 13.5% en LFL, globalement en ligne avec les attentes en France, assez faibles en Europe et un peu au-dessus au Latam. Globalement, le trimestre est sans surprise marqué par la poursuite de la décélération de l’inflation alimentaire et un effet volume toujours sous pression en Europe, auquel s’ajou...

Clement Genelot
  • Clement Genelot

Carrefour: slight miss in Q1, eyeing French EBIT growth despite price ...

After a soft Q1 missing expectations at the group-level excluding Argentina and in France, we welcome Carrefour's more proactive stance on its French price positioning (targeting a volume market share trend reversal) with ongoing waves of price cuts that should materialise throughout the year, fina

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 04/05/2024

Nexity obtains a waiver on its bank debt Clariane confirms that it is considering selling its HAD business in FranceSaur: in response to the sharp fall in results in 2023, S&P placed its BBB- rating on negative creditwatch and Fitch directly downgraded its rating to BB+.>...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 05/04/2024

Nexity obtient un waiver sur sa dette bancaire. Clariane confirme que le groupe envisage de céder son activité HAD en France.Saur : réagissant à la forte baisse des résultats en 2023, S&P a placé son rating BBB- sous creditwatch négatif et Fitch a directement abaissé sa note à BB+.>...

Clement Genelot
  • Clement Genelot

Carrefour: Brazilian recovery to save deteriorating France/Europe

Ahead of the Q1 release on 24th April, we have cut our FY 2024-26 estimates by

Clement Genelot
  • Clement Genelot

Food Retail: Leclerc closes a year of >100bp market share gains

With the latest French market share data highlighting the 12th consecutive month of material market share gains by independents (and especially Leclerc) vs. integrated groups, we expect the coming period to be key for gauging Leclerc's ability to continue to rise on tough comps. Leclerc's triumph c

Carrefour: 1 director

A director at Carrefour sold 25,000,000 shares at 14.604EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 77/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc: Update after publication of 2023 results

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its strong credit metrics and conservative financial policies, its geographical diversification and prospects for steady earnings growth

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 03/26/2024

Eutelsat offers € 600m of new 5NC2 unsecured notes to refinance the existing 2025 notes Carrefour acquires 3.5% of its capital from Galfa (Moulin family), its largest shareholder>...

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 26/03/2024

Eutelsat compte émettre 600 m EUR d’obligations 5NC2 afin de refinancer la souche 2025 Carrefour rachète 3,5% de son capital auprès de Galfa (famille Moulin), son premier actionnaire>...

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