EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: 1Q25 trading update – strong execution, rich options POSITIVE • Kruk: 1Q25 results, beat driven by Wonga, debt purchased segment in line, but slowing growth dynamics NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: rather weak 1Q25, but maintained outlook should provide some support NEGATIVE • Medicover: 1Q25 beat on admin costs and other financial income POSITIVE • Otokar: 1Q25 results – continuing losses on the operating and bottom lines • Tofas: weak set of results in 1Q25, as anti...
EME Equity Market – November 2024 Rebound in Türkiye, Romania hammered. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 3.8% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in November. The Turkish ISE30 recouped the losses of the previous month, adding 10.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX added 4.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the PX (+2.9% mom), the ASE (+0.8% mom) and the WIG (+0.8% mom) (all in EUR terms). Following the first round of presidential elections, and the polemic and uncertainty that ensued, the BET ...
HEADLINES: • Otokar: weak set of 3Q24 results NEGATIVE • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 3Q24 highlights – decent quarter, with revised guidance POSITIVE • Brisa: profitability should return in 4Q, on October price hikes NEUTRAL • Elm: strong 3Q24 financial results POSITIVE • Jahez: strong 3Q24 results POSITIVE • Alkaloid AD Skopje: strong 3Q24 sales and a qoq margin rebound POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 October-3 November) • Magyar Telekom: reaches agreement with the trade uni...
EME Equity Market – October 2024 A red October for the EME indices, only Czechia in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 6.0% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in October. The Czech PX index was the only one spared, adding 1.3% mom in EUR terms. Türkiye was battered the most, with the Turkish ISE30 declining by 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed closely by the Polish WIG20 (-6.7% mom in EUR terms). Greece fell 4.8% mom in EUR terms, while the Hungarian BUX index lost 2.7% mom i...
HEADLINES: • Otokar: Romania selects Otokar for its giant military vehicle project POSITIVE • Polish telecoms: UKE has launched the 700/800MHz auction NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: 3Q24 bookings up 6% qoq POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: 3Q24 bookings down 7% qoq NEUTRAL • GEK Terna: takes over the Attiki Odos road concession, all eyes now on Egnatia POSITIVE • CEZ: has reportedly contracted an order for a 70MW PV plant POSITIVE • GEVORKYAN: higher corporate tax rate approved by the government NEGATIVE •...
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • Banca Transilvania: NIM resilience and strong loan book expansion the key positives of 1Q24 bottom-line beat, on non-recurring revenue, low provisions and a one-off POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 1Q24 results – new venture and updated dividend policy POSITIVE • Otokar: lacklustre 1Q24 results, but strong backlog NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: 1Q24 results and conference call NEUTRAL • Elm: mixed 1Q24 financial results NEGATIVE • Isbank: 1Q24 highlights – margin pressure worsening • Polish banks: ...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Air Astana Group: a cash-accretive airline from the heart of Eurasia (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Elm: still a digital champion (stays HOLD) • PZU: reports solid 4Q23; high DPS potential POSITIVE • CEZ: misses on 4Q23 net profit, tepid 2024E guidance NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: strong 4Q23 beats expectations, but company trims 2024E guidance for card additions abroad NEUTRAL • Teknosa: mixed results in 4Q23 NEGATIVE • CA Immo: 4Q23 – all about the disposals POSITIVE • Brisa: 4Q2...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Purcari Wineries: growth uninterrupted (stays BUY) • Otokar: 3Q23 - strong beat, with accelerated deliveries and improved sales mix POSITIVE • Orange Polska: 3Q23 results - EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Kaspi.kz: 3Q23 highlights - strong quarter, with a boost from the marketplace POSITIVE • TeraPlast: 3Q23 results in line, FY23E EBITDA guidance lowered NEUTRAL • Polish banks: current government preparing draft bill on credit holiday extension into 2024E ...
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: awaiting the special dividend (stays BUY) • OMV Petrom: Executive Board proposes RON 0.045 special dividend • MONETA Money Bank: posts solid 2Q23 results and tweaks guidance up, mostly on lower CIT NEUTRAL • Akbank: 2Q23 - similar trends vs. Yapi Kredi and trading income makes up 50% of 2Q23 revenues • Tofas: strong beat in 2Q23 results, domestic sales guidance raised POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: 2Q23 EBITDA spot on expectations NEUTRAL • Otokar: 2Q23 results - improv...
EME Equity Market – April 2023 Market performance – in the black across all geographies, except for Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.9% mom in USD in April. The Polish WIG20 Index saw the biggest gains (+11.5% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+7.8% mom in EUR terms) and the Greek ASE Index (+2.9% mom in EUR terms). More muted performances were witnessed in the Czech PX Index and Romanian BET Index, both adding 1.7% mom in EUR terms for th...
HEADLINES: • mBank: bottom-line miss due to costs, but opportunity to BUY NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: books strong 1Q23 results, ahead of expectations, tweaks up FY23E guidance POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: neutral 1Q23 results - profit reported, capital still needs time to recover NEUTRAL • Otokar: 1Q23 results - miss on EBITDA and net income levels NEGATIVE • Tekfen Holding: weak 1Q23 results, due to margin hit in chemicals and one-off tax charge NEGATIVE • Garanti: 1Q23 highlights - better than expe...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • Kcell: new capex cycle ahead (downgraded to HOLD) • Santander Bank Polska: 4Q22 net profit in line, but hope for DPS potentially picking up POSITIVE • ING BSK: 4Q22 net profit in line with expectations, but softer on P&L mix • OMV Petrom: 4Q22 clean results in line, but upstream hit by RON 1.8bn unexpected impairments • OMV: 4Q22 results - net income well below expectations, big dividend proposal • US macro: Fed preparing the grounds for a pause • Garanti: 4Q22 highlights - 202...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
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