HEADLINES: • Banca Transilvania: NIM resilience and strong loan book expansion the key positives of 1Q24 bottom-line beat, on non-recurring revenue, low provisions and a one-off POSITIVE • ADNOC Drilling: 1Q24 results – new venture and updated dividend policy POSITIVE • Otokar: lacklustre 1Q24 results, but strong backlog NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: 1Q24 results and conference call NEUTRAL • Elm: mixed 1Q24 financial results NEGATIVE • Isbank: 1Q24 highlights – margin pressure worsening • Polish banks: ...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Air Astana Group: a cash-accretive airline from the heart of Eurasia (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Elm: still a digital champion (stays HOLD) • PZU: reports solid 4Q23; high DPS potential POSITIVE • CEZ: misses on 4Q23 net profit, tepid 2024E guidance NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: strong 4Q23 beats expectations, but company trims 2024E guidance for card additions abroad NEUTRAL • Teknosa: mixed results in 4Q23 NEGATIVE • CA Immo: 4Q23 – all about the disposals POSITIVE • Brisa: 4Q2...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Purcari Wineries: growth uninterrupted (stays BUY) • Otokar: 3Q23 - strong beat, with accelerated deliveries and improved sales mix POSITIVE • Orange Polska: 3Q23 results - EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Kaspi.kz: 3Q23 highlights - strong quarter, with a boost from the marketplace POSITIVE • TeraPlast: 3Q23 results in line, FY23E EBITDA guidance lowered NEUTRAL • Polish banks: current government preparing draft bill on credit holiday extension into 2024E ...
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
HEADLINES: • OMV Petrom: awaiting the special dividend (stays BUY) • OMV Petrom: Executive Board proposes RON 0.045 special dividend • MONETA Money Bank: posts solid 2Q23 results and tweaks guidance up, mostly on lower CIT NEUTRAL • Akbank: 2Q23 - similar trends vs. Yapi Kredi and trading income makes up 50% of 2Q23 revenues • Tofas: strong beat in 2Q23 results, domestic sales guidance raised POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: 2Q23 EBITDA spot on expectations NEUTRAL • Otokar: 2Q23 results - improv...
EME Equity Market – April 2023 Market performance – in the black across all geographies, except for Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.9% mom in USD in April. The Polish WIG20 Index saw the biggest gains (+11.5% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+7.8% mom in EUR terms) and the Greek ASE Index (+2.9% mom in EUR terms). More muted performances were witnessed in the Czech PX Index and Romanian BET Index, both adding 1.7% mom in EUR terms for th...
HEADLINES: • mBank: bottom-line miss due to costs, but opportunity to BUY NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: books strong 1Q23 results, ahead of expectations, tweaks up FY23E guidance POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: neutral 1Q23 results - profit reported, capital still needs time to recover NEUTRAL • Otokar: 1Q23 results - miss on EBITDA and net income levels NEGATIVE • Tekfen Holding: weak 1Q23 results, due to margin hit in chemicals and one-off tax charge NEGATIVE • Garanti: 1Q23 highlights - better than expe...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • Kcell: new capex cycle ahead (downgraded to HOLD) • Santander Bank Polska: 4Q22 net profit in line, but hope for DPS potentially picking up POSITIVE • ING BSK: 4Q22 net profit in line with expectations, but softer on P&L mix • OMV Petrom: 4Q22 clean results in line, but upstream hit by RON 1.8bn unexpected impairments • OMV: 4Q22 results - net income well below expectations, big dividend proposal • US macro: Fed preparing the grounds for a pause • Garanti: 4Q22 highlights - 202...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
HEADLINES: • Jeronimo Martins: strong 3Q22 on Biedronka's 23% lfl and accelerating EBITDA contribution from Ara NEUTRAL • MONETA Money Bank: 3Q22 results - irrelevant beat, reassurance needed on MREL issuance target xx NEUTRAL • Otokar: 3Q22 results - big miss due to pause in defence deliveries • Tekfen Holding: 3Q22 results - a mixed bag, with negative signals from the E&C segment NEGATIVE • Erdemir: 3Q22 results review - materially below expectations on EBITDA and bottom line NEGATIVE • Akb...
EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...
HEADLINES: • Erdemir: attractive dividend yield, offset by cost pressures (HOLD - reinitiation of coverage) • Titan Cement: recovering lost ground (stays BUY) • Erste Bank: posts very solid 2Q22 results and guidance mix POSITIVE • Otokar: 2Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Eurobank: strong 2Q22, guidance upgraded for 2022E • National Bank: another solid beat, with upside risks for 2022E forecasts • NLB Banka: 2Q22 results review - annualised ROE reaches as much as 20.8% • Zagreb Stock E...
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • PGNiG: Russia halts the flow of gas to Poland NEGATIVE • Alior Bank: disappointing 1Q22 delivery NEGATIVE • Aselsan: 1Q22 results - top-down beat, but management's guidance unchanged POSITIVE • Otokar: 1Q22 results - broadly in line, 12% NI beat POSITIVE • Zagreb Stock Exchange: 1Q22 results review - strong results, on high volumes traded in the quarter POSITIVE • TeraPlast: strong sales growth reported for 1Q22 POSITIVE • DataWalk: FY21 numbers fully in line with the preliminaries ...
EME Equity Market – March 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks mostly in the black, despite the MSCI EM Europe Index losing half of its value. Following its decline in February, the MSCI EM Europe Index lost in March as well, declining by 49.5% in EUR terms and 50.1% in USD terms. Russia’s MOEX Index added 13.2% in EUR terms and 9.4% RUB terms (we note that Russian companies’ GDRs are still suspended for trading). The Turkish ISE30 Index added 8.2% in EUR terms and 13.3% in local curren...
OTOKAR OTOBUS (TR), a company active in the Commercial Vehicles & Trucks industry, reduced its market risk and raised its general evaluation. The independent financial analyst theScreener awarded an improved star rating to the company, which now shows 4 out of 4 possible stars; its market behaviour has improved and can be considered as defensive. theScreener believes that this new assessment merits an overall rating upgrade to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date February 22, 2022, the clo...
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