Trumps reciprocal tariffs caused a massive blow to equity markets, following a pressured period of escalating trade wars. Retaliatory measures can further heavily damage market confidence, as seen Friday when China announced their 34% tarrif of US goods. International trade policies have never moved this erratic and untransparant, with uncertainty and volatility being the baseline for now. In this report we highlight the key stocks in our coverage relevant to this discussion.
In this April 2025 update of the KBC Securities' Dynamic Top Pick List, we are removing Gimv and adding Adyen. Since adding Gimv to the Dynamic Top Pick List in mid-December 2024, Gimv's performance has remained flat. However, month-to-date, it has increased by nearly 7%, while the indices have all declined. Given the backdrop of a tariff war brewing, we think it's time to remove Gimv from the Dynamic Top Pick List as medium-sized businesses are more likely to feel the pinch of lower demand and...
This note gathers feedback from the group meetings and the panels. In total 21 companies were presented in group meetings and/or panels. More than 100 guests found their way to the venue either physical or virtual (only panels). The 2 panels made for informative additions to the C-level meetings and a nice platform for discussion. Wednesday afternoon concentrated 4 experts from Logistic companies (CTP, Montea, VGP, WDP) for an interesting discussion on brownfields: " an answer to the scarcity of...
Arcadis: Large contract in Resilience. ASM International: Highlights from CFO roadshow. Exor: Exor buying back Exor shares. Fastned: 2H24 results, cost pressure. Flow Traders: February volumes elevated in EMEA. Montea: JV with Weerts in Belgium. Sligro: FY24 results in line, weak 1Q25 outlook. Sofina: Final NAV a tad higher. Umicore: CMD targets – no big bang
During FY24, Sofina's NAVps rose by almost 14% to €311.77 (vs €273.62 at FY23-end) mainly driven by the broader recovery across both PE and VC. Sofina Growth saw its valuation grow by 19.6% to ~€2.3b while Sofina Private Funds grew by 12.7% to ~4.7b. Net result came in at €1.36b (€40.9ps). Sofina will open an office in London and we think this will lead to new connections and eventually, unlock new co-investment opportunities alongside industry leading firms. Post closing, Sofina invested in Ber...
We publish our conference book with info on the panels, the graphs on the market and company profiles. European REITS suffered from macro and geo-political worries (logistics) Also, the European knee-jerk reaction on the bund (+60 bps) had a negative effect. We believe that despite these worries, REITS are a good place to hide, given their high visibility and proven growth potential in a tough environment. Our top-picks are Shurgard, WDP and Xior. SHUR and WDP have ample headroom on their balanc...
We made 5 changes in this March update of our KBC Securities Dynamic Top Pick List (DTPL): On 26 February we already removed ABN Amro from our DTPL, after a strong 24.4% return since the announcement of our 2025 Dynamic Top Pick List on 13 December 2024, far outpacing our financial sector coverage. Although we remain positive on the longer term, we believe most of the short-term revaluation is behind us. Today, we remove Ackermans & van Haaren as the stock just hit an all-time high and crossed...
1M Performance - Absolute: During Feb'25 (1M period), the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a return of +3.7% which was mainly driven by single-asset holdings (+11.1%) while multi-asset holdings posted a modest return of +0.5%. The 3 top performers during the period were Heineken Holding (+21.3%), KBC Ancora (+6.9%) and Ackermans & van Haaren (+4.4%) while the 3 worst performers were Financière de Tubize (-6.3%), Compagnie du Bois Sauvage (TINC; -6.6%) and Whitestone Group (-6.8%). YTD Performance...
We update our model after the annual results and the EUR 45.3m capital increase announced on Sunday. The capital increase and its timing was a surprise as the guidance on debt reduction of EUR 150.0m is realised and the adjusted operational performance in line with our estimates. The reason for the capital increase is linked to the EUR 65.0 bond repayments coming up in FY25 and to get more flexibility at the deal table. Atenor did not announce any new project sales since October (Lakeside, Warsa...
We update our valuation model, ahead of the publication of FY24 results on 26 March 2025. The January newsletter only provided preliminary unaudited NAV and information regarding changes in the portfolio, allowing us to make some adjustments and with fine-tuning to follow at the end of March. The most important transactions and recent information regarding some of the main shareholdings include: (1) NAV at YE24 is estimated at €307 per share, up 12.2% YoY, (2) Ongoing momentum in sourcing and in...
Sofina announced that it has acquired a 16.07% stake in Proeduca, a listed Spanish online higher education provider with operations across Spain, Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, and the US. Proeduca offers more than 375 bachelor's and master's programs, doctoral programs, other courses and provides its services to thousands of students in over 90 countries. As part of the transaction Portobello Capital (€3b AuM) acquired a 8.0% stake, with the option to increase its stake to 14.34%. So...
Aalberts: Dividend and outlook better than expected. Ackermans & van Haaren: Anticipating an all-time-high result from core segments. Ageas: FY24 in line, strong capital, outlook for upsteams. AMG: Strong 4Q24 beat and 2025F guidance upgrade. CFE: Solid results and balance sheet, outlook weak. CMB.TECH: Cautious on outlook. Corbion: Not so sweet. CTP: Good results, 2025 outlook realistic. D'Ieteren: Boyd's Five-Year Goals. Exor: Ferrari €3bn ABB and €1bn SBB. Sofina: Further ...
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