reports
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Alfen: Preview - muddling through? Belgian telcos: Competition Authority investigation on Proximus/Orange Belgium MoU. Brunel International: 2Q25 below, 3Q25 outlook cut, cost savings protect FY25 estimates. Euronext: Another record set of results. Fugro: Sharper V-shape? GBL: Weak NAV performance, as expected. KBC Ancora: Cooperative CERA increasing its stake to 51.24%, using excess cash. UCB: Renewed US threats to cut drug prices. Umicore: 1H25 and guide broadly in-line, new S...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
UCB - Still Plenty of Upside – PT up to €270 (BUY, TP €270 [250], 8pgs...
We upgrade our 2026 Bimzelx sales to be €0.9bn higher than consensus with conservative assumptions & and are now 11% above consensus on 2026 group sales & 19% on EBITDA. We upgrade our already above-consensus ‘27 EBITDA by 5%. Using our proprietary product-by-product Contribution Analysis, we show that the gross margin is highly sensitive to Bimzelx growth. We analyse the galvokimig data, which looks very strong Vs Dupi. Whilst UCB pipeline readouts & Moonlake risk will dominate specialists’ tho...
- Jacob Mekhael
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
- Thomas Zlowodzki
V1S ARKEMA
LHN HOLCIM AG
LHA DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
AC ACCOR SA
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
IPN IPSEN SA
RR. ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS PLC
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
DG VINCI SA
UBSN UBS GROUP AG
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
ADP AEROPORTS DE PARIS SA
DGE DIAGEO PLC
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
RNO RENAULT SA
LI KLEPIERRE SA
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
DAI DAIMLER AG
EN BOUYGUES SA
LSEG LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE GROUP PLC
OMV OMV AG
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
SAN SANOFI
SAF SAFRAN S.A.
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
AIR AIRBUS SE
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
UCB UCB S.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
BA. BAE SYSTEMS PLC
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
PRY PRYSMIAN S.P.A.
ANDR ANDRITZ AG
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
ABI BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
RIO ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
LDO RIO TINTO PLC
SNP LEONARDO SPA
ARGX PETROM S.A.
SHL ARGEN-X SE
ULA SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
KBX UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
NEXI KNORR-BREMSE AG
FDJ NEXI S.P.A.
SHEL LA FRANCAISE DES JEUX SA
P911 SHELL PLC
DSFIR DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ARM KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
TEN ARM HOLDINGS PLC
SYENS TENARIS S.A.
AAL SYENSQO
ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
- Louis Boujard
- CFA
- Philippe Ourpatian
V1S ARKEMA
LHN HOLCIM AG
LHA DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
AC ACCOR SA
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
IPN IPSEN SA
RR. ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS PLC
EDP EDP-ENERGIAS DE PORTUGAL SA
DG VINCI SA
UBSN UBS GROUP AG
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
ADP AEROPORTS DE PARIS SA
DGE DIAGEO PLC
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
RNO RENAULT SA
LI KLEPIERRE SA
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
DAI DAIMLER AG
EN BOUYGUES SA
LSEG LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE GROUP PLC
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
SAN SANOFI
SAF SAFRAN S.A.
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
AIR AIRBUS SE
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
UCB UCB S.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
BA. BAE SYSTEMS PLC
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
ACS ACTIVIDADES DE CONSTRUCCION Y SERVICIOS SA
PRY PRYSMIAN S.P.A.
ANDR ANDRITZ AG
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
ABI BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
RIO ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
LDO RIO TINTO PLC
SNP LEONARDO SPA
ARGX PETROM S.A.
SHL ARGEN-X SE
ULA SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
KBX UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD SE STAPLED SECS CONS OF 1 SH UNIBAIL RODAMCO + 1 SH WFD UNIB ROD
NEXI KNORR-BREMSE AG
FDJ NEXI S.P.A.
SHEL LA FRANCAISE DES JEUX SA
P911 SHELL PLC
DSFIR DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ARM KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
TEN ARM HOLDINGS PLC
SYENS TENARIS S.A.
AAL SYENSQO
ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
- Jacob Mekhael
UCB 1H25 earnings beat driven by Bimzelx, raises FY25 guidance
UCB's growth continues with 1H25 earnings increasing to € 3.49b, beating CSS expectations by approx. 8%. We note that Bimzelx performed significantly higher vs. expectations bringing in € 799m (CSS: € 615m) continuing its solid growth momentum. The company updated its FY25 guidance to revenue of at least € 7b based on a strong outlook for the remainder of the year. We reiterate our €214 TP and Accumulate.
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
AB InBev: 2Q25 results. Air France-KLM: Nice beat, let's see how FY25 finishes. AMG: Uptrend continues in 2Q25 with 23% EBITDA beat and guidance up to +US$200m. Aperam: Slight 2Q25 EBITDA beat, 3Q25 seen down QoQ. Arcadis: EBITA margin held up well in 2Q25, order intake mixed. Ayvens: 2Q25 results. Azelis: Soft but largely in-line 2Q25 with EMEA offsetting weaker APAC. Bekaert: 1H25 miss and lowered outlook to result in c.5% consensus downside. Corbion: Taking it to the wire. dsm...
APAML APERAM SA
FAGR FAGRON SA
UCB UCB S.A.
AF AIR FRANCE-KLM SA
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
ONTEX ONTEX GROUP N.V.
CSM CORBION NV
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
ALD ALD SA
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
FLOW FLOW TRADERS LTD
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
SYENS SYENSQO
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Aalberts: Light 1H performance, lowers FY25 outlook. Acomo: Hot chocolate. BAM Group: Solid 1H25 performance. BE Semiconductor Industries: 2Q25 results, light at the end of the tunnel. Econocom: 1H25 REBITA in line, net profit hit by €18m loss on discontinued. Orange Belgium: Better 1H25, guidance increased but MSA hurt perception. RELX: 1H25 results – powering ahead. UCB: 1H25 Preview: focus on US expansion.
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Ahold Delhaize: 2Q25 pre-close call feedback. Azelis: Attractive acquisition in personal care Italy. Econocom: Two UK/Ireland AV acquisitions disclosed. Staffing: Better French volumes in May even with easier comps, June outlook sluggish. Staffing: Dutch figs Period 6 volume and revenues weaker on tougher comps. UCB: Trump threatens a 200% tariff on pharmaceutical products
- ING Helpdesk
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Thomas Vranken
UCB FIRST LOOK: Fintepla scores Phase 3 win in third epileptic indicat...
UCB announced positive Phase 3 results for Fintepla in treating CDKL5 deficiency disorder (CDD), a rare and severe early-onset epileptic condition with limited treatment options. The randomized, placebo-controlled study in patients aged 1–35 met its primary and secondary endpoints, showing a significant reduction in countable motor seizures and a favourable safety profile. UCB plans to announce the full dataset at an upcoming conference and seek regulatory approval promptly. This marks Fintepla'...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
UCB - Bimzelx Consensus for 2025 Too Low
We are 28% above cons. US Bimzelx sales for H125 with Bimzelx sales momentum being the most important factor for the UCB investment thesis. Unlike the early days for US obesity, this is one of the most complex dynamics we have contended with when forecasting sales. There are multiple unknowns that we have sought to model (net price per scrip, net avg. price by indication, 2024 volume, volume growth by payer & incremental discounts to unlock that volume growth). As a result of our analysis, we in...
- ING Helpdesk
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Lewi
Dollar Weakness The impact on our Benelux Coverage
In general, a weaker USD has a negative impact on Benelux stocks, particularly for companies with significant exports to the US. In this note we selected a list of companies with high US export exposure and we examine the potential impact on FY25 earninings. On top of the weak dollar, rising trade tensions or the introduction of tariffs further harm Benelux exporters. As the dollar depreciates against the euro, European goods become costlier for American consumers. At the same time, revenues ear...
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
SOLB SOLVAY SA
UCB UCB S.A.
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SIP SIPEF GROUP
SOF SOFINA SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
ARCAD ARCADIS NV
ROYAL VOPAK NV
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
MELE MELEXIS NV
KIN KINEPOLIS GROUP NV
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
ARGX ARGEN-X SE
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ADYEN ADYEN NV
BAR BARCO NV
FUR FUGRO NV
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
AGN AEGON N.V.
SYENS SYENSQO
- Thomas Vranken
UCB FIRST LOOK: Expansion of US biologics manufacturing capacity
UCB has announced plans to build a new state-of-the-art biologics manufacturing facility in the US, which today accounts for 55% of its revenues. The investment, estimated at $ 2bn over 6–7 years, is expected to generate a $ 5bn economic impact, including 300 permanent and > 500 construction jobs. This move aligns UCB with other major pharma players expanding US operations and may help mitigate risks from potential US import tariffs on pharmaceuticals. Additionally, UCB will strengthen its partn...
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