reports
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: EMEA Airlines; TKFEN TI; ASELS TI; PEN CP; TEL RO; SNN RO;...
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: 7M22 traffic, strong travel demand driving fares, cheaper fuels leading to a share re • Tekfen: 2Q22 - strong beat, driven by long expected recovery in E&C margins POSITIVE • Aselsan: 2Q22 results - top down beat, but no guidance upgrade POSITIVE • Photon Energy: 2Q22 results review - strong beat, FY guidance hiked POSITIVE • Transelectrica: 2Q22 net profit 44% below our expectations NEUTRAL • Nuclearelectrica: 2Q22 net profit 23% below our expectations • DIGI Comm...
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
ENKAI ENKA INSAAT VE SANAYI A.S.
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
BIZIM BIZIM TOPTAN SATIS MAGAZALARI AS
SISE TURKIYE SISE VE CAM FABRIKALARI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
LTS GRUPA LOTOS S.A.
TKFEN TEKFEN HOLDING
POSR POZAVAROVALNICA SAVA
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
BVB S.C. BURSA DE VALORI BUCURESTI S.A.
NLBR NLB GROUP
PEN PHOTON ENERGY NV
- Research Team
WOOD Flash – Lotos: delisted as a result of the merger – coverage disc...
Lotos has been delisted, due to the merger with PKN Orlen. Due to this, we are discontinuing coverage of Lotos, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on this stock.
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ING PW; PEO PW; ALE PW; TPEIR GA; ONE RO; TL Macro; PKN PW...
HEADLINES: • ING BSK: books miss in 2Q22, long-term outlook untouched, weak short-term headline earnings NEGATIVE • Bank Pekao: weaker-than-expected 2Q22 headline EPS, but results include lots of one-off charges NEGATIVE • Allegro: 2Q22 preliminary results in line for core business, but Mall Group disappoints NEGATIVE • Piraeus Bank: solid 2Q22, extreme discount vs. peers POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: raises EUR 52m in capital increase, vs. c.EUR 90m target, priced at 2.2x P/B POSITIVE • Tur...
MOL MOL NYRT
BIMAS BIM BIRLESIK MAGAZALAR A.S.
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
EREGL EREGLI DEMIR YE CELIK FABRIKALARI T.A.S.
AST ASTARTA HOLDING
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
LTS GRUPA LOTOS S.A.
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
INPST INPOST S.A.
ALR ALRO SLATINA
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: markets mostly up in July, amid a ...
EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...
GARAN TURKIYE GARANTI BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
YNDX YANDEX NV CLASS A
CEZ CEZ AS
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
OMV OMV AG
PGN POLSKIE GORNICTWO NAFTOWE I GAZOWNICTWO SA
TITK TITAN CEMENT CO. SA
WIZZ WIZZ AIR HOLDINGS PLC
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
TENERGY TERNA ENERGY S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
POLY POLYMETAL INTERNATIONAL PLC
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
LTS GRUPA LOTOS S.A.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
DAT DATAWALK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
BANK OF CYPRUS PCL
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BELA JUMBO S.A.
SAB1L SIAULIU BANKAS
KMB KOMERCIJALNA BANKA AD SKOPJE
TRP TERAPLAST
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
ADPL-R-A AD PLASTIK D.D.
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
PLZL POLYUS (GDR)
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
ZB-R-A ZAGREBACKA BURZA DD
NLBR NLB GROUP
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
ARNT-R-A ARENATURIST D.D.
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
PEN PHOTON ENERGY NV
FINT MINING AND METALLURGICAL COMPANY NORILSK NICKEL (GDR)
ALG FINTEL ENERGIJA
KSPI ALLEGRO.EU SA
TNB KASPI KZ
HUGE NLB BANKA
ALR HUUUGE
IGN1L ALRO SLATINA
SHO IGNITIS GRUPE
PCO SHOPER
PINK PEPCO GROUP NV
KCEL PILULKA LEKARNY AS
GPP KCELL JSC
GRUPA PRACUJ DA
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 26.07.2022
EU: Oil&Gas/Utilities - Russia cuts gas deliveries to Europe via Nord Stream I (positive/negative) PL: Bank Millennium - Q2 broadly in line with expectations, further progress in own FX mortgage agreements, guided Tier 1 at 110-174 bps below minimum due to upfront booking of loan holidays in Q3 (neutral) RO: BRD-GSG, Banca Transilvania - The lending activity recorded positive growth rates in June (neutral) SI: NLB Group - Pre-earnings call points to solid performance in Q2 (neutral)
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: KAP LI; EU Macro; TL Macro; UZ Macro; PKN PW; PGN PW; POLY...
HEADLINES: • Kazatomprom: radiant future (stays BUY) • Europe macro: ECB paves the way for quicker normalisation • Turkey macro: CBRT keeps policy rate on hold at 14.00% • Uzbekistan macro: CBU cuts policy rate by 100bps, to 15% • PKN Orlen: explosion at the Litvinov refinery • PGNiG: 2Q22 operating estimates • Polymetal: 2Q22 production results - sales down materially, cash cost guidance could be hiked NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: enters JV with HB Reavis and sells 50% stake in two Port Pra...
FOYRK FOURLIS HOLDINGS S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
MYTIL MYTILINEOS S.A.
POLY POLYMETAL INTERNATIONAL PLC
LTS GRUPA LOTOS S.A.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 21.07.2022
AT: BAWAG Group - Q2 22 net profit marginally ahead of consensus and RBIe / 2022 ROE target of >17% confirmed and greenlight for the share buyback by ECB (positive) DE: Encavis - Encavis Asset Management acquired 21.8 MW wind park in Germany (neutral) EU: Gas supply - Gas flows through Nord Stream I resumed at 40% capacity (neutral) PL: Bank Millennium - Rating downgrade by Moody's due to capital risk (negative) PL: Consumer discretionary - Shopping malls record a 1.4% increase in footfall in J...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: CEZ CP; FINT SG; IGN1L LH; PEN CP; LTS PW; ALR RO; TRP RO;...
HEADLINES: • CEE utilities: pricing in the windfall taxes (CEZ, Fintel Energija, Ignitis Group and Photon Energy stay BUY) • Lotos: EGM passes motion to merge with PKN Orlen • Alro: shutting down alumina plant temporarily NEUTRAL • TeraPlast: 2Q22E results preview (due on 25 July) • OMV: 2Q22E results preview (due on 28 July) • OMV Petrom: 2Q22E results preview (due on 28 July) • Titan Cement: 2Q22E - gradual recovery (due on 28 July) • Benefit Systems: 2Q22E EBIT expected to be above pre-p...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: PKN PW; LTS PW; POLY LN; PLZL LI; SAB1L LH
HEADLINES: • Polish oil & gas: you can't have one, without the other (PKN Orlen stays BUY, Grupa Lotos upgraded to BUY) • Polymetal: considering potential disposal of Russian assets POSITIVE • Polyus/Polymetal: ban of Russian gold imports to the EU could be approved formally today NEGATIVE • Siauliu Bankas: 2Q22E results preview (due on 29 July) • Short News (EL, FP, TEL)
- Jonathan Lamb
- Ondrej Slama
Polish Oil & Gas: you can’t have one, without the other (PKN Orlen sta...
Whether investors buy PKN Orlen (PKN) or Grupa Lotos (Lotos) at this point, we expect them to end up owning shares in the same, combined company. The purpose of this report is to assess the benefits of such ownership, as well as determining which set of shareholders gets the better deal. We believe there is more unrealised value in Lotos, and that its balance sheet should strengthen PKN’s. With the share swap price now fixed, we view Lotos as offering the better value of the two. PKN remains a B...
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 19.07.2022
AT: FACC - Order for the supply of key parts for urban air mobility aircraft (positive) HU: OTP - Closing of Albanian acquisition (neutral) PL: Dino - Dino to issue PLN 170 mn in 4Y bonds (neutral) PL: Lotos, PKN - EC cleared the acquisition of Lotos Paliwa by MOL (neutral)
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 18.07.2022
AT: S IMMO - Publication of takeover offer document and start of initial acceptancec period (neutral) HR: Macro - Croatia's rating adjustments completed after upgrade from Moody's PL: Banks - Sector wide profit warnings from credit vacation bill and other effects (negative) PL: PKN, Lotos - PKN and Aramco evaluating large-scale petchem projects in Gdansk (neutral) RO: Fiscal Code - The Romanian government has adopted tax increases for dividends and the HoReCa industry (negative) RO:...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: LTS PW; LWB PW; CEZ CP; MTELEKOM HB; PLZL LI
HEADLINES: • Lotos: announces conditional dividend distribution POSITIVE • Bogdanka: Treasury kicks off acquisition of Enea's shares • CEZ: announces acquisition of Skoda JS, its major nuclear fleet supplier • Magyar Telekom: acquires fibre network covering 110k access points for HUF 6.95bn NEUTRAL • Polyus: buys 100% stake in Chulbatkan gold deposit from Highland Gold Mining POSITIVE • Short News (SNP, SNG, TGN)
- Jonathan Lamb
- Ondrej Slama
European Oil and Gas Monthly: May 2022
Oil prices continue to expand, reaching USD 122.8 at the end of May and averaging USD 112/bbl during the month. Rising consumption and the loss of Russian barrels are the culprits, in our view. OPEC has agreed to increase production by more than planned previously, but this has been insufficient to make an impact. Refiners enjoyed record margins again this month, with the WOOD benchmark hitting USD 24.8/bbl, another USD 5.0/bbl increase. Until April, diesel was the driver of margins, but althoug...
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 03.06.2022
WIG20/WIG30 indices review - No change in constituents AT: OMV - OMV received a binding offer for the acquisition of Borealis' nitrogen business (positive) Oil&Gas: OPEC+ meeting - OPEC to accelerate oil production in July and August PL: PKN/Lotos - Lotos and PKN agreed on a share swap ratio, merger finalization aimed for August (neutral/positive) RU: Moscow Exchange - May trading volumes 5% up yoy, no statistics on account balances (neutral)
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: Greek Oil & Gas (MOH GA, ELPE GA stay BUYs), PKN PW/LTS PW...
HEADLINES: • Greek Oil & Gas: a cracking good market (Motor Oil Hellas and Hellenic Petroleum stay BUYs) • PKN Orlen and Grupa Lotos agree on the merger price • Romania macro: 1% tax on turnover for companies with sales above EUR 100m again in discussions • OMV Petrom: the Energy Ministry is planning to sell 0.67% of the company to former Petrom employees • Romgaz: new wells put into operation, generating 230kcm/day, or 1.7% of 2021 production NEUTRAL • Kofola: 1Q22 conference call takeaway...
- Jonathan Lamb
WOOD Flash – PKN Orlen and Grupa Lotos agree on the merger price
PKN Orlen and Grupa Lotos have announced that they have agreed on the terms of the merger. Lotos shareholders will be offered 1.075 PKN shares for each Lotos share that they own. Based on yesterday’s closing price (2 June), this values Lotos at a 9% premium. PKN plans to issue 199m new shares for the transaction and Lotos shareholders would own 32% of the merged entity. The State Treasury share of the merged company would be 35.7%. Management expects the deal to be concluded in August, but this ...
Oil&Gas Sector News - EU agrees to ban most of Russian oil imports
What has been agreed? After weeks of difficult negotiations, the EU members have finally agreed on an embargo on Russian crude oil and refined products. Below is a summary of what has been agreed: -Banning purchases of seaborne crude oil over the next six months (ca. 70% of Europes imports from Russia in 2021). -Banning purchases of seaborne refined products over the next eight months (ca. 100% of Russias export of refined products to Europe). -Providing temporary exempts for imports of pipelin...
Oil Market Bulletin - Demand concerns to help avoid new oil price shoc...
Oil market remains tight amid OPECs unwillingness (inability?) to increase supply more quickly EUs proposed oil embargo to be implemented gradually Russian oil production might decline by >30% by year-end A slowdown in the recovery of oil demand should help keep the oil market in balance and prevent new price shocks
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 12.05.2022
AT: Verbund - Soaring Q1 results, but only in line adjusted for hedging, lower end of guidance range lifted as expected (neutral) AT: Wienerberger - Q1 results confirmed strong trading statement a month ago, confident wording on Q2 trading conditions, FY EBITDA guidance again reiterated (neutral) CEE: Banks - UniCredit in talks to sell Russia DE: Encavis - Final Q1 22 results in line with very strong preliminaries, FY 22 guidance confirmed (neutral) HU: Magyar Telekom - Upbeat Q1 22 p...
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
PGN POLSKIE GORNICTWO NAFTOWE I GAZOWNICTWO SA
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
MTELEKOM MAGYAR TELEKOM TELECOMMUNICATIONS
WIE WIENERBERGER AG
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
LTS GRUPA LOTOS S.A.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
EONR UNIPRO
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
SNP PETROM S.A.
UNCFF UNICREDIT S.P.A.
NLBR NOVA LJUBLJANSKA BANKA DD LJUBLJANA
CAP ENCAVIS AG
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