GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales rebound wow but remain low due to wait-and-see sentiment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Renewable Energy: Solar energy equipment: Policy-driven installation rush to support prices; milder module shipment growth in 2025. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$120.90/Target: HK$150.00): 3QFY25: CMR beat; all-in AI; capex in next three years to exceed that of the past decade. Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK...
4Q24: Misses Expectations But Delivers Steady Profitability Kossan reported commendable 4Q24 core numbers. The earnings strength mainly stemmed from higher volume sales, a sustainable ASP uptrend, and a positive backdrop from escalating US-China trade tensions. Nevertheless, forex headwinds and higher operating costs dampened gloves margins in 4Q24. Moving into 2025, we assess potential earnings softening in 1Q25, but remain positive on the full-year outlook and better capital management. Upgrad...
A director at Kossan Rubber Industries Berhad bought 1,000,000 shares at 1.973MYR and the significance rating of the trade was 61/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the la...
Alpha Picks: Spotlight On The Upcoming Results Winners Our Alpha Picks modestly outperformed the FBMKLCI’s worse-than-expected plunge in Jan 25 (-4.0% vs -5.2%). While we expect external headwinds to continue to soften, our Feb 25 picks continue to focus predominantly on winners in the upcoming results season, albeit with reduced indirect exposure to AI/DC plays. 2025 picks: Gamuda, GENM, Kossan, MrDIY, MYEG, Pekat, RHB Bank, RGB, VSI and Yinson.
A New, Different Beginning While the Malaysian gloves sector charted an impressive turnaround in 2024 after the COVID-19 lows as expected, risk-reward appears less appealing currently as valuations are trading close to the historical mean based on 2025’s full earnings recovery. Despite more optimism emerging following better operating matrixes and several rounds of catch-up upgrades by consensus, we believe that these have been fairly reflected in the recent share price movement. Downgrade to MA...
3Q24: Commendable Capital Management As Expected Kossan reported a decline in its 3Q24 core numbers. The earnings weakness mainly stemmed from unprecedented forex headwinds and higher input costs, dragging overall margins in 3Q24. Nevertheless, key catalysts such as higher volume sales, a sustainable ASP uptrend, and the positive backdrop from escalating US-China trade tensions will continue to support a sequential earnings uptick moving forward. In view of its better capital management, we main...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Mainly stable except for weakness in real estate. Results Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$87.20/Target: HK$130.00) 2QFY25: Seeking high quality growth and gradual monetisation. CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/HOLD/HK$5.13/Target: HK$5.50) 9M24: Disappointing results; targets positive revenue growth in 2025. JD Logistics, Inc (2618 HK/BUY/HK$14.16/Target: HK$22...
US Raises China Gloves Tariffs In Protectionism, Trade Rivalries A further precipitous tariff hike and earlier implementation timeline announced by the US authority on China’s medical-grade gloves are poised to revitalise investors’ sentiment on the Malaysian glove sector. With the sector’s post-pandemic recovery eclipsing earnings amid demand moderation, domestic glovemakers should progressively reclaim market share from China, sustaining concrete ASP trajectories and margin upticks. Maintain O...
2Q24: Temporary Hiccups Kossan’s 2Q24 numbers were weaker qoq and below expectations, albeit operationally profitable. The deviation mainly stemmed from shipment delays and higher input costs, dragging both sales volume and margins in 2Q24. Nevertheless, we think that these headwinds are temporary, and remain hopeful on 2H24-2025’s sequential orderbook uptick, sustainable ASP trend, and tailwinds from escalating US-China trade tensions. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of RM2.42.
GREATER CHINA Results AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/HK$31.25/Target: HK$38.10): 1H24: Solid beat on margins; multiple growth trends through 2H24-2026. Upgrade to BUY. AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/ HK$54.45/Target: HK$91.00): 1H24: Strong beat in results; eyeing 9-11% three-year CAGR for OPAT per share. Baidu Inc (9888 HK/BUY/HK$86.45/Target: HK$110.00): 2Q24: Earnings beat; modest online ad growth; solid AI cloud revenue growth. Country Garden Services (6098 HK/SELL/HK$4.15/Target: HK$3.70): 1H24: Exp...
Blooming In Spring The Malaysian glove sector is officially out of the woods with anticipation of sequential earnings growth coming into fruition throughout 2024. We have also observed a feasible trend of improving operating statistics from the past few quarters. With this and the US’ precipitous tariff hike on China’s medical-grade gloves beginning 2026, we re-affirm our optimism that potential valuation re-rating may continue to catalyse the sector’s positive share price trajectories. Maintain...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: EV sales pull back last week. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Tuopu and Joyson Electronics. Top SELLs: XPeng. Internet Strategic revamp to foster re-accelerating growth and shareholders’ return. INDONESIA Update Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ/BUY/Rp1,240/Target: Rp1,700) ...
1Q24: Smaller But Mightier Kossan reported a second consecutive quarter of core earnings in 1Q24. The weaker qoq results reflect margin contraction amid weaker sales volume and higher input costs. While glove volume sales appear flattish as customers’ inventory replenishment activities stabilise, we expect this demand and earnings trend to sustain through 2024. Nevertheless, the exceptionally strong share price movement has fairly priced in the upside. Maintain BUY and target price of RM1.82.
Selective Exporters With Exposure To Related Strategic Sectors To Benefit Further From The Latest Round Of Tariff Hikes We believe the latest round of tariff hikes directed by the US president Joe Biden will lend further strength to selective Malaysian exporters given Malaysia’s geographical neutrality. A statement released by The White House stated that following an in-depth review by the United States Trade Representative, President Biden is taking action to protect American workers and Americ...
Plot Twist From Escalating US-China Trade Tension The precipitous tariff hike announced by US authorities on China’s medical-grade gloves beginning 2026 is poised to revitalise investors’ sentiment on the Malaysian glove sector. While the sector’s recovery plot continues to thicken beyond postpandemic eclipsing earnings and demand moderation, we anticipate domestic glovemakers to progressively reclaim market share from China, sustaining concrete ASP trajectories and future margin upticks. Mainta...
4Q23: Remains In The Black Kossan reported a second consecutive quarter of core earnings in 4Q23. Numbers are weaker qoq, reflecting margin contraction amid weaker sales volume and higher input costs. While glove volume sales appear flattish as customers’ inventory replenishment activities stabilise, we anticipate such demand and earnings trend to be sustainable throughout 2024. Nevertheless, the exceptionally strong share price movement has fairly priced in upside. Maintain HOLD and target pric...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: BYD’s price cuts trigger a new round of price war between EVs and ICE-cars. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELLs: BYD, XPeng and Li Auto. Top BUY: CATL. Results Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$13.80/Target: HK$17.99): 2023: In-line results with lower DPS; higher growth visibility of retail in 2024. Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK$8.84/Target: HK$10.50): 3QFY24: Solid results; recovery in FY25 could be slower than expected. Trip.com (9961 HK/BUY/HK$331.40/Target: H...
Overhyped Market Expectations Pose Short-term Downside Risk As expected, the sector’s recovery plot continues to thicken after delivering resilient earnings growth in 3Q23. While more optimism is emerging following better operating matrixes and consensus’ rounds of catch-up upgrades, we deem these to be fairly reflected in the recent aggressive share price movement. Risk-reward appears unappealing currently as valuations are trading close to historical means based on 2025’s full earnings recover...
3Q23: Back In The Black Kossan turned around its core losses in 3Q23 despite ASPs declining marginally, reflecting margin expansion amid better sales volume, product mix and lower input costs. Positively, sales volume also saw a better recovery following customers’ inventory replenishment activities, which we deem sustainable in 4Q23-1H24. We anticipate better earnings in sequential quarters, anchored by higher volume sales and better utilisation rates. Upgrade to BUY with a higher target price ...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: Stronger retail sales in Oct 23, but FAI stays weak. Initiate Coverage Longfor Group Holdings (960 HK/BUY/HK$13.04/Target: HK$17.68): Leading developer and TOD mall operator in China’s Tier 1 and 2 cities. Results JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$105.90/Target: HK$186.00): 3Q23: Tempered top-line growth; 4Q23 outlook to be anchored by resilient 11.11 performance. Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$322.60/Target: HK$425.00): 3Q23: Earnings beat driven by meaningful m...
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