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Bruno Cavalier ... (+4)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Louis Boujard
  • CFA
  • Philippe Ourpatian

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 21/03/2024

After very strong results during 2021 and 2022 on the back of industry tailwinds due to supply chain disruptions, IMCD maintained a relatively steady operating performance over 2023 despite a clear normalisation of end-market demand within Industries. Notwithstanding these industry pressures, IMCD was able to offset the negative organic growth over 2023 (-6.4%) with its acquisitory power, stabilising growth for the year (excl. FX impact). We believe that IMCD is ready to resume its up...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Rheinmetall AG : Opinion Neutre vs Surperformance. Excellente dynamiqu...

>Neutre vs Surperformance – OC relevé à 520 € - Suite au fort relèvement de nos estimations (20.9% en 2024 y compris rattrapage des 420 M€ de ventes manquantes en 2023, 23% en 2025 et 33.9% en 2026), nous relevons notre OC à 520 € (basé sur une moyenne DCF et SOP 2026). Toutefois, après une progression de 63% YtD contre +27% pour notre indice Défense Europe, le potentiel du titre nous semble aujourd’hui plus limité. Le consensus a désormais intégré une forte accéléra...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Rheinmetall AG : Neutral vs Outperform – Excellent commercial momentum...

>Neutral vs Outperform – target price raised to € 520 - Following the sharp upward revision to our estimates (20.9% in 2024 including the catch-up of € 420m in missing sales in 2023, 23% in 2025 and 33.9% in 2026), we are raising our target price to € 520 (based on an average of the DCF and SOTP for 2026). However, after growth of 63% YTD vs +27% for our Europe Defence index, the stock’s upside now looks more limited to us. The consensus has now factored in a sharp ...

Rheinmetall AG: 2 directors

A director at Rheinmetall AG sold 10,350 shares at 474.057EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Baptiste Salaville ... (+4)
  • Baptiste Salaville
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/14/2024

Banks tick all the boxes in the market’s current configuration: search for discounted sectors, cyclical momentum, sectors driven by long-term interest rates that remain high and shareholder returns through very high dividend yields. Technical analysis reveals a strong conviction since early March, and this should continue. We prefer banks in southern Europe, where the macro outlook is brighter. Alongside CaixaBank, which we are maintaining in our list of European Large Cap stocks, we ...

Baptiste Salaville ... (+4)
  • Baptiste Salaville
  • Benoit Valleaux
  • Steven Gould
  • Thomas Zlowodzki

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 14/03/2024

Les banques cochent toutes les cases de la configuration de marché actuelle : recherche de secteurs décotés, momentum cyclique, secteurs portés par des taux longs qui restent hauts, retour à l’actionnaire via un très haut dividend yield. L’analyse technique montre une forte conviction depuis début mars, qui devrait se poursuivre. Nous favorisons les banques du sud de l’Europe, à la macro plus avenante. Aux côtés de CaixaBank, que nous conservons dans notre liste de valeurs Large Caps ...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Rheinmetall AG : FY 23 print in line – FY 24 operating profit guidance...

>FY 23 print pretty much in line with estimates - At first glance, FY 2023 results came in broadly in line with expectations with operating results at € 918m (Vara Consensus: € 922.8m) for sales of € 7,176m, up by 10.6% l-f-l, representing a margin of 12.8% (+80bp). EBIT pre PPA reached € 968m. As a reminder, about € 0.4bn of sales have been pushed into FY 24 in trucks and weapon & ammunitions. Operating margins in the various segments were also broadly in line with e...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Rheinmetall AG : FY 23 print in line – FY 24 operating profit guidance...

>FY 23 print pretty much in line with estimates - At first glance, FY 2023 results came in broadly in line with expectations with operating results at € 918m (Vara Consensus: € 922.8m) for sales of € 7,176m, up by 10.6% l-f-l, representing a margin of 12.8% (+80bp). EBIT pre PPA reached € 968m. As a reminder, about € 0.4bn of sales have been pushed into FY 24 in trucks and weapon & ammunitions. Operating margins in the various segments were also broadly in line with e...

Fabian Semon ... (+3)
  • Fabian Semon
  • Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
  • Jean-François Granjon

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/22/2023

Prysmian, the unrivalled global leader with an around 8% market share, is a key player in all cable segments. With a significant footprint in Europe and North America, it is seeing its project backlog (€ 10bn) accelerate. Yet we expect modest growth in view of the prevailing macroeconomic environment, corresponding to the lower end of the range for the Connect to Lead plan for 2027 (2022-2027e EBITDA CAGR of +5.0%, +6.1% based on the midpoint). We calculate a target price of € 40 and ...

Fabian Semon ... (+3)
  • Fabian Semon
  • Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
  • Jean-François Granjon

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 22/11/2023

Leader mondial (8% de PdM), Prysmian est incontournable sur tous les segments de marché du câble. Fortement implanté en Europe et Amérique du Nord, le groupe bénéficie d’un backlog Projets (10 Md€) en accélération. Pour autant, nous avons retenu une croissance modérée compte tenu du contexte macroéconomique actuel, correspondant au bas de fourchette du Plan 2027 « Connect to lead » (TMVA 2022/27e de 5.0% pour l’EBITDA, +6.1% sur la base du milieu de fourchette). Nous calculons un obje...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Rheinmetall AG : Growth, profitability and FCF generation, clear skies...

>2026 guidance ahead of expectations and strong FCF generation - Rheinmetall yesterday held a CMD where it unveiled its targets for 2026, with i/ sales of between € 13bn and € 14bn, ii/ an operating margin (before PPA) of over 15% (previous target >13% in 2025) and iii/ cash conversion now defined as FCF/EBIT of above 50%. The middle of the range works out at 11.6%, ahead of the VA consensus. While profitability in the civil segment, Power System, was, not surprisingl...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Rheinmetall AG : Croissance, rentabilité et génération de FCF, l’horiz...

>Des objectifs 2026 supérieurs aux attentes et une forte génération de FCF - Rheinmetall a tenu hier un CMD où il a dévoilé ses objectifs pour 2026 dont i/ un CA compris entre 13 et 14 Md€, ii/ une marge opérationnelle (avant PPA) supérieure à 15% (précédent objectif >13% en 2025) et iii/ une conversion cash désormais définie comme FCF/EBIT supérieure à 50%. Le milieu de fourchette ressort 11.6% au-delà des attentes du consensus VA. Si la rentabilité de l’activité civ...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Rheinmetall AG : Qu’attendre du CMD du 21 novembre ? OC relevé à 307 €

>CMD les 20 et 21 novembre - Rheinmetall tiendra son CMD du 20 au 21 novembre avec au programme une visite du site de fabrication de munitions de Unterlüß avant une journée de présentations. Nous attendons notamment une mise à jour des objectifs financiers moyen terme, des détails sur la montée en cadence d’Expal, une quantification des effets de levier opérationnels et un point sur l’allocation de capital.Encore un peu de marge de manœuvre vis-à vis du c...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Rheinmetall AG : What can we expect from the CMD on 21 November? TP li...

>CMD on 20 and 21 November - Rheinmetall will hold its CMD from 20 to 21 November, with a visit to the Unterlüß ammunition manufacturing site before a day of presentations. In particular, we expect an update on medium-term financial targets, details of the Expal ramp-up, quantification of operating leverage and an update on capital allocation.Still a little leeway vis-à vis the consensus - In November 2022, Rheinmetall set 2025 targets of i/ sales in ...

Olfa Taamallah ... (+2)
  • Olfa Taamallah
  • Yan Derocles

Rheinmetall AG : FY 2023 guidance largely de-risked – Sales potential ...

>A strong Q3 driven by Weapon & Ammunition - As a reminder, Rheinmetall already released its preliminary figures on 25 October as Q3 earnings were exceeding consensus expectations. EBIT came out at € 191m (ODDO BHF: € 165.4m, Vara consensus: € 165.4m). This performance is mainly coming from the Weapon & ammunition division with a margin up 740bp (even higher than in Q2) benefiting from positive product mix but also a leverage effect thanks to a marked increase in volu...

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