EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
• Turkey macro: the real assessment begins now • Macro Europe: ECB baby steps, as expected • Krka: 4Q23 earnings hit by an unspecified one-off • Richter: new pharma levy, but this can be offset against the Global Minimum Tax • PCF Group: over 30 people laid off, related to Project Gemini • Hidroelectrica: 2023 preliminary figures and 2024E budget to be published today, after the close • Petrom: 4Q23E earnings preview (due out on 1 February)
A director at Krka Tovarna Zdravil DD bought 400 shares at 109.000EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...
Three Directors at Zavarovalnica Triglav D.D bought 1,050 shares at 30.700EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • ADNOC Distribution: fuelled by non-fuel (stays BUY) • Allegro: 3Q23 results a notch above expectations; guidance for a strong 4Q23E in Poland POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: better-than-expected 3Q23, solid 2023-24E outlook but also higher capex guidance POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: qoq margin expansion in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Krka: 3Q results normalising, in line with our FY23E outlook NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual 3Q23 numbers fully in line with preliminaries NEUTRAL • VIGO Photon...
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
HEADLINES: • Turkey macro: CBT delivers an underwhelming hike • Alro: 2Q23 trading update • Krka: takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Polish media: Viaplay exits Poland POSITIVE • CCC: 2Q23E prelims preview - PLN 69m EBIT expected (due on 8-9 August, TBC) NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: 2Q23E preview - 10% yoy drop in adjusted EBITDA expected (due on 16 August) • Asseco Poland: 2Q23E preview -16% yoy net profit drop expected (due on 24 August)
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: MPC conveys dovish hint • Turkey macro: VAT increases as budget deteriorates • Krka: preliminary 2Q operating earnings in line with FY23E forecasts NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: PZU wants to change Supervisory Board mix • Wirtualna Polska: real users in June 2023 NEUTRAL
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • KazMunayGas: untapped potential - from oil to dividends (BUY - initiation of coverage) • HELLENiQ Energy: 1Q23 results - EBITDA beats expectations • Krka: strong 1Q23 numbers but margins should compress POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 1Q23 results beat expectations but margin compression worrying NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 1Q23 in line with our estimates but below consensus, some upside to our FY GPM POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: 1Q23 earnings call takeaways - greater LT market po...
EME Equity Market – April 2023 Market performance – in the black across all geographies, except for Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.9% mom in USD in April. The Polish WIG20 Index saw the biggest gains (+11.5% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+7.8% mom in EUR terms) and the Greek ASE Index (+2.9% mom in EUR terms). More muted performances were witnessed in the Czech PX Index and Romanian BET Index, both adding 1.7% mom in EUR terms for th...
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: NBP extends hold • Pilulka Lekarny: weak FY22 earnings, proposed capital increase of up to 500k new shares NEGATIVE • Bank Millennium: to add PLN 821m of FX mortgage litigation risk provisions NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: preliminary 1Q23 bookings -15% yoy and -8% qoq NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: real users in March 2022 NEUTRAL • Greek banks: floating-rate mortgages to be frozen at current levels • Purcari Wineries: BoD proposes a RON 0.55 DPS (6% DY), in line with expec...
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: discounted valuation call (upgraded to BUY) • EME macro/strategy: global macro - forecasts changes • OPAP: 4Q22 review - strongest GGR and EBITDA, total FY22 DPS of EUR 1.45 • Aegean Airlines: 4Q22 - strong performance at the year-end, and upbeat outlook for 2023E POSITIVE • Verbund: 4Q22 results in line, total proposed DPS at EUR 3.6 • Krka: final 4Q22 results slightly better than the prelims NEUTRAL • KazMunaiGas EP: 2022 financial results and conference call takeaway...
EME Equity Market – January 2023 Market performance – strong start to 2023 in Czechia and Greece; multi-month rally interrupted in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.2% mom in EUR terms and 4.6% mom in USD in January. The Czech PX and the Greek ASE were the best performers, posting double-digit gains of 12.3% and 10.0% mom in EUR terms, respectively. There were also very decent performances from Poland, Hungary and Romania, with gains of 5.5% mom, 5.5% mom and 4.7% mom in EUR terms, respe...
HEADLINES: • Mytilineos: strong 2022, setting the base for 2023E • US macro: domestic activity continues to lose momentum • Krka: record sales in Russia drive operations, FX revaluation hits the bottom line • Polish telecoms: Vectra increases prices by 14%, in line with CPI POSITIVE • Wizz Air: 3QFY23 - RASK in line with guidance, CASK gradually improving, liquidity remains solid • Teraplast: 4Q22E earnings preview (due out on 1 February) • OMV: 4Q22E results preview (due out on 2 Februar...
HEADLINES: • Bank Handlowy: cash is king - dividend in the limelight (stays BUY) • EME Strategy: OFEs' 2022 annual holdings • Wizz Air: 3QFY23 - RASK in line with guidance, CASK gradually improving, liquidity remains solid NEUTRAL • Titan Cement: trading update - very strong 4Q22 POSITIVE • Polish banks: credit holidays may be extended to 2024E • PKO BP: issues PLN 3.5bn of MREL-eligible instruments • PKN Orlen: signs a new LNG supply contract with Sempra • Arcelik: strong bottom-line beat...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: how Russia's fallout is reshaping CIS-plus • 11 bit studios: uninspiring 3Q22 EBITDA, slightly above our expectations, but below consensus NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: 3Q22 EBITDA rises by a solid 26% yoy, 8% ahead of consensus POSITIVE • Krka: margins rebound qoq on Russian stockpiling, books FX revaluation losses NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: 3Q22 - tenants' sales 17% above pre-pandemic levels in the summer POSITIVE • Electrica: takeaways from the 3Q22 earnings call POS...
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