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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Sofina: Portfolio companies doing rather well, NAV dampened by USD weakness. Coverage change

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+5)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
Guy Sips ... (+8)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update September: Adding AB InBev and Exor

In this September update we added 2 stocks to the KBC Securities Dynamic Top Pick List : We added AB InBev after the share price weakened post-2Q results. ABI's 2Q volumes fell 1.9% organically, below expectations, mainly due to a 9% drop in Brazil where a price hike led to temporary market share loss. However, strong revenue per hl growth (+4.9%) drove a 6.5% organic EBITDA increase, with 1H growth at +7.2%, near the top of FY guidance (+4–8%). AB InBev, the world's largest brewer, generates ...

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+6)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Wim Lewi
Livio Luyten
  • Livio Luyten

Bois Sauvage A Bitter Past With A Sweet Future

Bois Sauvage's Chocolate Group has delivered consistent results over the last years. In FY24, sales were up 6.7% to €283.6m and EBITDA rose 11.6% to €68.2m. This despite cocoa and butter price pressures. We forecast an uptick in fair value for the division, driven by the continued sales growth. In addition, topping out cocoa prices offer a catalyst for improved margins in FY27. The stake in Berenberg's commission driven business is expected to grow as well, supported by expanding sector multiple...

Guy Sips ... (+3)
  • Guy Sips
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Wim Lewi
Livio Luyten
  • Livio Luyten

Sofina Cognita €6bn deal collapse impacts Sofina's 13.4% stake

A €6bn private equity deal for Cognita, a UK-based private school operator and one of Sofina's key holdings, is on the brink of collapse. Jacobs Capital, the majority shareholder, aimed to sell a significant stake in Cognita in Apr'25. The stake sale to the primary bidders, Blackstone and CVC, is now unlikely to proceed, according to the Financial Times. The deal's failure stems from a valuation mismatch and the UK's new 20% VAT on private school fees, which has introduced market uncertainty. In...

Atenor SA: 1 director

A director at Atenor SA bought 8,121 shares at 3.060EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showi...

Livio Luyten
  • Livio Luyten

Holdings Report - July 2025 KBCS Holdings Universe Returns -0.5% Durin...

1M Performance - Absolute Total Return: During Jul'25 (1M period), the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a total return of -0.5% which was mainly driven by the performance of the multi-asset holdings (-0.9%), while the single-asset holdings posted a return of +0.4%. The 3 top performers during the period were Financière de Tubize (+11.7%), KBC Ancora (+9.4%) and Quest For Growth (+5.5%) while the 3 worst performers were Brederode (-6.4%), Heineken Holding (-5.0%) and D'Ieteren Group (-4.7%). YTD Pe...

Guy Sips ... (+3)
  • Guy Sips
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Michiel Declercq
ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ASM International: 2Q25 Results; Positive tone, weak orders. CM.com: 1H25 results; disappointing performance, guidance downgrade. Gimv: Gimv fuels Hemink's sustainable expansion. KPN: Solid 2Q25, guidance raised largely on €25m IPR claim benefit. Philips: 2Q25 Preview; improvement needed. Randstad: 2Q25 in line; outlook touch below; FX spoils the party but operational leverage story is unfolding. Sofina: Newsletter #16. Universal Music Group: EU opens in-depth investigation into Downtown ...

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+8)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste

Morning Notes : AVS NA, CSUA NA, GIMBb BB, KPNa NA, RANDa NA, SOFb BB,...

: AVS NA, CSUA NA, GIMBb BB, KPNa NA, RANDa NA, SOFb BB, N4SA NA, PHVS US

Compagnie du Bois Sauvage S.A.: 1 director

A director at Compagnie du Bois Sauvage S.A. sold 112 shares at 256.180EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...

Guy Sips ... (+9)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update July: Removing Fagron and Melexis, Adding...

Since the last publication of our Dynamic Top Pick List on 5 June 2025, our selection has seen again a nice outperformance versus the reverence indices (AEX, Bel20 and Eurostoxx50) of on average 3.3%. Our July update brings 3 adjustments to the list : Since being added to the list in December 2024, Fagron's share price has surged +/-22%, driven by strong Q1 2025 results and robust growth across all regions. Fagron reaffirmed its FY25 guidance and unveiled its “Compounding for Growth” strategy, ...

EXMAR NV: 1 director

A director at EXMAR NV bought 35,243 shares at 11.500EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 61/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Colruyt: Intermarché to take over 81 integrated Colruyt stores in France. Colruyt: FY24/25 in line with updated guidance, cautious FY25/26 outlook. Sofina: Cognita exit looks to be pending

Guy Sips ... (+5)
  • Guy Sips
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
Wim Lewi
  • Wim Lewi

Dollar Weakness The impact on our Benelux Coverage

In general, a weaker USD has a negative impact on Benelux stocks, particularly for companies with significant exports to the US. In this note we selected a list of companies with high US export exposure and we examine the potential impact on FY25 earninings. On top of the weak dollar, rising trade tensions or the introduction of tariffs further harm Benelux exporters. As the dollar depreciates against the euro, European goods become costlier for American consumers. At the same time, revenues ear...

Livio Luyten
  • Livio Luyten

Holdings Report May 2025 KBCS Holdings Universe Returns 2.2% During Ma...

1M Performance - Absolute: During May'25 (1M period), the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a return of +2.2% which was mainly driven by multi-asset holdings (+2.6%) while single-asset holdings posted a smaller return of +1.2%. The 3 top performers during the period were Gimv (+12.1%), KBC Ancora (+11.1%) and Ackermans & van Haaren (+4.1%) while the 3 worst performers were Solvac (-2.8%), Groupe Bruxelles Lambert (-0.8%) and Heineken Holding (-0.3%). YTD Performance - Relative: On a YTD basis (as o...

Guy Sips ... (+11)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Livio Luyten
  • Lynn Hautekeete
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Dynamic Top Pick List Update June: Removing Merus, Shurgard and Adyen ...

In this June update, we've made four adjustments to the KBC Securities Dynamic Top Pick List: 1.Merus (Removed – 27 May) was removed following the release of strong interim Phase 2 data at the ASCO 2025 conference. Its lead asset, petosemtamab, in combination with Keytruda, showed a 63% overall response rate in first-line treatment of head and neck cancer—significantly outperforming Keytruda monotherapy. The resulting share price surge validated our investment thesis. 2. Adyen (Removed) has de...

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