Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor reported Q1 results in line with expectations. However, we continue to see valuation downside due to Empire Wind risks and a likely sharp YOY drop in 2026e buybacks. OKEA also reported in-line Q1 results. In other news, Equinor announced it agreed to sell its 60% Peregrino stake at a solid price, although we believe the proceeds would have to support near-term shareholder returns to drive a positive share price reaction.

A waiting game worth joining

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 29 April 2025

Energy Morning - 28 April 2025

Lime Technologies (Sell, TP: SEK355.00) - Remain cautious

Softness in Expert Services kept organic growth at only 10%, and with the macroeconomic uncertainty, we see a risk that weaker growth will continue in the coming quarters. We reiterate our SELL and SEK355 target price.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Vår Energi reported Q1 results very much in line with expectations. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and maintained its dividend. Also, OKEA reported a solid Q1, with production and prices slightly above our estimates. While a technical goodwill impairment reduces its dividend basket for 2025, we view this as non-material, as we do not expect any dividends before 2027. Meanwhile, we are 5% below consensus on Q1e EBIT ahead of Equinor’s Q1 results on 30 April (07:00 CET), ...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 25/04/2025

Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: Reserves addition much larger than expected – YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%). This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves - an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production. The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in G...

Solid NCS production in March

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for March showed liquids production of 1,972kboed (1.6% above its forecast) and gas production of 351mcm/d (0.4% above its forecast). Overall, production was 4.18mmboed (1.1% above its forecast), flat MOM, but down 4.9% YOY. Company-wise, the February production figures should be well known as most companies have already reported their production figures for Q1.

Energy Morning - 23 April 2025

OKEA (Buy, TP: NOK23.00) - Solid start to the year

A solid Q1 trading update included net production and realised prices just above our estimates. A technical goodwill impairment (due to lower forward prices) effectively reducing OKEA’s dividend basket for 2025; however, we do not consider this material as we do not expect it to pay any dividends until 2027. Still, with the stock trading at an EV/2P of USD3.8/boe, well below recent NCS transactions at ~USD10/boe, we reiterate our BUY and NOK23 target price.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 22 April 2025

Lime Technologies (Sell, TP: SEK355.00) - Expecting soft Q1 consulting...

We are 1% below Bloomberg consensus on Q1e sales and in line on EBITDA, reflecting our view of another slow quarter for Expert Services but a still-solid performance by the Software business (results due at 07:50 CET on 24 April). Due to the recent strong share performance and cuts to our estimates (2025–2027e adj. EPS lowered by an average of 3.5%), we have downgraded to SELL (HOLD) and reduced our target price to SEK355 (375).

Stress testing

We have stress-tested our coverage universe at a USD60/bbl oil price, concluding that most names remain dependent on rising oil prices to warrant upside potential from current share prices. Moreover, unless oil prices move higher, we see increasing risk of cuts in shareholder distributions for Vår Energi and Equinor, while the risk appears lower for Aker BP. Overall, we remain cautious as macro risks remain tilted to the downside. We continue to prefer Aker BP as it screens best on valuation and...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor, Aker BP, and Vår Energi released their Q1 trading updates. Equinor’s realised liquids prices were broadly in line with consensus across all segments. Aker BP reported a modest production beat, 2% above consensus, with realised liquids and gas prices largely as expected. Vår Energi’s Q1 production was 2% below our estimate and consensus, while realised liquids prices met expectations and gas prices exceeded them by 4–11%.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published previews for most of our coverage universe. For Aker BP, we estimate solid Q1 production of 450kboed, with our EBITDA forecast 12% above consensus, ahead of the trading update on 7 April. For Vår Energi, we expect a slow start to the year, with Q1e production of 277kboed, leaving our EBITDA c7% below consensus, ahead of the trading update on 11 April. In other news, Johan Castberg reached first oil this week, with ramp-up expected through Q2 2025.