reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
Altice Pre-3Q24 Model Update
This report covers changes to our model to incorporate recent management commentary at investor conferences. We have increased broadband losses estimate. We also lowered revenue and EBITDA slightly. The company needs to stabilize EBITDA and reduce leverage. Progress on the first remains sluggish and the second won’t be easy. We remain on the sidelines.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU TELECOMS REFRESH: Can the outperformance continue?
When was the last time we could write that the EU Telecoms sector has been the second best performing sector in the market YTD? As a result, this raises the question of whether the outperformance can continue. We believe regulation will ultimately determine the answer to this question.
- Chris Hoare
EMEA & African Telcos & Towers - High Yield Review – Initiate Coverage...
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Iliad (Equal Weight) Q2 24: Strong performance, but slower MSR growth...
Iliad has posted yet another quarter of good results; key SR trends are all slightly better, as is EBITDAaL inc and ex BTS. For those looking for a read across to SFR results later today, French MSR growth is a touch slower, as are both French fixed and mobile net adds, which could mean SFR has better KPIs but weaker SR trends in our view (albeit the back book changes from SFR could be a key offset).
- Chris Hoare
- Russell Waller
Altice France (Most Preferred) Altice International (Most Preferred) ...
Sotheby’s has announced that it has sold a minority stake to ADQ, an Abu Dhabi-based investment and holding company for US$1bn. Under the terms of the agreement, “ADQ will acquire newly issued shares of Sotheby’s to reduce leverage and support the company’s growth and innovation plans” – details are thin, but in this short piece we look at how the proceeds might be used and how the price compares to our valaution.
- Russell Waller
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Russell Waller
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14.3, +40%) Q2 24: EBITDAaL beat, some guidance upg...
Orange has reported a very solid set of results, with Telco EBITDA c+0.7% ahead of consensus. AME and Europe EBITDAaL guidance has been lifted, but Group EBITDAaL guidance has been left unchanged, as the delta in AME and Europe is not yet big enough to move the Group numbers.
- Vikash Harlalka
2Q24 Broadband Preview
Broadband industry growth has slowed over the last couple of quarters. For 2Q24, we expect reported broadband net adds below last year and pre-pandemic levels. We estimate that after adjusting for the one-time impact of ACP related disconnects, net adds were still below last year but were in-line with pre-pandemic levels. We think consensus expectations for the quarter are a little too negative, especially for Cable, and we expect reported adds to be slightly better than expectations.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
EU Telecoms: Half-time report 2024 Sector should still be able to out...
European Telecoms has had a reasonable first half of 2024 – up 7% vs. the market up 9% - and is up 15% since January 2022 – bang in line with the EU market. The sector trades in line with the market on P/E for similar earnings growth, but we still see two major structural levers of upside:
- Russell Waller
Feedback from call with Orange IR on French pricing - back book increa...
We hosted a call with Orange IR to discuss the pricing environment. Watch a replay of the call HERE. We provide a summary of the call in this short piece. Interestingly, it looks as though SFR has lifted some of its back book prices for some of its customers.
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Solid top line, decent overall performan...
Q1 was a solid quarter for the Sub-Saharan African operators, especially from a top line perspective. Airtel Africa continued to outperform peers overall. We continue to think that fundamentals for AAF and MTN are strong and deserve more attention. Valuations are compelling too.
- Russell Waller
- Jonathan Chaplin
Altice Model Update
Broadband subscriber losses in 2Q24 will likely be better than we thought previously because more of the ACP impact will be in 3Q24 than we thought previously (full year estimate remains unchanged). We also lowered revenue and EBITDA slightly. The company needs to stabilize EBITDA and reduce leverage. Progress on the first is slow and the second won’t be easy as it seems debtholders have organized. We remain on the sidelines.
- Jonathan Chaplin
1Q24 Broadband Trends
In this iteration of “Broadband Trends” we explore the drivers of the slowdown in the broadband market and the path ahead over the next couple of quarters as the industry works through the unwinding of ACP. We also reprise our work on the competitive positioning of the various operators based on relative NPS scores.
- Russell Waller
Orange (Buy, TP: €14, +47%) Altice France (SFR) - Most preferred Ilia...
There has been a lot of focus on the recent change in mobile price points from SFR/Bouygues. Orange has underperformed the CAC40 by c10% over the last 10 days. Most commentary we have seen, seems to worry that the move by SFR will start a new price war at the high end. We think that is probably not going to happen, and explain why in this report. That is good news for Orange, that looks oversold in our view.
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